Detecting a conditional extrme value model

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value model assumes a domain of attraction condition on a sub-collection of the components of a multivariate random vector. This model has been studied in \cite{heffernan:tawn:2004,heffernan:resnick:2007,das:resnick:2008a}. In this paper we propose three statistics which act as tools to detect this model in a bivariate set-up. In addition, the proposed statistics also help to distinguish between two forms of the limit measure that is obtained in the model.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figure

Modeling Neisseria meningitidis metabolism: from genome to metabolic fluxes

A genome-scale flux model for primary metabolism of Neisseria meningitidis was constructed; a minimal medium for growth of N. meningitidis was designed using the model and tested successfully in batch and chemostat cultures

Estimation of conditional laws given an extreme component

Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t)$ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional distribution of the random vector $(X,Y)$, suitably normalized, given that $X$ is large. There already exists a wide literature on bivariate models for which this limiting distribution exists. In this paper, a statistical analysis of this problem is done. Estimators of the limiting distribution (which is assumed to exist) and the normalizing functions are provided, as well as an estimator of the conditional quantile function when the conditioning event is extreme. Consistency of the estimators is proved and a functional central limit theorem for the estimator of the limiting distribution is obtained. The small sample behavior of the estimator of the conditional quantile function is illustrated through simulations.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figur

Neonatal Gram Negative and Candida Sepsis Survival and Neurodevelopmental Outcome at the Corrected Age of 24 Months

Objectives: To evaluate the long term neurodevelopmental outcome of premature infants exposed to either gram- negative sepsis (GNS) or neonatal Candida sepsis (NCS), and to compare their outcome with premature infants without sepsis. Methods: Historical cohort study in a population of infants born at <30 weeks gestation and admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) of the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam during the period 1997-2007. Outcome of infants exposed to GNS or NCS and 120 randomly chosen uncomplicated controls (UC) from the same NICU were compared. Clinical data during hospitalization and neurodevelopmental outcome data (clinical neurological status; Bayley -test results and vision/hearing test results) at the corrected age of 24 months were collected. An association model with sepsis as the central determinant of either good or adverse outcome (death or severe developmental delay) was made, corrected for confounders using multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: Of 1362 patients, 55 suffered from GNS and 29 suffered from NCS; cumulative incidence 4.2% and 2.2%, respectively. During the follow-up period the mortality rate was 34% for both GNS and NCS and 5% for UC. The adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) [95% CI] for adverse outcome in the GNS group compared to the NCS group was 1.4 [0.4-4.9]. The adjusted ORs [95% CI] for adverse outcome in the GNS and NCS groups compared to the UC group were 4.8 [1.5-15.9] and 3.2 [0.7-14.7], respectively. Conclusions: We found no statistically significant difference in outcome at the corrected age of 24 months between neonatal GNS and NCS cases. Suffering from either gram -negative or Candida sepsis increased the odds for adverse outcome compared with an uncomplicated neonatal period

A hinged external fixator for complex elbow dislocations: A multicenter prospective cohort study

Background: Elbow dislocations can be classified as simple or complex. Simple dislocations are characterized by the absence of fractures, while complex dislocations are associated with fractures of the radial head, olecranon, or coronoid process. The majority of patients with these complex dislocations are treated with open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF), or arthroplasty in case of a non-reconstructable radial head fracture. If the elbow joint remains unstable after fracture fixation, a hinged elbow fixator can be applied. The fixator provides stability to the elbow joint, and allows for early mobilization. The latter may be important for preventing stiffness of the joint. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of early mobilization with a hinged external elbow fixator on clinical outcome in patients with complex elbow dislocations with residual instability following fracture fixation. Methods/Design. The design of the study will be a multicenter prospective cohort study of 30 patients who have sustained a complex elbow dislocation and are treated with a hinged elbow fixator following fracture fixation because of residual instability. Early active motion exercises within the limits of pain will be started immediately after surgery under supervision of a physical therapist. Outcome will be evaluated at regular intervals over the subsequent 12 months. The primary outcome is the Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand score. The secondary outcome measures are the Mayo Elbow Performance Index, Oxford Elbow Score, pain level at both sides, range of motion of the elbow joint at both sides, radiographic healing of the fractures and formation of periarticular ossifications, rate of secondary interventions and complications, and health-related quality of life (Short-Form 36). Discussion. The outcome of this study will yield quantitative data on the functional outcome in patients with a complex elbow dislocation and who are treated with ORIF and additional stabilization with a hinged elbow fixator. Trial Registration. The trial is registered at the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR1996)

Entrepreneurs’ age, institutions, and social value creation goals: a multi-country study

This study explores the relationship between an entrepreneur's age and his/her social value creation goals. Building on the lifespan developmental psychology literature and institutional theory, we hypothesize a U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurs’ age and their choice to create social value through their ventures, such that younger and older entrepreneurs create more social value with their businesses while middle age entrepreneurs are relatively more economically and less socially oriented with their ventures. We further hypothesize that the quality of a country’s formal institutions in terms of economic, social, and political freedom steepen the U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurs’ age and their choice to pursue social value creation as supportive institutional environments allow entrepreneurs to follow their age-based preferences. We confirm our predictions using multilevel mixed-effects linear regressions on a sample of over 15,000 entrepreneurs (aged between 18 and 64 years) in 45 countries from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data. The findings are robust to several alternative specifications. Based on our findings, we discuss implications for theory and practice, and we propose future research directions

The Predictive Nature of Individual Differences in Early Associative Learning and Emerging Social Behavior

Across the first year of life, infants achieve remarkable success in their ability to interact in the social world. The hierarchical nature of circuit and skill development predicts that the emergence of social behaviors may depend upon an infant's early abilities to detect contingencies, particularly socially-relevant associations. Here, we examined whether individual differences in the rate of associative learning at one month of age is an enduring predictor of social, imitative, and discriminative behaviors measured across the human infant's first year. One-month learning rate was predictive of social behaviors at 5, 9, and 12 months of age as well as face-evoked discriminative neural activity at 9 months of age. Learning was not related to general cognitive abilities. These results underscore the importance of early contingency learning and suggest the presence of a basic mechanism underlying the ontogeny of social behaviors

Reduced engagement with social stimuli in 6-month-old infants with later Autism Spectrum Disorder: a longitudinal prospective study of infants at high familial risk

Background: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder that affects more than 1% of the population, and close to 20% of prospectively studied infants with an older sibling with ASD. Although significant progress has been made in characterizing the emergence of behavioral symptoms of ASD, far less is known about the underlying disruptions to early learning. Recent models suggest that core aspects of the causal path to ASD may only be apparent in early infancy. Here, we investigated social attention in 6- and 12-month-old infants who did and did not meet criteria for ASD at 24 months using both cognitive and electrophysiological methods. We hypothesized that a reduction in attention engagement to faces would be associated with later ASD. Methods: In a prospective longitudinal design, we used measures of both visual attention (habituation) and brain function (event-related potentials to faces and objects) at 6 and 12 months, and investigated the relationship to ASD outcome at 24 months. Results: High-risk infants who met criteria for ASD at 24 months showed shorter epochs of visual attention, faster but less prolonged neural activation to faces, and delayed sensitization responses (increases in looking) to faces at 6 months; these differences were less apparent at 12 months. These findings are consistent with disrupted engagement of sustained attention to social stimuli. Conclusions: These findings suggest that there may be fundamental early disruptions to attention engagement that may have cascading consequences for later social functioning

Clinical effectiveness of usual care with or without antidepressant medication for primary care patients with minor or mild-major depression: a randomized equivalence trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Minor and mild-major depression are highly prevalent in primary care. There is insufficient evidence for the effectiveness of antidepressants in the treatment of minor and mild-major depression. We compared the effectiveness of usual primary care treatment, with or without antidepressants, in minor and mild-major depression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A pragmatic patient-randomized equivalence trial with 52 weeks follow-up was conducted in The Netherlands. In total, 59 primary care physicians (PCPs) recruited and treated 181 adult patients with minor or mild-major depression. Patients were randomized to four consultations within 3 months of usual care plus antidepressants (UCandAD) or usual care alone (UCnoAD). The Montgomery Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) was used to assess changes in severity of depressive symptoms. The predefined equivalence margin was set at five points. Multilevel analysis was used to analyze the data. Secondary outcome measures were the Short-Form 36 (SF-36), and the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ-8).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patients received on average 3.0 (SD 1.4) 15-min consultations within 3 months with (n = 85) or without paroxetine (n = 96). Equivalence of UCandAD and UCnoAD was demonstrated in the intention-to-treat analyses as well as the per-protocol analysis after 6 weeks, but not at 13, 26 and 52 weeks follow-up. No statistical differences in effectiveness between treatment groups were found in the intention-to-treat analysis. No differences in the physical and mental functioning (SF-36) were found between the treatment groups. Patients allocated to UCandAD were slightly more satisfied with their treatment at 13 weeks follow-up (but not at 52 weeks follow-up) than patients allocated to UCnoAD. Preliminary analyses suggested that subgroups such as patients with mild-major (instead of a minor) depression might benefit from antidepressant treatment. Patients who were assigned to their preferred treatment (in particular to UCnoAD) were more often compliant and had better clinical outcomes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>UCandAD was as effective as UCnoAD over the first 6 weeks, but not at 13, 26, and 52 weeks. However, superiority of either treatment could not be demonstrated either. The question whether antidepressants add any clinical effect to usual care remains unresolved. We recommend future studies to look for subgroups of patients who may benefit from antidepressants.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Dutch Trial Registry ISRCN03007807.</p