Serum amyloid A: high-density lipoproteins interaction and cardiovascular risk

Aims High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) are considered as anti-atherogenic. Recent experimental findings suggest that their biological properties can be modified in certain clinical conditions by accumulation of serum amyloid A (SAA). The effect of SAA on the association between HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and cardiovascular outcome remains unknown. Methods and results We examined the association of SAA and HDL-C with mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study, which included 3310 patients undergoing coronary angiography. To validate our findings, we analysed 1255 participants of the German Diabetes and Dialysis study (4D) and 4027 participants of the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4 study. In LURIC, SAA concentrations predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In patients with low SAA, higher HDL-C was associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In contrast, in patients with high SAA, higher HDL-C was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, indicating that SAA indeed modifies the beneficial properties of HDL. We complemented these clinical observations by in vitro experiments, in which SAA impaired vascular functions of HDL. We further derived a formula for the simple calculation of the amount of biologically ‘effective' HDL-C based on measured HDL-C and SAA from the LURIC study. In 4D and KORA S4 studies, we found that measured HDL-C was not associated with clinical outcomes, whereas calculated ‘effective' HDL-C significantly predicted better outcome. Conclusion The acute-phase protein SAA modifies the biological effects of HDL-C in several clinical conditions. The concomitant measurement of SAA is a simple, useful, and clinically applicable surrogate for the vascular functionality of HD

Predicting glycated hemoglobin levels in the non-diabetic general population:Development and validation of the DIRECT-DETECT prediction model - a DIRECT study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To develop a prediction model that can predict HbA1c levels after six years in the non-diabetic general population, including previously used readily available predictors. METHODS: Data from 5,762 initially non-diabetic subjects from three population-based cohorts (Hoorn Study, Inter99, KORA S4/F4) were combined to predict HbA1c levels at six year follow-up. Using backward selection, age, BMI, waist circumference, use of anti-hypertensive medication, current smoking and parental history of diabetes remained in sex-specific linear regression models. To minimize overfitting of coefficients, we performed internal validation using bootstrapping techniques. Explained variance, discrimination and calibration were assessed using R2, classification tables (comparing highest/lowest 50% HbA1c levels) and calibration graphs. The model was externally validated in 2,765 non-diabetic subjects of the population-based cohort METSIM. RESULTS: At baseline, mean HbA1c level was 5.6% (38 mmol/mol). After a mean follow-up of six years, mean HbA1c level was 5.7% (39 mmol/mol). Calibration graphs showed that predicted HbA1c levels were somewhat underestimated in the Inter99 cohort and overestimated in the Hoorn and KORA cohorts, indicating that the model's intercept should be adjusted for each cohort to improve predictions. Sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) were 55.7% (53.9, 57.5) and 56.9% (55.1, 58.7) respectively, for women, and 54.6% (52.7, 56.5) and 54.3% (52.4, 56.2) for men. External validation showed similar performance in the METSIM cohort. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In the non-diabetic population, our DIRECT-DETECT prediction model, including readily available predictors, has a relatively low explained variance and moderate discriminative performance, but can help to distinguish between future highest and lowest HbA1c levels. Absolute HbA1c values are cohort-dependent

Temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factors and performance of the Framingham Risk Score and the Pooled Cohort Equations

Background The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) are established tools for the prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. In the Western world, decreases in incidence rates of CVD were observed over the last 30 years. Thus, we hypothesise that there are also temporal trends in the risk prediction performance of the FRS and PCE from 1990 to 2000. Methods We used data from n=7789 men and women aged 40-74 years from three prospective population-based cohort studies enrolled in Southern Germany in 1989/1990, 1994/1995 and 1999/2000. 10-year CVD risk was calculated by recalibrated equations of the FRS or PCE. Calibration was evaluated by percentage of overestimation and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. Discrimination performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and corresponding area under the curve (AUC). Results Across the three studies, we found significant temporal trends in risk factor distributions and predicted risks by both risk scores (men: 18.0%, 15.4%, 14.9%; women: 8.7%, 11.2%, 10.8%). Furthermore, also the discrimination performance evolved differently for men (AUC PCE: 76.4, 76.1, 72.8) and women (AUC PCE: 75.9, 79.5, 80.5). Both risk scores overestimated actual CVD risk. Conclusion There are temporal trends in the performance of the FRS and PCE. Although the overall performance remains adequate, sex-specific trends have to be taken into account for further refinement of risk prediction models

Ultra-sensitive troponin I is an independent predictor of incident coronary heart disease in the general population

Troponins are sensitive markers of myocardial injury and predictive of cardiovascular events, but conventional assays fail to detect slightly elevated troponins in a considerable proportion of the general population. Using a novel ultrasensitive assay, we explored the relationship of troponin levels with the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a case-cohort sample (mean age 52.5 ± 0.2 years, 51.5% women) comprising 803 CHD cases and 1942 non-cases. Ultrasensitive troponin I was detectable in 99.9% of available case-cohort samples. In an age- and sex-adjusted model, individuals in the highest quartile of the troponin distribution had a more than threefold increased risk for CHD events compared to those in the bottom quartile [hazard ratio, HR, 3.11; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.15-4.49]. In a model adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors including C-reactive protein, cystatin C and N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide, individuals in the highest troponin I quartile still showed a hazard ratio of 2.58 (95% CI 1.66-4.00) for incident CHD as compared to those in the lowest quartile. Ultrasensitive troponin I was detectable in almost all individuals of a study sample reflecting middle-aged to elderly European general population. Ultrasensitive troponin concentrations exhibit an independent, graded, positive relation with incident CHD

Association of subclinical inflammation with deterioration of glycaemia before the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: the KORA S4/F4 study

Aims/hypothesis The role of biomarkers of subclinical inflammation in the early deterioration of glycaemia before type 2 diabetes is largely unknown. We hypothesised that increased levels of circulating proinflammatory biomarkers and decreased circulating adiponectin would be associated with 7 year increases of HbA(1c) in non-diabetic individuals. Methods This study was based on individuals who participated in the prospective Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4 survey (1999-2001) and the 7 year follow-up KORA F4 (2006-2008) survey. Individuals with type 2 diabetes at baseline or with a diagnosis of diabetes in the period between both surveys were excluded, which left a sample of 850 men and women. Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to assess associations among baseline values of leucocyte count and levels of acute-phase proteins (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hsCRP], serum amyloid A [SAA] and fibrinogen), IL-6 and adiponectin with changes in HbA(1c) between baseline and follow-up. Results A high leucocyte count and high hsCRP, SAA and IL-6 levels were positively associated with changes in HbA(1c) after adjusting for age, sex, lifestyle factors and baseline HbA(1c). In contrast, the adiponectin level was inversely associated with changes in HbA(1c) (p value between < 0.0001 and 0.020). The associations of leucocyte count and levels of hsCRP and SAA with HbA(1c) changes remained significant after additional adjustment for waist circumference and circulating lipids at baseline and for the 7 year change in waist circumference (p value between 0.004 and 0.045). Conclusions/interpretation An elevated leucocyte count and elevated hsCRP and SAA were associated with early deterioration of glycaemia before the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. These associations were largely independent of baseline abdominal adiposity and increases in waist circumference

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts

Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany

MASP1, THBS1, GPLD1 and ApoA-IV are novel biomarkers associated with prediabetes: the KORA F4 study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Individuals at a high risk of type 2 diabetes demonstrate moderate impairments in glucose metabolism years before the clinical manifestation of type 2 diabetes, a state called &#39;prediabetes&#39;. In order to elucidate the pathophysiological processes leading to type 2 diabetes, we aimed to identify protein biomarkers associated with prediabetes. METHODS: In a proteomics study, we used targeted selected reaction monitoring (SRM)-MS to quantify 23 candidate proteins in the plasma of 439 randomly selected men and women aged 47-76&nbsp;years from the population-based German KORA F4 study. Cross-sectional associations of protein levels with prediabetes (impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance), type 2 diabetes, glucose levels in both the fasting state and 2&nbsp;h after an OGTT, fasting insulin and insulin resistance were investigated using regression models adjusted for technical covariables, age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol intake, physical inactivity, actual hypertension, triacylglycerol levels, total cholesterol/HDL-cholesterol ratio, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels. RESULTS: Mannan-binding lectin serine peptidase 1 (MASP1; OR per SD 1.77 [95% CI 1.26, 2.47]), thrombospondin 1 (THBS1; OR per SD 1.55 [95% CI 1.16, 2.07]) and glycosylphosphatidylinositol-specific phospholipase D1 (GPLD1; OR per SD 1.40 [95% CI 1.01, 1.94]) were positively associated with prediabetes, and apolipoprotein A-IV (ApoA-IV; OR per SD 0.75 [95% CI 0.56, 1.00]) was inversely associated with prediabetes. MASP1 was positively associated with fasting and 2&nbsp;h glucose levels. ApoA-IV was inversely and THBS1 was positively associated with 2&nbsp;h glucose levels. MASP1 associations with prediabetes and fasting glucose resisted Bonferroni correction. Type 2 diabetes associations were partly influenced by glucose-lowering medication. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We discovered novel and independent associations of prediabetes and related traits with MASP1, and some evidence for associations with THBS1, GPLD1 and ApoA-IV, suggesting a role for these proteins in the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes