Fixation times in evolutionary games under weak selection

In evolutionary game dynamics, reproductive success increases with the performance in an evolutionary game. If strategy $A$ performs better than strategy $B$, strategy $A$ will spread in the population. Under stochastic dynamics, a single mutant will sooner or later take over the entire population or go extinct. We analyze the mean exit times (or average fixation times) associated with this process. We show analytically that these times depend on the payoff matrix of the game in an amazingly simple way under weak selection, ie strong stochasticity: The payoff difference $\Delta \pi$ is a linear function of the number of $A$ individuals $i$, $\Delta \pi = u i + v$. The unconditional mean exit time depends only on the constant term $v$. Given that a single $A$ mutant takes over the population, the corresponding conditional mean exit time depends only on the density dependent term $u$. We demonstrate this finding for two commonly applied microscopic evolutionary processes.Comment: Forthcoming in New Journal of Physic

Isolation of Salmonella enterica in seropositive classified finishing pig herds

The aim of this study was to assess the probability of detecting Salmonella from pen faecal samples in seropositive classified finishing pig herds. The study involved 77 herds from Denmark (20), the Netherlands (20), Greece (17) and Germany (20). The serological herd status was determined by the blood- sampling of 50 finishing pigs. Bacteriological sampling was performed by 20 pen faecal samples per herd. Over-all, 47 % of the blood samples had an OD% larger than 10 and 23 % larger than 40. Salmonella was isolated from 135 (9.3 %) pen faecal samples in 32 herds (42 %). Twenty-eight of these herds (87.5 %) had a within-herd seroprevalence larger than 50% at sample cut-off OD%\u3e10. A correlation coefficient of 0.62 was found between the proportion of culture positive- and seropositive samples in a herd at cut-off OD % \u3e 10 and of 0.58 at cut-off OD % \u3e 40. Due to the low sensitivity of culture methods, apparent ‘false positive’ serological results may well represent real infections not detected by bacteriological testing. In this study, there was an increasing probability of recovering Salmonella with increasing within-herd seroprevalence

The edge of neutral evolution in social dilemmas

The functioning of animal as well as human societies fundamentally relies on cooperation. Yet, defection is often favorable for the selfish individual, and social dilemmas arise. Selection by individuals' fitness, usually the basic driving force of evolution, quickly eliminates cooperators. However, evolution is also governed by fluctuations that can be of greater importance than fitness differences, and can render evolution effectively neutral. Here, we investigate the effects of selection versus fluctuations in social dilemmas. By studying the mean extinction times of cooperators and defectors, a variable sensitive to fluctuations, we are able to identify and quantify an emerging 'edge of neutral evolution' that delineates regimes of neutral and Darwinian evolution. Our results reveal that cooperation is significantly maintained in the neutral regimes. In contrast, the classical predictions of evolutionary game theory, where defectors beat cooperators, are recovered in the Darwinian regimes. Our studies demonstrate that fluctuations can provide a surprisingly simple way to partly resolve social dilemmas. Our methods are generally applicable to estimate the role of random drift in evolutionary dynamics.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figure

Large Fluctuations and Fixation in Evolutionary Games

We study large fluctuations in evolutionary games belonging to the coordination and anti-coordination classes. The dynamics of these games, modeling cooperation dilemmas, is characterized by a coexistence fixed point separating two absorbing states. We are particularly interested in the problem of fixation that refers to the possibility that a few mutants take over the entire population. Here, the fixation phenomenon is induced by large fluctuations and is investigated by a semi-classical WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) theory generalized to treat stochastic systems possessing multiple absorbing states. Importantly, this method allows us to analyze the combined influence of selection and random fluctuations on the evolutionary dynamics \textit{beyond} the weak selection limit often considered in previous works. We accurately compute, including pre-exponential factors, the probability distribution function in the long-lived coexistence state and the mean fixation time necessary for a few mutants to take over the entire population in anti-coordination games, and also the fixation probability in the coordination class. Our analytical results compare excellently with extensive numerical simulations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our treatment is superior to the Fokker-Planck approximation when the selection intensity is finite.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, to appear in JSTA

Quiet-Sun imaging asymmetries in NaI D1 compared with other strong Fraunhofer lines

Imaging spectroscopy of the solar atmosphere using the NaI D1 line yields marked asymmetry between the blue and red line wings: sampling a quiet-Sun area in the blue wing displays reversed granulation, whereas sampling in the red wing displays normal granulation. The MgI b2 line of comparable strength does not show this asymmetry, nor does the stronger CaII 8542 line. We demonstrate the phenomenon with near-simultaneous spectral images in NaI D1, MgI b2, and CaII 8542 from the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. We then explain it with line-formation insights from classical 1D modeling and with a 3D magnetohydrodynamical simulation combined with NLTE spectral line synthesis that permits detailed comparison with the observations in a common format. The cause of the imaging asymmetry is the combination of correlations between intensity and Dopplershift modulation in granular overshoot and the sensitivity to these of the steep profile flanks of the NaI D1 line. The MgI b2 line has similar core formation but much wider wings due to larger opacity buildup and damping in the photosphere. Both lines obtain marked core asymmetry from photospheric shocks in or near strong magnetic concentrations, less from higher-up internetwork shocks that produce similar asymmetry in the spatially averaged CaII 8542 profile.Comment: Accepted by Astron & Astrophys. In each in-text citation the year links to the corresponding ADS abstract pag

Herd-level risk factors for the introduction and spread of Salmonella in pig herds

Salmonella has been identified in all stages of pork production. Effons to decrease the Salmonella burden on society should be targeted at all levels of the production chain. One of the greatest challenges for Salmonella free or controlled pork production lies in identifying effective measures that can be taken at the herd-level

Evolutionary Games with Affine Fitness Functions: Applications to Cancer

We analyze the dynamics of evolutionary games in which fitness is defined as an affine function of the expected payoff and a constant contribution. The resulting inhomogeneous replicator equation has an homogeneous equivalent with modified payoffs. The affine terms also influence the stochastic dynamics of a two-strategy Moran model of a finite population. We then apply the affine fitness function in a model for tumor-normal cell interactions to determine which are the most successful tumor strategies. In order to analyze the dynamics of concurrent strategies within a tumor population, we extend the model to a three-strategy game involving distinct tumor cell types as well as normal cells. In this model, interaction with normal cells, in combination with an increased constant fitness, is the most effective way of establishing a population of tumor cells in normal tissue.Comment: The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.com, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13235-011-0029-

A European longitudinal study in Salmonella seronegative-and seropositive classified finishing pig herds

A study was performed to assess the stability of an assigned Salmonella status of finishing pig herds over time, seasonal variation in the incidence of herd infections, the herd incidence of Salmonella infections from the grower to the finisher production stage and the correlation between serological and bacteriological herd classification