Energy and emissions modelling in ethiopia’s transport sector

Papers presented virtually at the 41st International Southern African Transport Conference on 10-13 July 2062This paper discusses emissions and energy modelling in Ethiopia’s transport sector as a component of the development of a wider cross-sectoral Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) for the country. The LT-LEDS is a key requirement of the Paris Agreement 2015 to which Ethiopia is a signatory. It aims to support growth of key economic sectors while ensuring the alignment of developmental goals with climate commitments and environmental sustainability. The transport sector is identified as a key part of this effort given its significant contribution to GHG emissions and climate change globally. The main activities involved in developing the low emissions pathways are the modelling of baseline and mitigation scenarios which capture historic emission and energy trends in the transport sector and estimates future emissions linked with the growth of the sector respectively. A bottom-up modelling technique is employed for the study. This involves collecting and analysing disaggregate transport activity data to provide a fundamental understanding of transport sector energy consumption and how it affects the long-term transitions. The results of the scenario building highlight the road sector as the main contributor to transport sector emissions in the country. This calls for the implementation of strategies and interventions to reduce emissions and guarantee a climate friendly and environmentally sustainable growth

Patients' experiences of the quality of long-term care among the elderly: comparing scores over time

Contains fulltext : 108999.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Every two years, long-term care organizations for the elderly are obliged to evaluate and publish the experiences of residents, representatives of psychogeriatric patients, and/or assisted-living clients with regard to quality of care. Our hypotheses are that publication of this quality information leads to improved performance, and that organizations with substandard performance will improve more than those whose performance is relatively good. METHODS: The analyses included organizational units that measured experiences twice between 2007 (t(0)) and 2009 (t(1)). Experiences with quality of care were measured with Consumer Quality Index (CQI) questionnaires. Besides descriptive analyses (i.e. mean, 5(th) and 95(th) percentile, and 90% central range) of the 19 CQI indicators and change scores of these indicators were calculated. Differences across five performance groups (ranging from 'worst' to 'best') were tested using an ANOVA test and effect sizes were measured with omega squared (omega(2)). RESULTS: At t0 experiences of residents, representatives, and assisted-living clients were positive on all indicators. Nevertheless, most CQI indicators had improved scores (up to 0.37 change score) at t(1). Only three indicators showed a minor decline (up to -0.08 change score). Change scores varied between indicators and questionnaires, e.g. they were more profound for the face-to-face interview questionnaire for residents in nursing homes than for the other two mail questionnaires (0.15 vs. 0.05 and 0.04, respectively), possibly due to more variation between nursing homes on the first measurement, perhaps indicating more potential for improvement. A negative relationship was found between prior performance and change, particularly with respect to the experiences of residents (omega(2) = 0.16) and assisted-living clients (omega(2) = 0.15). However, the relation between prior performance and improvement could also be demonstrated with respect to the experiences reported by representatives of psychogeriatric patients and by assisted-living clients. For representatives of psychogeriatric patients, the performance groups 1 and 2 ([much] below average) improved significantly more than the other three groups (omega(2) = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Both hypotheses were confirmed: almost all indicator scores improved over time and long-term care organizations for the elderly with substandard performance improved more than those with a performance which was already relatively good

How can the stigma of public transport as the ‘poor man’s vehicle’ be overcome to enhance sustainability and climate change mitigation?

Natural Resources Forum, a United Nations Sustainable Development Journal is running a special series over the 2009-2011 period on themes to be considered by the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development in its 18th and 19th sessions: chemicals, mining, sustainable consumption and production, transport and waste management. In this issue, experts address the question: “How can the stigma of public transport as the ‘poor man’s vehicle’ be overcome to enhance sustainability and climate change mitigation?

Early detection and counselling intervention of asthma symptoms in preschool children: study design of a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background. Prevention of childhood asthma is an important public health objective. This study evaluates the effectiveness of early detection of preschool children with asthma symptoms, followed by a counselling intervention at preventive child health centres. Early detection and counselling is expected to reduce the prevalence of asthma symptoms and improve health-related quality of life at age 6 years. Methods/design. This cluster randomised controlled trial was embedded within the Rotterdam population-based prospective cohort study Generation R in which 7893 children (born between April 2002 and January 2006) participated in the postnatal phase. Sixteen child health centres are involved, randomised into 8 intervention and 8 control centres. Since June 2005, an early detection tool has been applied at age 14, 24, 36 and 45 months at the intervention centres. Children who met the intervention criteria received counselling intervention (personal advice to parents to prevent smoke exposure of the child, and/or referral to the general practitioner or asthma nurse). The primary outcome was asthma diagnosis at age 6 years. Secondary outcomes included frequency and severity of asthma symptoms, health-related quality of life, fractional exhaled nitric oxide and airway resistance at age 6 years. Analysis was according to the intention-to-treat principle. Data collection will be completed end 2011. Discussion. This study among preschool children provides insight into the effectiveness of early detection of asthma symptoms followed by a counselling intervention at preventive child health centres. Trial registration. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15790308

Routinely collected data for randomized trials: promises, barriers, and implications

This work was supported by Stiftung Institut für klinische Epidemiologie. The Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford University is funded by a grant from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The funders had no role in design and conduct of the study; the collection, management, analysis, or interpretation of the data; or the preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript or its submission for publication.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Respiratory and mental health effects of wildfires: an ecological study in Galician municipalities (north-west Spain)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the summer of 2006, a wave of wildfires struck Galicia (north-west Spain), giving rise to a disaster situation in which a great deal of the territory was destroyed. Unlike other occasions, the wildfires in this case also threatened farms, houses and even human lives, with the result that the perception of disaster and helplessness was the most acute experienced in recent years. This study sought to analyse the respiratory and mental health effects of the August-2006 fires, using consumption of anxiolytics-hypnotics and drugs for obstructive airway diseases as indicators.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted an analytical, ecological geographical- and temporal-cluster study, using municipality-month as the study unit. The independent variable was exposure to wildfires in August 2006, with municipalities thus being classified into the following three categories: no exposure; medium exposure; and high exposure. Dependent variables were: (1) anxiolytics-hypnotics; and (2) drugs for obstructive airway diseases consumption. These variables were calculated for the two 12-month periods before and after August 2006. Additive models for time series were used for statistical analysis purposes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results revealed a higher consumption of drugs for obstructive airway diseases among pensioners during the months following the wildfires, in municipalities affected versus those unaffected by fire. In terms of consumption of anxiolytics-hypnotics, the results showed a significant increase among men among men overall -pensioners and non-pensioners- in fire-affected municipalities.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study indicates that wildfires have a significant effect on population health. The coherence of these results suggests that drug utilisation research is a useful tool for studying morbidity associated with environmental incidents.</p

Using Real-World Data in Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Practice:A Comparative Study of Five HTA Agencies

BACKGROUND: Reimbursement decisions are conventionally based on evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCTs), which often have high internal validity but low external validity. Real-world data (RWD) may provide complimentary evidence for relative effectiveness assessments (REAs) and cost-effectiveness assessments (CEAs). This study examines whether RWD is incorporated in health technology assessment (HTA) of melanoma drugs by European HTA agencies, as well as differences in RWD use between agencies and across time. METHODS: HTA reports published between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2016 were retrieved from websites of agencies representing five jurisdictions: England [National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE)], Scotland [Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC)], France [Haute Autorité de santé (HAS)], Germany [Institute for Quality and Efficacy in Healthcare (IQWiG)] and The Netherlands [Zorginstituut Nederland (ZIN)]. A standardized data extraction form was used to extract information on RWD inclusion for both REAs and CEAs. RESULTS: Overall, 52 reports were retrieved, all of which contained REAs; CEAs were present in 25 of the reports. RWD was included in 28 of the 52 REAs (54%), mainly to estimate melanoma prevalence, and in 22 of the 25 (88%) CEAs, mainly to extrapolate long-term effectiveness and/or identify drug-related costs. Differences emerged between agencies regarding RWD use in REAs; the ZIN and IQWiG cited RWD for evidence on prevalence, whereas the NICE, SMC and HAS additionally cited RWD use for drug effectiveness. No visible trend for RWD use in REAs and CEAs over time was observed. CONCLUSION: In general, RWD inclusion was higher in CEAs than REAs, and was mostly used to estimate melanoma prevalence in REAs or to predict long-term effectiveness in CEAs. Differences emerged between agencies' use of RWD; however, no visible trends for RWD use over time were observed