High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of “what-if” scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent-based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in small towns and cities, with a single-individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY—one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID-19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches—in hospitals or drive-through facilities—and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision-making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine-grain resolution, open-source nature, and wide range of features

A proposed difficulty grading system for laparoscopic bile duct exploration: benefits to clinical practice, training and research

Background: A gap remains between the mounting evidence for single session management of bile duct stones and the adoption of this approach. Laparoscopic bile duct exploration (LBDE) is limited by the scarcity of training opportunities and adequate equipment and by the perception that the technique requires a high skill-set. The aim of this study was to create a new classification of difficulty based on operative characteristics and to stratify postoperative outcomes of easy vs. difficult LBDE irrespective of the surgeon’s experience. Methods: A cohort of 1335 LBDEs was classified according to the location, number and size of ductal stones, the retrieval technique, utilisation of choledochoscopy and specific biliary pathologies encountered. A combination of features indicated easy (Grades I and II A & B) or difficult (Grades III A and B, IV and V) transcystic or transcholedochal explorations. Results: 78.3% of patients with acute cholecystitis or pancreatitis, 37% with jaundice and 46% with cholangitis had easy explorations. Difficult explorations were more likely to present as emergencies, with obstructive jaundice, previous sphincterotomy and dilated bile ducts on ultrasound scans. 77.7% of easy explorations were transcystic and 62.3% of difficult explorations transductal. Choledochoscopy was utilised in 23.4% of easy vs. 98% of difficult explorations. The use of biliary drains, open conversions, median operative time, biliary-related complications, hospital stay, readmissions, and retained stones increased with the difficulty grade. Grades I and II patients had 2 or more hospital episodes in 26.5% vs. 41.2% for grades III to V. There were 2 deaths in difficulty Grade V and one in Grade IIB. Conclusion: Difficulty grading of LBDE is useful in predicting outcomes and facilitating comparison between studies. It ensures fair structuring and assessment of training and progress of the learning curve. LBDEs were easy in 72% with 77% completed transcystically. This may encourage more units to adopt this approach

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

No effect of 14 day consumption of whole grain diet compared to refined grain diet on antioxidant measures in healthy, young subjects: a pilot study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiological evidence supports that a diet high in whole grains is associated with lowered risk of chronic diseases included coronary heart disease, obesity, type 2 diabetes, and some types of cancer. One potential mechanism for the protective properties of whole grains is their antioxidant content. The aim of this study was to compare differences in antioxidant measures when subjects consumed either refined or whole grain diets.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty healthy subjects took part in a randomized, crossover dietary intervention study. Subjects consumed either a refined grain or whole grain diet for 14 days and then the other diet for the next 14 days. Male subjects consumed 8 servings of grains per day and female subjects consumed 6 servings of grains per day. Blood and urine samples were collected at the end of each diet. Antioxidant measures included oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) in blood, and isoprostanes and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in urine.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The whole grain diet was significantly higher in dietary fiber, vitamin B6, folate, selenium, copper, zinc, iron, magnesium and cystine compared to the refined grain diet. Despite high intakes of whole grains, no significant differences were seen in any of the antioxidant measures between the refined and whole grain diets.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>No differences in antioxidant measures were found when subjects consumed whole grain diets compared to refined grain diets.</p

Altered sirtuin expression is associated with node-positive breast cancer

Sirtuins are genes implicated in cellular and organismal ageing. Consequently, they are speculated to be involved in diseases of ageing including cancer. Various cancers with widely differing prognosis have been shown to have differing and characteristic expression of these genes; however, the relationship between sirtuin expression and cancer progression is unclear. In order to correlate cancer progression and sirtuin expression, we have assessed sirtuin expression as a function of primary cell ageing and compared sirtuin expression in normal, ‘nonmalignant' breast biopsies to breast cancer biopsies using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Levels of SIRT7 expression were significantly increased in breast cancer (P<0.0001). Increased levels of SIRT3 and SIRT7 transcription were also associated with node-positive breast cancer (P<0.05 and P<0.0001, respectively). This study has demonstrated differential sirtuin expression between nonmalignant and malignant breast tissue, with consequent diagnostic and therapeutic implications

Breast cancer patients' clinical outcome measures are associated with Src kinase family member expression

&lt;p&gt;BACKGROUND: This study determined mRNA expression levels for Src kinase family (SFK) members in breast tissue specimens and assessed protein expression levels of prominent SFK members in invasive breast cancer to establish associations with clinical outcome. Ki67 was investigated to determine association between SFK members and proliferation.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;METHODS: The mRNA expression levels were assessed for eight SFK members by quantitative real-time PCR. Immunohistochemistry was performed for c-Src, Lyn, Lck and Ki67.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;RESULTS: mRNA expression was quantified in all tissue samples. SRC and LYN were the most highly expressed in malignant tissue. LCK was more highly expressed in oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative, compared with ER-positive tumours. High cytoplasmic Src kinase protein expression was significantly associated with decreased disease-specific survival. Lyn was not associated with survival at any cellular location. High membrane Lck expression was significantly associated with improved survival. Ki67 expression correlated with tumour grade and nuclear c-Src, but was not associated with survival.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;CONCLUSIONS: All eight SFK members were expressed in different breast tissues. Src kinase was highest expressed in breast cancer and had a negative impact on disease-specific survival. Membrane expression of Lck was associated with improved clinical outcome. High expression of Src kinase correlated with high proliferation.&lt;/p&gt

Phylogenetic Relationships in Pterodroma Petrels Are Obscured by Recent Secondary Contact and Hybridization

The classification of petrels (Pterodroma spp.) from Round Island, near Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, has confounded researchers since their discovery in 1948. In this study we investigate the relationships between Round Island petrels and their closest relatives using evidence from mitochondrial DNA sequence data and ectoparasites. Far from providing clear delimitation of species boundaries, our results reveal that hybridization among species on Round Island has led to genetic leakage between populations from different ocean basins. The most common species on the island, Pterodroma arminjoniana, appears to be hybridizing with two rarer species (P. heraldica and P. neglecta), subverting the reproductive isolation of all three and allowing gene flow. P. heraldica and P. neglecta breed sympatrically in the Pacific Ocean, where P. arminjoniana is absent, but no record of hybridization between these two exists and they remain phenotypically distinct. The breakdown of species boundaries in Round Island petrels followed environmental change (deforestation and changes in species composition due to hunting) within their overlapping ranges. Such multi-species interactions have implications not only for conservation, but also for our understanding of the processes of evolutionary diversification and speciation

Combining vitamin C and carotenoid biomarkers better predicts fruit and vegetable intake than individual biomarkers in dietary intervention studies.

The aim of this study was to determine whether combining potential biomarkers of fruit and vegetables is better at predicting FV intake within FV intervention studies than single biomarkers

The effects of local and global link creation mechanisms on contagion processes unfolding on time-varying networks

Social closeness and popularity are key ingredients that shape the emergence and evolution of social connections over time. Social closeness captures local reinforcement mechanisms which are behind the formation of strong ties and communities. Popularity, on the other hand, describes global link formation dynamics which drive, among other things, hubs, weak ties and bridges between groups. In this chapter, we characterize how these mechanisms affect spreading processes taking place on time-varying networks. We study contagion phenomena unfolding on a family of artificial temporal networks. In particular, we revise four different variations of activity-driven networks that capture i) heterogeneity of activation patterns ii) popularity iii) the emergence of strong and weak ties iv) community structure. By means of analytical and numerical analyses we uncover a rich and process dependent phenomenology where the interplay between spreading phenomena and link formation mechanisms might either speed up or slow down the spreadin