Automatic disruption classification in JET with the ITER-like wall

The new full-metal ITER-like wall at JET was found to have a deep impact on the physics of disruptions at JET. In order to develop disruption classification, the 10D operational space of JET with the new ITER-like wall has been explored using the generative topographic mapping method. The 2D map has been exploited to develop an automatic disruption classification of several disruption classes manually identified. In particular, all the non-intentional disruptions have been considered, that occurred in JET from 2011 to 2013 with the new wall. A statistical analysis of the plasma parameters describing the operational spaces of JET with carbon wall and JET ITER-like wall has been performed and some physical considerations have been made on the difference between these two operational spaces and the disruption classes which can be identified. The performance of the JET- ITER-like wall classifier is tested in realtime in conjunction with a disruption predictor presently operating at JET with good results. Moreover, to validate and analyse the results, another reference classifier has been developed, based on the k-nearest neighbour technique. Finally, in order to verify the reliability of the performed classification, a conformal predictor based on non-conformity measures has been developed

Black Holes in Modified Gravity (MOG)

The field equations for Scalar-Tensor-Vector-Gravity (STVG) or modified gravity (MOG) have a static, spherically symmetric black hole solution determined by the mass $M$ with two horizons. The strength of the gravitational constant is $G=G_N(1+\alpha)$ where $\alpha$ is a parameter. A regular singularity-free MOG solution is derived using a nonlinear field dynamics for the repulsive gravitational field component and a reasonable physical energy-momentum tensor. The Kruskal-Szekeres completion of the MOG black hole solution is obtained. The Kerr-MOG black hole solution is determined by the mass $M$, the parameter $\alpha$ and the spin angular momentum $J=Ma$. The equations of motion and the stability condition of a test particle orbiting the MOG black hole are derived, and the radius of the black hole photosphere and the shadows cast by the Schwarzschild-MOG and Kerr-MOG black holes are calculated. A traversable wormhole solution is constructed with a throat stabilized by the repulsive component of the gravitational field.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures. Upgraded version of paper to match published version in European Physics Journal

Investigating poultry trade patterns to guide avian influenza surveillance and control: a case study in Vietnam

Live bird markets are often the focus of surveillance activities monitoring avian influenza viruses (AIV) circulating in poultry. However, in order to ensure a high sensitivity of virus detection and effectiveness of management actions, poultry management practices features influencing AIV dynamics need to be accounted for in the design of surveillance programmes. In order to address this knowledge gap, a cross-sectional survey was conducted through interviews with 791 traders in 18 Vietnamese live bird markets. Markets greatly differed according to the sources from which poultry was obtained, and their connections to other markets through the movements of their traders. These features, which could be informed based on indicators that are easy to measure, suggest that markets could be used as sentinels for monitoring virus strains circulating in specific segments of the poultry production sector. AIV spread within markets was modelled. Due to the high turn-over of poultry, viral amplification was likely to be minimal in most of the largest markets. However, due to the large number of birds being introduced each day, and challenges related to cleaning and disinfection, environmental accumulation of viruses at markets may take place, posing a threat to the poultry production sector and to public health

Mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services. Urban ecosystems

Action 5 of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 requires member states to Map and Assess the state of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES). This report provides guidance for mapping and assessment of urban ecosystems. The MAES urban pilot is a collaboration between the European Commission, the European Environment Agency, volunteering Member States and cities, and stakeholders. Its ultimate goal is to deliver a knowledge base for policy and management of urban ecosystems by analysing urban green infrastructure, condition of urban ecosystems and ecosystem services. This report presents guidance for mapping urban ecosystems and includes an indicator framework to assess the condition of urban ecosystems and urban ecosystem services. The scientific framework of mapping and assessment is designed to support in particular urban planning policy and policy on green infrastructure at urban, metropolitan and regional scales. The results are based on the following different sources of information: a literature survey of 54 scientific articles, an online-survey (on urban ecosystems, related policies and planning instruments and with participation of 42 cities), ten case studies (Portugal: Cascais, Oeiras, Lisbon; Italy: Padua, Trento, Rome; The Netherlands: Utrecht; Poland: Poznań; Spain: Barcelona; Norway: Oslo), and a two-day expert workshop. The case studies constituted the core of the MAES urban pilot. They provided real examples and applications of how mapping and assessment can be organized to support policy; on top, they provided the necessary expertise to select a set of final indicators for condition and ecosystem services. Urban ecosystems or cities are defined here as socio-ecological systems which are composed of green infrastructure and built infrastructure. Urban green infrastructure (GI) is understood in this report as the multi-functional network of urban green spaces situated within the boundary of the urban ecosystem. Urban green spaces are the structural components of urban GI. This study has shown that there is a large scope for urban ecosystem assessments. Firstly, urban policies increasingly use urban green infrastructure and nature-based solutions in their planning process. Secondly, an increasing amount of data at multiple spatial scales is becoming available to support these policies, to provide a baseline, and to compare or benchmark cities with respect to the extent and management of the urban ecosystem. Concrete examples are given on how to delineate urban ecosystems, how to choose an appropriate spatial scale, and how to map urban ecosystems based on a combination of national or European datasets (including Urban Atlas) and locally collected information (e.g., location of trees). Also examples of typologies for urban green spaces are presented. This report presents an indicator framework which is composed of indicators to assess for urban ecosystem condition and for urban ecosystem services. These are the result of a rigorous selection process and ensure consistent mapping and assessment across Europe. The MAES urban pilot will continue with work on the interface between research and policy. The framework presented in this report needs to be tested and validated across Europe, e.g. on its applicability at city scale, on how far the methodology for measuring ecosystem condition and ecosystem service delivery in urban areas can be used to assess urban green infrastructure and nature-based solutions

A falls prevention programme to improve quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older people receiving home help services: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Falls and fall-related injuries in older adults are associated with great burdens, both for the individuals, the health care system and the society. Previous research has shown evidence for the efficiency of exercise as falls prevention. An understudied group are older adults receiving home help services, and the effect of a falls prevention programme on health-related quality of life is unclear. The primary aim of this randomised controlled trial is to examine the effect of a falls prevention programme on quality of life, physical function and falls efficacy in older adults receiving home help services. A secondary aim is to explore the mediating factors between falls prevention and health-related quality of life. METHODS: The study is a single-blinded randomised controlled trial. Participants are older adults, aged 67 or older, receiving home help services, who are able to walk with or without walking aids, who have experienced at least one fall during the last 12 months and who have a Mini Mental State Examination of 23 or above. The intervention group receives a programme, based on the Otago Exercise Programme, lasting 12 weeks including home visits and motivational telephone calls. The control group receives usual care. The primary outcome is health-related quality of life (SF-36). Secondary outcomes are leg strength, balance, walking speed, walking habits, activities of daily living, nutritional status and falls efficacy. All measurements are performed at baseline, following intervention at 3 months and at 6 months' follow-up. Sample size, based on the primary outcome, is set to 150 participants randomised into the two arms, including an estimated 15-20% drop out. Participants are recruited from six municipalities in Norway. DISCUSSION: This trial will generate new knowledge on the effects of an exercise falls prevention programme among older fallers receiving home help services. This knowledge will be useful for clinicians, for health managers in the primary health care service and for policy makers

A re-introduction of environmental mite allergen control strategies for asthma treatment and the debate on their effectiveness

Asthma affects three hundred million people worldwide. The effectiveness of house dust mite allergen control for asthma treatment is debatable. One aspect that has been little discussed in existing meta‐analyses is the possible role of environmental strategies. Here, we re‐introduce the previously defined strategies for mite allergen control and discuss their importance to the debate on clinical effectiveness. The strategy of concurrent bedroom interventions is related to the combined use of a priori defined interventions, while the strategy of exposure‐based control relates to the treatment of relevant textiles after assessing exposure. The air purification strategy aims to purify the human breathing zone of airborne allergens. In Western European patient practice, the use of these strategies differs. A post hoc study of the dominant Cochrane review by Gøtzsche and Johansen (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2008, Art. No: CD001187) appears to indicate that a majority of the underlying trials reported on the strategy of concurrent bedroom interventions, which were mainly executed in a minimal manner. Some trials have reported on the air purification strategy and may potentially alter the debate on effectiveness. No trial has reported on the strategy of exposure‐based control. We therefore hypothesize that the absence of evidence for the effectiveness of mite allergen control for asthma treatment applies to the strategy of concurrent bedroom interventions. The evidence‐based effectiveness of the exposure‐based control strategy appears to be undetermined. The results of our post hoc re‐analysis urge that future meta‐analyses of mite allergen control should a priori define the environmental strategy under study. Future trials of mite allergen control are warranted to test the exposure‐based strategy as well as the sparsely tested strategy of air purification

A Sensitive Assay for Virus Discovery in Respiratory Clinical Samples

In 5–40% of respiratory infections in children, the diagnostics remain negative, suggesting that the patients might be infected with a yet unknown pathogen. Virus discovery cDNA-AFLP (VIDISCA) is a virus discovery method based on recognition of restriction enzyme cleavage sites, ligation of adaptors and subsequent amplification by PCR. However, direct discovery of unknown pathogens in nasopharyngeal swabs is difficult due to the high concentration of ribosomal RNA (rRNA) that acts as competitor. In the current study we optimized VIDISCA by adjusting the reverse transcription enzymes and decreasing rRNA amplification in the reverse transcription, using hexamer oligonucleotides that do not anneal to rRNA. Residual cDNA synthesis on rRNA templates was further reduced with oligonucleotides that anneal to rRNA but can not be extended due to 3′-dideoxy-C6-modification. With these modifications >90% reduction of rRNA amplification was established. Further improvement of the VIDISCA sensitivity was obtained by high throughput sequencing (VIDISCA-454). Eighteen nasopharyngeal swabs were analysed, all containing known respiratory viruses. We could identify the proper virus in the majority of samples tested (11/18). The median load in the VIDISCA-454 positive samples was 7.2 E5 viral genome copies/ml (ranging from 1.4 E3–7.7 E6). Our results show that optimization of VIDISCA and subsequent high-throughput-sequencing enhances sensitivity drastically and provides the opportunity to perform virus discovery directly in patient material

Use of stochastic simulation to evaluate the reduction in methane emissions and improvement in reproductive efficiency from routine hormonal interventions in dairy herds

This study predicts the magnitude and between herd variation in changes of methane emissions and production efficiency associated with interventions to improve reproductive efficiency in dairy cows. Data for 10,000 herds of 200 cows were simulated. Probability of conception was predicted daily from the start of the study (parturition) for each cow up to day 300 of lactation. Four scenarios of differing first insemination management were simulated for each herd using the same theoretical cows: A baseline scenario based on breeding from observed oestrus only, synchronisation of oestrus for pre-set first insemination using 2 methods, and a regime using prostaglandin treatments followed by first insemination to observed oestrus. Cows that did not conceive to first insemination were re-inseminated following detection of oestrus. For cows that conceived, gestation length was 280 days with cessation of milking 60 days before calving. Those cows not pregnant after 300 days of lactation were culled and replaced by a heifer. Daily milk yield was calculated for 730 days from the start of the study for each cow. Change in mean reproductive and economic outputs were summarised for each herd following the 3 interventions. For each scenario, methane emissions were determined by daily forage dry matter intake, forage quality, and cow replacement risk. Linear regression was used to summarise relationships. In some circumstances improvement in reproductive efficiency using the programmes investigated was associated with reduced cost and methane emissions compared to reliance on detection of oestrus. Efficiency of oestrus detection and the time to commencement of breeding after calving influenced variability in changes in cost and methane emissions. For an average UK herd this was a saving of at least £50 per cow and a 3.6% reduction in methane emissions per L of milk when timing of first insemination was pre-set