The Performance of Photometric Reverberation Mapping at High Redshift and the Reliability of Damped Random Walk Models

This article has been accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society ©2019 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Accurate methods for reverberation mapping using photometry are highly sought after since they are inherently less resource intensive than spectroscopic techniques. However, the effectiveness of photometric reverberation mapping for estimating black hole masses is sparsely investigated at redshifts higher than $z\approx0.04$. Furthermore, photometric methods frequently assume a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model, which may not be universally applicable. We perform photometric reverberation mapping using the Javelin photometric DRW model for the QSO SDSSJ144645.44+625304.0 at z=0.351 and estimate the H$\beta$ lag of $65^{+6}_{-1}$ days and black-hole mass of $10^{8.22^{+0.13}_{-0.15}}M_{\odot}$. An analysis of the reliability of photometric reverberation mapping, conducted using many thousands of simulated CARMA process light-curves, shows that we can recover the input lag to within 6 per cent on average given our target's observed signal-to-noise of > 20 and an average cadence of 14 days (even when DRW is not applicable). Furthermore, we use our suite of simulated light curves to deconvolve aliases and artefacts from our QSO's posterior probability distribution, increasing the signal-to-noise on the lag by a factor of $\sim2.2$. We exceed the signal-to-noise of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping Project (SDSS-RM) campaign with a quarter of the observing time per object, resulting in a $\sim200$ per cent increase in SNR efficiency over SDSS-RM.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Reply: Screening for colorectal cancer with immunological FOBT

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Evolution of Star Formation in the UKIDSS Ultra Deep Survey Field - II. Star Formation as a Function of Stellar Mass Between z=1.46 and z=0.63

We present new results on the evolution of the cosmic star formation rate as a function of stellar mass in the SXDS-UDS field. We make use of narrow-band selected emission line galaxies in four redshift slices between z = 1.46 and z = 0.63, and compute stellar masses by fitting a series of templates to recreate each galaxy's star formation history. We determine mass-binned luminosity functions in each redshift slice, and derive the star formation rate density (rhoSFR) as a function of mass using the [OIII] or [OII] emission lines. We calculate dust extinction and metallicity as a function of stellar mass, and investigate the effect of these corrections on the shape of the overall rhoSFR(M). We find that both these corrections are crucial for determining the shape of the rhoSFR(M), and its evolution with redshift. The fully corrected rhoSFR(M) is a relatively flat distribution, with the normalisation moving towards lower values of rhoSFR with increasing cosmic time/decreasing redshift, and requiring star formation to be truncated across all masses studied here. The peak of rhoSFR(M) is found in the 10^10.5<Msun<10^11.0 mass bin at z = 1.46. In the lower redshift slices the location of the peak is less certain, however low mass galaxies in the range 10^7.0<Msun<10^8.0 play an important part in the overall rhoSFR(M) out to at least z ~ 1.2

H-ATLAS/GAMA: the nature and characteristics of optically red galaxies detected at submillimetre wavelengths

We combine Herschel/SPIRE sub-millimeter (submm) observations with existing multi-wavelength data to investigate the characteristics of low redshift, optically red galaxies detected in submm bands. We select a sample of galaxies in the redshift range 0.01≤z≤0.2, having >5σ detections in the SPIRE 250 micron submm waveband. Sources are then divided into two sub-samples of red and blue galaxies, based on their UV-optical colours. Galaxies in the red sample account for ≈4.2 per cent of the total number of sources with stellar masses M∗≳1010 Solar-mass. Following visual classification of the red galaxies, we find that ≳30 per cent of them are early-type galaxies and ≳40 per cent are spirals. The colour of the red-spiral galaxies could be the result of their highly inclined orientation and/or a strong contribution of the old stellar population. It is found that irrespective of their morphological types, red and blue sources occupy environments with more or less similar densities (i.e., the Σ5 parameter). From the analysis of the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies in our samples based on MAGPHYS, we find that galaxies in the red sample (of any morphological type) have dust masses similar to those in the blue sample (i.e. normal spiral/star-forming systems). However, in comparison to the red-spirals and in particular blue systems, red-ellipticals have lower mean dust-to-stellar mass ratios. Besides galaxies in the red-elliptical sample have much lower mean star-formation/specific-star-formation rates in contrast to their counterparts in the blue sample. Our results support a scenario where dust in early-type systems is likely to be of an external origin

Towards Real-Time Crowd Simulation Under Uncertainty Using an Agent-Based Model and an Unscented Kalman Filter

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is ideally suited to simulating crowds of people as it captures the complex behaviours and interactions between individuals that lead to the emergence of crowding. Currently, it is not possible to use ABM for real-time simulation due to the absence of established mechanisms for dynamically incorporating real-time data. This means that, although models are able to perform useful offline crowd simulations, they are unable to simulate the behaviours of crowds in real time. This paper begins to address this drawback by demonstrating how a data assimilation algorithm, the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), can be used to incorporate pseudo-real data into an agent-based model at run time. Experiments are conducted to test how well the algorithm works when a proportion of agents are tracked directly under varying levels of uncertainty. Notably, the experiments show that the behaviour of unobserved agents can be inferred from the behaviours of those that are observed. This has implications for modelling real crowds where full knowledge of all individuals will never be known. In presenting a new approach for creating real-time simulations of crowds, this paper has important implications for the management of various environments in global cities, from single buildings to larger structures such as transportation hubs, sports stadiums, through to entire city regions

Central Powering of the Largest Lyman-alpha Nebula is Revealed by Polarized Radiation

High-redshift Lyman-alpha blobs are extended, luminous, but rare structures that appear to be associated with the highest peaks in the matter density of the Universe. Their energy output and morphology are similar to powerful radio galaxies, but the source of the luminosity is unclear. Some blobs are associated with ultraviolet or infrared bright galaxies, suggesting an extreme starburst event or accretion onto a central black hole. Another possibility is gas that is shock excited by supernovae. However some blobs are not associated with galaxies, and may instead be heated by gas falling into a dark matter halo. The polarization of the Ly-alpha emission can in principle distinguish between these options, but a previous attempt to detect this signature returned a null detection. Here we report on the detection of polarized Ly-alpha from the blob LAB1. Although the central region shows no measurable polarization, the polarized fraction (P) increases to ~20 per cent at a radius of 45 kpc, forming an almost complete polarized ring. The detection of polarized radiation is inconsistent with the in situ production of Ly-alpha photons, and we conclude that they must have been produced in the galaxies hosted within the nebula, and re-scattered by neutral hydrogen.Comment: Published in the August 18 issue of Nature. 1750 words, 3 figures, and full Supplementary Information. Version has not undergone proofing. Reduced and processed data products are available here: http://obswww.unige.ch/people/matthew.hayes/LymanAlpha/LabPol

Evaluation of the benefits, harms and cost‐effectiveness of potential alternatives to iFOBT testing for colorectal cancer screening in Australia

The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) will fully roll‐out 2‐yearly screening using the immunochemical Faecal Occult Blood Testing (iFOBT) in people aged 50 to 74 years by 2020. In this study, we aimed to estimate the comparative health benefits, harms, and cost‐effectiveness of screening with iFOBT, versus other potential alternative or adjunctive technologies. A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1‐Bowel, was used to simulate a total of 13 screening approaches involving use of iFOBT, colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, computed tomographic colonography (CTC), faecal DNA (fDNA) and plasma DNA (pDNA), in people aged 50 to 74 years. All strategies were evaluated in three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence, (ii) high (but imperfect) adherence, and (iii) low adherence. When assuming perfect adherence, the most effective strategies involved using iFOBT (annually, or biennially with/without adjunct sigmoidoscopy either at 50, or at 54, 64 and 74 years for individuals with negative iFOBT), or colonoscopy (10‐yearly, or once‐off at 50 years combined with biennial iFOBT). Colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) reductions for these strategies were 51–67(74–80)% in comparison with no screening; 2‐yearly iFOBT screening (i.e. the NBCSP) would be associated with reductions of 51(74)%. Only 2‐yearly iFOBT screening was found to be cost‐effective in all scenarios in context of an indicative willingness‐to‐pay threshold of A$50,000/life‐year saved (LYS); this strategy was associated with an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of A$2,984/LYS–A$5,981/LYS (depending on adherence). The fully rolled‐out NBCSP is highly cost‐effective, and is also one of the most effective approaches for bowel cancer screening in Australia

Outcomes from massive paracetamol overdose: a retrospective observational study

LINKED ARTICLE: This article is commented on by Bateman DN and Dear JW. Should we treat very large paracetamol overdose differently? Br J Clin Pharmacol 2017; 83: 1163–5. https://doi.org/10.1111/bcp.13279 AIMS: Treatment of paracetamol (acetaminophen) overdose with acetylcysteine is standardized, with dose determined only by patient weight. The validity of this approach for massive overdoses has been questioned. We systematically compared outcomes in massive and non-massive overdoses, to guide whether alternative treatment strategies should be considered, and whether the ratio between measured timed paracetamol concentrations (APAPpl) and treatment nomogram thresholds at those time points (APAPt) provides a useful assessment tool. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study of all patients (n = 545) between 2005 and 2013 admitted to a tertiary care toxicology service with acute non-staggered paracetamol overdose. Massive overdoses were defined as extrapolated 4-h plasma paracetamol concentrations >250 mg l−1, or reported ingestions ≥30 g. Outcomes (liver injury, coagulopathy and kidney injury) were assessed in relation to reported dose and APAPpl:APAPt ratio (based on a treatment line through 100 mg l−1 at 4 h), and time to acetylcysteine. RESULTS: Ingestions of ≥30 g paracetamol correlated with higher peak serum aminotransferase (r = 0.212, P < 0.0001) and creatinine (r = 0.138, P = 0.002) concentrations. Acute liver injury, hepatotoxicity and coagulopathy were more frequent with APAPpl:APAPt ≥ 3 with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 9.19 (5.04–16.68), 35.95 (8.80–158.1) and 8.34 (4.43–15.84), respectively (P < 0.0001). Heightened risk persisted in patients receiving acetylcysteine within 8 h of overdose. CONCLUSION: Patients presenting following massive paracetamol overdose are at higher risk of organ injury, even when acetylcysteine is administered early. Enhanced therapeutic strategies should be considered in those who have an APAPpl:APAPt ≥ 3. Novel biomarkers of incipient liver injury and abbreviated acetylcysteine regimens require validation in this patient cohort