Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework

A new automatic forecasting procedure is proposed based on a recent exponential smoothing framework which incorporates a Box-Cox transformation and ARMA residual corrections. The procedure is complete with well-defined methods for initialization, estimation, likelihood evaluation, and analytical derivation of point and interval predictions under a Gaussian error assumption. The algorithm is examined extensively by applying it to single seasonal and non-seasonal time series from the M and the M3 competitions, and is shown to provide competitive out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared to the best methods in these competitions and to the traditional exponential smoothing framework. The proposed algorithm can be used as an alternative to existing automatic forecasting procedures in modeling single seasonal and non-seasonal time series. In addition, it provides the new option of automatic modeling of multiple seasonal time series which cannot be handled using any of the existing automatic forecasting procedures. The proposed automatic procedure is further illustrated by applying it to two multiple seasonal time series involving call center data and electricity demand data.Exponential smoothing, state space models, automatic forecasting, Box-Cox transformation, residual adjustment, multiple seasonality, time series

Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing

A new innovations state space modeling framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformations, Fourier series with time varying coefficients and ARMA error correction, is introduced for forecasting complex seasonal time series that cannot be handled using existing forecasting models. Such complex time series include time series with multiple seasonal periods, high frequency seasonality, non-integer seasonality and dual-calendar effects. Our new modelling framework provides an alternative to existing exponential smoothing models, and is shown to have many advantages. The methods for initialization and estimation, including likelihood evaluation, are presented, and analytical expressions for point forecasts and interval predictions under the assumption of Gaussian errors are derived, leading to a simple, comprehensible approach to forecasting complex seasonal time series. Our trigonometric formulation is also presented as a means of decomposing complex seasonal time series, which cannot be decomposed using any of the existing decomposition methods. The approach is useful in a broad range of applications, and we illustrate its versatility in three empirical studies where it demonstrates excellent forecasting performance over a range of prediction horizons. In addition, we show that our trigonometric decomposition leads to the identification and extraction of seasonal components, which are otherwise not apparent in the time series plot itself.Exponential smoothing, Fourier series, prediction intervals, seasonality, state space models, time series decomposition

Religion, State, and a Conflict of Duties:A Constitutional Problem in Sri Lanka

Both of Sri Lanka’s post-independence, autochthonous, republican constitutions have contained within their pages a directive which declares that “Buddhism shall have foremost place”. The framers of Sri Lanka’s constitution insisted that this was simply an acknowledgement of the “special” place of Buddhism in the fabric of Sri Lanka’s history. However, recent history has shown this provision being used directly and indirectly to deny portions of Sri Lankans their fundamental rights. The victims of this provision belong both to the majority and minority religions. The question this thesis attempted to answer was: does Sri Lanka’s duty to Buddhism under Article 9 of the Constitution conflict with its duties to its citizens under fundamental rights provisions? This thesis argues that (i) such a conflict does exist and (ii) where it arises the state has time after time prioritized the promotion and protection of Buddhism over protecting its citizens’ fundamental rights, and that this has in turn affected the state’s ability to deal neutrally with its citizens. Four instances of this conflict are examined in detail: the restrictions placed on proselytization, the Deeghavapi case, the child monk and the re-imposition of a ban on women’s ability to purchase alcohol. This thesis further argues that legal and political protections afforded to religious minorities, such as personal laws and special laws are insufficient to protect the rights of vulnerable groups within those minorities and instead serve to promote communalism

Impact of Corporate Incentives of Finance Managers on Financial Performance of Public Listed Companies in Sri Lanka

In the context of improving financial performance of companies throughout the world, corporate incentives provided to finance managers with respect to enhanced employee performance is of paramount importance. However, this paper is based on the findings of public listed companies in Sri Lanka. Even though theories to satisfy and motivate employees through corporate incentives have been extensively studied, most researchers do have different views on major predictions on financial performance of listed companies. This paper aims to ascertain the adequacy and the level of corporate incentives of finance managers required to enhance financial performance of public listed companies in Sri Lanka. For the purpose of investigation, a quantitative study with the use of deductive method, using stratified random sampling technique consisting a sample of 200 Public Listed Companies out of a population of 306 was used. Both primary data sourced through questionnaires from the representative sample of the population and secondary data available in the annual reports of listed firms within last 5 years were used to conduct multiple correlation and regression analysis. The obtained results were relatively according to the literature developed in the study as expounded by Fredrick Herzberg under Two Factor Theory and also by Alderfer under ERG theory. The results indicated corporate incentives have a strong effect on financial performance and a strong relationship between corporate incentives with financial performance of listed firms. Corporate incentives in the context of factors of motivation were more effective than hygiene factors as explained by Herzberg and also by Alderfer which the theoretical framework was based upon in this study. This study recommended that public listed companies in the Colombo Stock Exchange should focus on intrinsic corporate incentives (factors of motivation) as emphasized by Herzberg than extrinsic corporate incentives (hygiene factors). This study implied that Human Resource practitioners, theorists, researchers and remuneration policy makers to consider requisite level of corporate incentives to formulate remuneration policies and procedures to mitigate, avoid and prevent discrepancies in incentive anomalies to motivate finance managers to gain successful financial growth. Keywords: Anomalies, Deductive Method, Financial Performance, Hygiene Factors, Sample Siz

Application of Discrete-Interval Moving Seasonalities to Spanish Electricity Demand Forecasting during Easter

[EN] Forecasting electricity demand through time series is a tool used by transmission system operators to establish future operating conditions. The accuracy of these forecasts is essential for the precise development of activity. However, the accuracy of the forecasts is enormously subject to the calendar effect. The multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models are widely used due to the great precision and simplicity that they offer. Usually, these models relate this calendar effect to external variables that contribute to modification of their forecasts a posteriori. In this work, a new point of view is presented, where the calendar effect constitutes a built-in part of the Holt-Winters model. In particular, the proposed model incorporates discrete-interval moving seasonalities. Moreover, a clear example of the application of this methodology to situations that are difficult to treat, such as the days of Easter, is presented. The results show that the proposed model performs well, outperforming the regular Holt-Winters model and other methods such as artificial neural networks and Exponential Smoothing State Space Model with Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA Errors, Trend and Seasonal Components (TBATS) methods.The authors would like to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for the support under project TIN2017-8888209C2-1-R.Trull, Ó.; García-Díaz, JC.; Troncoso, A. (2019). Application of Discrete-Interval Moving Seasonalities to Spanish Electricity Demand Forecasting during Easter. Energies. 12(6):1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12061083S116126Garrués-Irurzun, J., & López-García, S. (2009). Red Eléctrica de España S.A.: Instrument of regulation and liberalization of the Spanish electricity market (1944–2004). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(8), 2061-2069. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2009.01.028Roldan-Fernandez, J., Gómez-Quiles, C., Merre, A., Burgos-Payán, M., & Riquelme-Santos, J. (2018). Cross-Border Energy Exchange and Renewable Premiums: The Case of the Iberian System. Energies, 11(12), 3277. doi:10.3390/en11123277Contreras, J., Espinola, R., Nogales, F. J., & Conejo, A. J. (2003). ARIMA models to predict next-day electricity prices. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 18(3), 1014-1020. doi:10.1109/tpwrs.2002.804943Juberias, G., Yunta, R., Garcia Moreno, J., & Mendivil, C. (1999). A new ARIMA model for hourly load forecasting. 1999 IEEE Transmission and Distribution Conference (Cat. No. 99CH36333). doi:10.1109/tdc.1999.755371Bianco, V., Manca, O., & Nardini, S. (2009). Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models. Energy, 34(9), 1413-1421. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2009.06.034Taylor, J. W. (2003). Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 54(8), 799-805. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601589Taylor, J. W. (2010). Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting. European Journal of Operational Research, 204(1), 139-152. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2009.10.003Ko, C.-N., & Lee, C.-M. (2013). Short-term load forecasting using SVR (support vector regression)-based radial basis function neural network with dual extended Kalman filter. Energy, 49, 413-422. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2012.11.015Rana, M., & Koprinska, I. (2016). Forecasting electricity load with advanced wavelet neural networks. Neurocomputing, 182, 118-132. doi:10.1016/j.neucom.2015.12.004Baliyan, A., Gaurav, K., & Mishra, S. K. (2015). A Review of Short Term Load Forecasting using Artificial Neural Network Models. Procedia Computer Science, 48, 121-125. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2015.04.160Yang, Z., Ce, L., & Lian, L. (2017). Electricity price forecasting by a hybrid model, combining wavelet transform, ARMA and kernel-based extreme learning machine methods. Applied Energy, 190, 291-305. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.130Ghadimi, N., Akbarimajd, A., Shayeghi, H., & Abedinia, O. (2018). Two stage forecast engine with feature selection technique and improved meta-heuristic algorithm for electricity load forecasting. Energy, 161, 130-142. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.07.088Troncoso Lora, A., Riquelme Santos, J. M., Riquelme, J. C., Gómez Expósito, A., & Martínez Ramos, J. L. (2004). Time-Series Prediction: Application to the Short-Term Electric Energy Demand. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 577-586. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-25945-9_57Martinez Alvarez, F., Troncoso, A., Riquelme, J. C., & Aguilar Ruiz, J. S. (2011). Energy Time Series Forecasting Based on Pattern Sequence Similarity. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 23(8), 1230-1243. doi:10.1109/tkde.2010.227Cancelo, J. R., Espasa, A., & Grafe, R. (2008). Forecasting the electricity load from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(4), 588-602. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.07.005TORRÓ, H., MENEU, V., & VALOR, E. (2003). Single Factor Stochastic Models with Seasonality Applied to Underlying Weather Derivatives Variables. The Journal of Risk Finance, 4(4), 6-17. doi:10.1108/eb022969Darbellay, G. A., & Slama, M. (2000). Forecasting the short-term demand for electricity. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(1), 71-83. doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00045-xMoral-Carcedo, J., & Vicéns-Otero, J. (2005). Modelling the non-linear response of Spanish electricity demand to temperature variations. Energy Economics, 27(3), 477-494. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2005.01.003Erişen, E., Iyigun, C., & Tanrısever, F. (2017). Short-term electricity load forecasting with special days: an analysis on parametric and non-parametric methods. Annals of Operations Research. doi:10.1007/s10479-017-2726-6Arora, S., & Taylor, J. W. (2013). Short-Term Forecasting of Anomalous Load Using Rule-Based Triple Seasonal Methods. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 28(3), 3235-3242. doi:10.1109/tpwrs.2013.2252929Arora, S., & Taylor, J. W. (2018). Rule-based autoregressive moving average models for forecasting load on special days: A case study for France. European Journal of Operational Research, 266(1), 259-268. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2017.08.056Bermúdez, J. D. (2013). Exponential smoothing with covariates applied to electricity demand forecast. European J. of Industrial Engineering, 7(3), 333. doi:10.1504/ejie.2013.054134Göb, R., Lurz, K., & Pievatolo, A. (2013). Electrical load forecasting by exponential smoothing with covariates. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 29(6), 629-645. doi:10.1002/asmb.2008Chatfield, C. (1978). The Holt-Winters Forecasting Procedure. Applied Statistics, 27(3), 264. doi:10.2307/234716

MICROBIOLOGICAL AND PHYSICOCHEMICAL QUALITY OF CURD CHESSE SOLD IN THE STATE OF ALAGOAS (BRAZIL)

The present study aimed to evaluate the microbiological and physicochemical quality of curd cheese commercialized in Alagoas (BRAZIL). Thirty samples were collect during a five months period in six points of sale. It was estimated the number of coagulase-positive Staphylococcus and coliforms, as well as the presence of Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes. Regarding physicochemical characteristics, pH, fat content and humidity were evaluated. Among the thirty analyzed samples, 20 (66.6%) were in accordance with Brazilian legislation parameters for coliforms, while 10 (33.3%) surpassed those limits. For coagulase-positive Staphylococcus 15 samples (50%) showed values above the allowed by legislation. None of the samples analyzed harbored Salmonella spp. or Listeria monocytogenes. Regarding physicochemical parameters, the average values observed were of 5.89 for pH, 23.6% for fat content and 46.96 g/100 g for humidity. Overall, the results obtained reflect the poor hygienic conditions observed from manufacture to commercialization, pointing towards a potential health risk for curd cheese consumers. Furthermore is necessary to regulate physicochemical standards for curd cheese fabication.

ASPECTOS FÍSICO-QUÍMICOS E FISIOLÓGICOS DO AMIDO RESISTENTE

A presente revisão teve por objetivo estudar os fatores que influem na formação do amido resistente (AR) e sua proporção nos alimentos, visando auxiliar os profissionais da área de saúde no estabelecimento de recomendações dietéticas. O termo amido resistente é definido como a soma do amido e produtos da sua degradação que não são digeridos pelas enzimas humanas de indivíduos saudáveis. O amido resistente foi abordado quanto a sua classificação e formação, bem como seus efeitos fisiológicos sobre o metabolismo intestinal, glicídico e lipídico. Verificou-se que não obstante comprovação das propriedades prebióticas do AR, os mecanismos sistêmicos dos ácidos graxos de cadeia curtos produzidos durante a fermentação e os efeitos sobre as respostas glicêmicas e lipídicas ainda são conflitantes. PHYSICAL-CHEMICAL AND PHYSIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF RESISTANT STARCH Abstract The present revision had as objective: to study the factors, which have influence on resistant starch (RS) formation, and their content on foodstuffs, aiming to subsidies health professionals on dietary recommendations. The expression resistant starch refers to the sum of starch and its degradation products not digested by gastrointestinal tract enzymes from healthy human beings. Resistant Starch was approached according to its classification and formation and also according to its physiological effects on intestinal sugar and lipids metabolisms. It was observed RS prebiotics properties confirmation, although the systemic mechanisms of low chain fatty acids produced during fermentation and the effects on glycemic and lipidic responses are still conflicting

Therapeutic utilization of meditation resources by people with multiple sclerosis : Insights from an online patient discussion forum

We aimed to describe website traffic and qualitatively analyze an e-health community discussion forum. Participants in this study were people affected by multiple sclerosis visiting the Overcoming Multiple Sclerosis (OMS) website. This mixed methods study combined descriptive analysis of website traffic over 7 years and 1 month, and qualitative analysis of 1 week of posts in the meditation topic, coded into theme groups using qualitative thematic analysis. There were 166 meditation topics posted with 21,530 initial views of primary post and 785 sub-post responses. Meditation posts and sub-posts received 368,713 replies. Number of views increased from 4,684 in 2011 to over 80,000 in 2017, a considerably greater rate of increase than overall traffic. Qualitative analysis of posts on the meditation forum identified themes of barriers and enablers to utilization of meditation resources. Enablement themes dominated, observed across six of the seven theme groups with various forms of positive social and emotional support to learn and practice meditation. One theme, negative emotion, was identified as a barrier. The OMS peer-to-peer patient online discussion forum serves important functions in encouraging, educating and enabling its growing online community. Our analysis may help improve and innovate online support for lifestyle management in many chronic diseases

Policy-relevant spatial indicators of urban liveability and sustainability : Scaling from local to global

[English] Urban liveability is a global priority for creating healthy, sustainable cities. Measurement of policy-relevant spatial indicators of the built and natural environment supports city planning at all levels of government. Analysis of their spatial distribution within cities, and impacts on individuals and communities, is crucial to ensure planning decisions are effective and equitable. This paper outlines challenges and lessons from a 5-year collaborative research program, scaling up a software workflow for calculating a composite indicator of urban liveability for residential address points across Melbourne, to Australia’s 21 largest cities, and further extension to 25 global cities in diverse contexts. [Chinese] 城市宜居性是创建健康、可持续城市的全球优先事项。对建筑和自然环境的政策相关空间指标的测量支持各级政府的城市规划。分析它们在城市中的空间分布，以及对个人和社区的影响，对于确保规划决策的有效性和公平性至关重要。本文概述了一个为期5年的合作研究项目所面临的挑战和经验教训，该项目将计算墨尔本住宅地址点的城市宜居性综合指标的软件工作流程扩大到澳大利亚21个最大的城市，并进一步扩展到25个不同背景的全球城市