Anticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets.

An ability to forecast the prevalence of specific subtypes of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in live-bird markets would facilitate greatly the implementation of preventative measures designed to minimize poultry losses and human exposure. The minimum requirement for developing predictive quantitative tools is surveillance data of AIV prevalence sampled frequently over several years. Recently, a 4-year time series of monthly sampling of hemagglutinin subtypes 1–13 in ducks, chickens and quail in live-bird markets in southern China has become available. We used these data to investigate whether a simple statistical model, based solely on historical data (variables such as the number of positive samples in host X of subtype Y time t months ago), could accurately predict prevalence of H5 and H9 subtypes in chickens. We also examined the role of ducks and quail in predicting prevalence in chickens within the market setting because between-species transmission is thought to occur within markets but has not been measured. Our best statistical models performed remarkably well at predicting future prevalence (pseudo-R2 = 0.57 for H9 and 0.49 for H5), especially considering the multi-host, multi-subtype nature of AIVs. We did not find prevalence of H5/H9 in ducks or quail to be predictors of prevalence in chickens within the Chinese markets. Our results suggest surveillance protocols that could enable more accurate and timely predictive statistical models. We also discuss which data should be collected to allow the development of mechanistic models.published_or_final_versio

Quantifying within-host diversity of H5N1 influenza viruses in humans and poultry in Cambodia

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) periodically cross species barriers and infect humans. The likelihood that an AIV will evolve mammalian transmissibility depends on acquiring and selecting mutations during spillover, but data from natural infection is limited. We analyze deep sequencing data from infected humans and domestic ducks in Cambodia to examine how H5N1 viruses evolve during spillover. Overall, viral populations in both species are predominated by low-frequency (5% frequency within-host. However, short infection times, genetic drift, and purifying selection likely restrict their ability to evolve extensively during a single infection. Applying evolutionary methods to sequence data, we reveal a detailed view of H5N1 virus adaptive potential, and develop a foundation for studying host-adaptation in other zoonotic viruses

A comparison of hemagglutination inhibition and neutralization assays for characterizing immunity to seasonal influenza A

SummaryBackgroundSerum antibody to influenza can be used to identify past exposure and measure current immune status. The two most common methods for measuring this are the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HI) and the viral neutralization assay (NT), which have not been systematically compared for a large number of influenza viruses.Methods151 study participants from near Guangzhou, China were enrolled in 2009 and provided serum. HI and NT assays were performed for 12 historic and recently circulating strains of seasonal influenza A. We compared titers using Spearman correlation and fit models to predict NT using HI results.ResultsWe observed high positive mean correlation between HI and NT assays (Spearman's rank correlation, rho=0.86) across all strains. Correlation was highest within subtypes and within close proximity in time. Overall, an HI=20 corresponded to NT=10, and HI=40 corresponded to NT=20. Linear regression of log(NT) on log(HI) was statistically significant, with age modifying this relationship. Strain-specific area under a curve (AUC) indicated good accuracy (>80%) for predicting NT with HI.ConclusionsWhile we found high overall correspondence of titers between NT and HI assays for seasonal influenza A, no exact equivalence between assays could be determined. This was further complicated by correspondence between titers changing with age. These findings support generalized comparison of results between assays and give further support for use of the hemagglutination inhibition assay over the more resource intensive viral neutralization assay for seasonal influenza A, though attention should be given to the effect of age on these assays

Minimizing the threat of pandemic emergence from avian influenza in poultry systems

BACKGROUND: Live-animal markets are a culturally important feature of meat distribution chains in many populations, yet they provide an opportunity for the maintenance and transmission of potentially emergent zoonotic pathogens. The ongoing human outbreak of avian H7N9 in China highlights the need for increased surveillance and control in these live-bird markets (LBMs). DISCUSSION: Closure of retail markets in affected areas rapidly decreased human cases to rare, sporadic occurrence, but little attention has been paid thus far to the role of upstream elements of the poultry distribution chain such as wholesale markets. This could partly explain why transmission in poultry populations has not been eliminated more broadly. We present surveillance data from both wholesale live-bird markets (wLBMs) and rLBMs in Shantou, China (from 2004–2006), and call on disease-dynamic theory to illustrate why closing rLBMs has only minor effects on the overall volume of transmission. We show that the length of time birds stay in rLBMs can severely limit transmission there, but that the system-wide effect may be reduced substantially by high levels of transmission upstream of retail markets. SUMMARY: Management plans that minimize transmission throughout the entire poultry supply chain are essential for minimizing exposure to the public. These include reducing stay-time of birds in markets to 1 day, standardizing poultry supply chains to limit transmission in pre-retail settings, and monitoring strains with epidemiological traits that pose a high risk of emergence. These actions will further limit human exposure to extant viruses and reduce the likelihood of the emergence of novel strains by decreasing the overall volume of transmission

Ferrets as models for influenza virus transmission studies and pandemic risk assessments

The ferret transmission model is extensively used to assess the pandemic potential of emerging influenza viruses, yet experimental conditions and reported results vary among laboratories. Such variation can be a critical consideration when contextualizing results from independent risk-assessment studies of novel and emerging influenza viruses. To streamline interpretation of data generated in different laboratories, we provide a consensus on experimental parameters that define risk-assessment experiments of influenza virus transmissibility, including disclosure of variables known or suspected to contribute to experimental variability in this model, and advocate adoption of more standardized practices. We also discuss current limitations of the ferret transmission model and highlight continued refinements and advances to this model ongoing in laboratories. Understanding, disclosing, and standardizing the critical parameters of ferret transmission studies will improve the comparability and reproducibility of pandemic influenza risk assessment and increase the statistical power and, perhaps, accuracy of this model

Performance of a Propeller Coated with Hydrophobic Material

Computational and experimental methods were used to study a propeller coated with hydrophobic material and a propeller with a conventional surface for comparison. In CFD simulations, the blade surface mesh was arranged in a way to set non-slip or free slip wall boundary conditions with different proportions to define the level of surface slip. The conventional and the hydrophobic material propellers defined by different surface slip rates were simulated under different advance speed coefficients and different rotational speeds. Propeller performance results, blade pressure, and the Liutex vorticity distribution were studied. An experimental platform was established to study the velocity field around the propeller using a Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) device. The CFD calculation results were compared with the PIV results. It was found that the calculation results using a 75% surface slip rate were closer to the experimental results. The calculation results show that the propeller coated with hydrophobic material has improved thrust and efficiency compared with the propeller with conventional material. The hydrophobic material can significantly reduce the low-speed region downstream of the propeller hub. The hub and the tip vortices shown by the Liutex are also significantly reduced. Those changes help to improve the propulsion efficiency

Data from: ggtree: an R package for visualization and annotation of phylogenetic trees with their covariates and other associated data

We present an r package, ggtree, which provides programmable visualization and annotation of phylogenetic trees. ggtree can read more tree file formats than other softwares, including newick, nexus, NHX, phylip and jplace formats, and support visualization of phylo, multiphylo, phylo4, phylo4d, obkdata and phyloseq tree objects defined in other r packages. It can also extract the tree/branch/node-specific and other data from the analysis outputs of beast, epa, hyphy, paml, phylodog, pplacer, r8s, raxml and revbayes software, and allows using these data to annotate the tree. The package allows colouring and annotation of a tree by numerical/categorical node attributes, manipulating a tree by rotating, collapsing and zooming out clades, highlighting user selected clades or operational taxonomic units and exploration of a large tree by zooming into a selected portion. A two-dimensional tree can be drawn by scaling the tree width based on an attribute of the nodes. A tree can be annotated with an associated numerical matrix (as a heat map), multiple sequence alignment, subplots or silhouette images. The package ggtree is released under the artistic-2.0 license. The source code and documents are freely available through bioconductor (http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/ggtree)