Modeling Customer Lifetimes with Multiple Causes of Churn

Customer retention and customer churn are key metrics of interest to marketers, but little attention has been placed on linking the different reasons for which customers churn to their value to a contractual service provider. In this paper, we put forth a hierarchical competing-risk model to jointly model when customers choose to terminate their service and why. Some of these reasons for churn can be influenced by the firm (e.g., service problems or price–value trade-offs), but others are uncontrollable (e.g., customer relocation and death). Using this framework, we demonstrate that the impact of a firm's efforts to reduce customer churn for controllable reasons is mitigated by the prevalence of uncontrollable ones, resulting in a “damper effect” on the return from a firm's retention marketing efforts. We use data from a provider of land-based telecommunication services to demonstrate how the competing-risk model can be used to derive a measure of the incremental customer value that a firm can expect to accrue through its efforts to delay churn, taking this damper effect into account. In addition to varying across customers based on geodemographic information, the magnitude of the damper effect depends on a customer's tenure to date. We discuss how our framework can be used to tailor the firm's retention strategy to individual customers, both in terms of which customers to target and when retention efforts should be deployed

Sensing distress – towards a blended method for detecting and responding to problematic customer experience events

Excellent Customer Experience (CE) is a strategic priority for many large service organisations in a competitive marketplace. CE should be seamless, and in most cases it is, with customers ordering, paying for and receiving services that align with their expectations. However, in rare cases, an exceptional process event leads to service delivery delay or failure, and both the customer and organ-isation end up in complex recovery situations as a result. Unless this recovery is handled effectively inefficiency, avoidable costs and brand damage can result. So how can organisations sense when these problems are occurring and how can they respond to avoid these negative consequences? Our paper proposes a blended methodology where process mining and qualitative user research com-bine to give a holistic picture of customer experience issues, derived from a par-ticular customer case study. We propose a theoretical model for detecting and responding to customer issues, and discuss the challenges and opportunities of such a model when applied in practice in large service organisations

Study on Chinese Tourism Web Sites' Distribution and Online Marketing Effects.

As a platform and carrier of tourism information, tourism websites (TWs) and online tourism marketing have deeply affected the tourism industry. The authors adopt a geographical perspective to analyze the distribution of Chinese tourism websites (CTWs), and statistical analysis with SPSS16.0 was conducted to explore the online marketing effects of CTWs, and some meaningful results has been produced: 1) The number of CTWs generally decreases from eastern China to central and western China, and are especially dominant in tourism developed provinces. 2) The number of tourists has strong statistical correlation with the number of CTWs. 3) The strongest correlation for inbound tourists is with hotel websites, and the highest correlation coefficient is 0.807 between the number of domestic tourist and resort websites. Both inbound and domestic tourists have a low correlation coefficient with travel agency websites (TA). 4) There exist some statistical models between tourist numbers and different kinds of CTWs. The results clearly unveil the marketing effects and correlation of CTWs and is helpful for further online marketing strategies

Strong negative self regulation of Prokaryotic transcription factors increases the intrinsic noise of protein expression

Background Many prokaryotic transcription factors repress their own transcription. It is often asserted that such regulation enables a cell to homeostatically maintain protein abundance. We explore the role of negative self regulation of transcription in regulating the variability of protein abundance using a variety of stochastic modeling techniques. Results We undertake a novel analysis of a classic model for negative self regulation. We demonstrate that, with standard approximations, protein variance relative to its mean should be independent of repressor strength in a physiological range. Consequently, in that range, the coefficient of variation would increase with repressor strength. However, stochastic computer simulations demonstrate that there is a greater increase in noise associated with strong repressors than predicted by theory. The discrepancies between the mathematical analysis and computer simulations arise because with strong repressors the approximation that leads to Michaelis-Menten-like hyperbolic repression terms ceases to be valid. Because we observe that strong negative feedback increases variability and so is unlikely to be a mechanism for noise control, we suggest instead that negative feedback is evolutionarily favoured because it allows the cell to minimize mRNA usage. To test this, we used in silico evolution to demonstrate that while negative feedback can achieve only a modest improvement in protein noise reduction compared with the unregulated system, it can achieve good improvement in protein response times and very substantial improvement in reducing mRNA levels. Conclusions Strong negative self regulation of transcription may not always be a mechanism for homeostatic control of protein abundance, but instead might be evolutionarily favoured as a mechanism to limit the use of mRNA. The use of hyperbolic terms derived from quasi-steady-state approximation should also be avoided in the analysis of stochastic models with strong repressors

Does Culture Impact Preferred Employee attributes in Complaint Handling Encounters?

Recently, Gruber et al.’s (2011) Kano study revealed that complaining customers in Saudi Arabia are less difficult to delight than UK customers. The present study investigates whether these differences are caused by different service sector development stages, as suggested in their study, or by cultural differences instead. Data were collected using Kano questionnaires from 151 respondents with complaining experience in Singapore. This country was chosen as it has a highly developed service economy (like the UK) but also a collectivistic culture (like Saudi Arabia). The analysis reveals that Singaporean customers show the same preferences as those in the UK. We consider this as a strong indicator for the suggested impact of the stage of service sector development rather than cultural differences on complaining customers’ preferences of frontline employee attributes. Our results support the findings by Gruber et al. (2011). By doing so, they surprisingly refute previous research which concluded that national culture plays a significant role in shaping customer expectations during complaint handling encounters. Our study especially corroborates the notion of a life cycle of quality attributes that had been found for goods and services and the preferred attributes of frontline employees dealing with customer complaints

UK experience of liver transplantation for erythropoietic protoporphyria

Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is characterised by excess production of free protoporphyrin from the bone marrow, most commonly due to deficiency of the enzyme ferrochelatase. Excess protoporphyrin gives rise to the cutaneous photosensitivity characteristic of the disease, and in a minority of patients leads to end-stage liver disease necessitating liver transplantation (LT). There is limited information regarding the timing, impact and long-term outcome of LT in such patients, thus we aimed to identify the indications and outcomes of all transplants performed for EPP in the UK using data from the UK Transplant Registry. Between 1987 and 2009, five patients underwent LT for EPP liver disease. Median follow-up was 60 months, and there were two deaths at 44 and 95 months from causes unrelated to liver disease. The remaining recipients are alive at 22.4 years, 61 months and 55 months after transplant. A high rate of postoperative biliary stricturing requiring multiple biliary interventions was observed. Recurrent EPP-liver disease occurred in 4/5 (80%) of patients but graft failure has not been observed. Given the role of biliary obstruction in inducing EPP-mediated liver damage, we suggest that consideration should be given for construction of a Roux loop at the time of transplant. Thus we demonstrate that although EPP liver transplant recipients have a good long-term survival, comparable to patients undergoing LT for other indications, biliary complications and disease recurrence are almost universal, and bone marrow transplantation should be considered where possible

The importance of service quality in British Muslim’s choice of an Islamic or non-Islamic bank account

Using an extended SERVQUAL model, this study identifies and compares the importance of service quality to Muslim consumers with an Islamic or non-Islamic bank account in a non-Muslim country, Britain. Eight group discussions and survey with 300 Muslims were conducted. Five dimensions of service quality were identified, i.e. Responsiveness, Credibility, Islamic Tangibles, Accessibility and Reputation. These differ in structure and content from the original SERVQUAL developed in the west and the subsequent CARTER model constructed in a Muslim country. In addition, significant differences were found in the importance rating of items by respondents holding an account with an Islamic bank compared to those with a non-Islamic bank account. This study is one of the first to identify and compare the importance of service quality between Islamic and non-Islamic bank account holders in a western non-Muslim country. The results advance our understanding of the impact of culture on SERVQUAL. The study provides insight into Muslims’ bank choice and helps bank managers of both Islamic and non-Islamic banks to focus their attention on the service quality dimensions that matter most to Muslim customers

Relationship Bonds and Customer Loyalty: A Study Across Different Service Contexts

The benefits of customer relationship strategies are well known and somewhat established nowadays. Customer loyalty emerges as the crucial glue in developing a relational approach. However, relational bonds, which relate to customer loyalty, have not yet been fully explored. Also, there is little research that takes into account the effect of service types on customer relationships and bonding. This paper develops a conceptual framework based on previous literature with a complete set of different relational bonds and examines its influence on customer loyalty across search, experience and credence services through a survey-based empirical study, with a sample of 233 consumers. The results provide guidance to managers to differentiate customer relationship strategies according to each specific service context

The behaviour of repeat visitors to museums: Review and empirical findings

This study presents a theoretical and operational framework for analysing repeat visit to museums. Starting from the literature on repeat visit in tourism, the specificities of these cultural attractions are made explicit through a review of theoretical and applied works. Consistently with previous contributors, the paper suggests that the analysis of actual past behaviours has to be preferred to the one of attitudes. The application of proper econometric models is also remarked in order to put into account individual profiles. Information coming from three techniques is then used in an integrated way in order to provide a more comprehensive view of the phenomenon. Evidence from an ad hoc survey suggests the necessity to give a greater attention to perceived cultural value during the visit, promoting cultural events during the week and addressed to children, and taking care of those visitors that come from far places also through an integrated tourist supply. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

Compulsive buying and branding phenomena

The purpose of this paper was to explore the impact of brand variables such as brand awareness, brand loyalty, brand attachment, and perceived brand quality on compulsive buying behavior. A self-administered questionnaire, containing demographic items and items related to compulsive buying, brand awareness, brand loyalty, brand attachment and perceived quality, was used to collect data. Participants were 269 US university students at a large mid-western university (138 men, 131 women; mean age = 21.96). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test and MANOVA/ANOVA. Reliability of all scales was acceptable. In the current study, 18% of the participants were classified as compulsive buyers. Women showed higher compulsive buying tendency than men. Participants with greater compulsive buying tendency scored higher on brand attachment and brand loyalty and lower on brand awareness; there was no difference in scores on perceived brand quality. Results support that brand variables such as brand awareness, brand loyalty, and brand attachment are related to compulsive buying behavior. New perceptions and implications for both academicians and practitioners are provided