Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system

Abatement options for the hard-to-electrify parts of the transport sector are needed to achieve ambitious emissions targets. Biofuels based on biomass, electrofuels based on renewable hydrogen and a carbon source, as well as fossil fuels compensated by carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are the main options. Currently, biofuels are the only renewable fuels available at scale and are stimulated by blending mandates. Here, we estimate the system cost of enforcing such mandates in addition to an overall emissions cap for all energy sectors. We model overnight scenarios for 2040 and 2060 with the sector-coupled European energy system model PyPSA-Eur-Sec, with a high temporal resolution. The following cost drivers are identified: (i) high biomass costs due to scarcity, (ii) opportunity costs for competing usages of biomass for industry heat and combined heat and power (CHP) with carbon capture, and (iii) lower scalability and generally higher cost for biofuels compared to electrofuels and fossil fuels combined with CDR. With a -80% emissions reduction target in 2040, variable renewables, partial electrification of heat, industry and transport, and biomass use for CHP and industrial heat are important for achieving the target at minimal cost, while an abatement of remaining liquid fossil fuel use increases system cost. In this case, a 50% biofuel mandate increases total energy system costs by 123–191 billion €, corresponding to 35%–62% of the liquid fuel cost without a mandate. With a negative -105% emissions target in 2060, fuel abatement options are necessary, and electrofuels or the use of CDR to offset fossil fuel emissions are both more competitive than biofuels. In this case, a 50% biofuel mandate increases total costs by 21–33 billion €, or 11%–15% of the liquid fuel cost without a mandate. Biomass is preferred in CHP and industry heat, combined with carbon capture to serve negative emissions or electrofuel production, thereby utilising biogenic carbon several times. Sensitivity analyses reveal significant uncertainties but consistently support that higher biofuel mandates lead to higher costs

Predictive value of heidelberg retina tomograph parameters for the development of glaucoma in the European glaucoma prevention study

PURPOSE: To determine whether baseline Heidelberg Retina Tomograph (HRT) measurements of the optic disc are associated with the development of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in individuals with ocular hypertension in the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a prospective, randomized, multicenter, double-masked, controlled clinical trial. METHODS: There were 489 participants in the HRT Ancillary Study to the EGPS. Each baseline HRT parameter was assessed in univariate and multivariate proportional hazards models to determine its association with the development of OAG. Proportional hazards models were used to identify HRT variables that predicted which participants in the EGPS had developed OAG. Development of OAG was based on visual field and/or optic disc changes. RESULTS: At a median follow-up time of about 5 years, 61 participants developed OAG. In multivariate analyses, adjusting for randomization arm, age, baseline IOP, central corneal thickness, pattern standard deviation, and HRT disc area, the following HRT parameters were associated with the development of OAG: the "outside normal limits" classification of the Frederick Mikelberg (FSM) discriminant function (hazard ratio [HR] 2.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.45-4.35), larger mean cup depth (HR 1.64, 95% CI: 1.21-2.23), cup-to-disc area ratio (HR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.14-1.80), linear cup-to-disc ratio (HR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.13-1.80), cup area (HR 1.33, 95% CI: 1.08-1.64), smaller rim area (HR 1.33, 95% CI: 1.07-1.64), larger cup volume (HR 1.30, 95% CI: 1.05-1.61), smaller rim volume (HR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.01-1.54), larger maximum cup depth (HR 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36), and cup shape measure (HR 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36). CONCLUSIONS: Several baseline HRT parameters, alone or in combination with baseline clinical and demographic factors, were significantly associated with the development of OAG among the EGPS participants

Early precipitated micropyrite in microbialites: A time capsule of microbial sulfur cycling

Microbialites are organosedimentary rocks that have occurred throughout the Earth’s history. The relationships between diverse microbial metabolic activities and isotopic signatures in biominerals forming within these microbialites are key to understanding modern biogeochemical cycles, but also for accurate interpretation of the geologic record. Here, we performed detailed mineralogical investigations coupled with NanoSIMS (Nanoscale Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry) analyses of pyrite S isotopes in mineralising microbial mats from two different environments, a hypersaline lagoon (Cayo Coco, Cuba) and a volcanic alkaline crater lake (Atexcac, Mexico). Both microbialite samples contain two distinct pyrite morphologies: framboids and euhedral micropyrites, which display distinct ranges of δ34S values1. Considering the sulfate-sulfur isotopic compositions associated with both environments, micropyrites display a remarkably narrow range of Δpyr (i.e. Δpyr ≡ δ34SSO4 − δ34Spyr) between 56 and 62‰. These measured Δpyr values agree with sulfate-sulfide equilibrium fractionation, as observed in natural settings characterised by low microbial sulfate reduction respiration rates. Moreover, the distribution of S isotope compositions recorded in the studied micropyrites suggests that sulfide oxidation also occurred at the microbialite scale. These results highlight the potential of micropyrites to capture signatures of microbial sulfur cycling and show that S isotope composition in pyrites record primarily the local micro-environments induced by the microbialite

Franchising as a Strategy for Combining Small and Large Group Advantages (Logics) in Social Entrepreneurship:A Hayekian Perspective

This article develops a Hayekian perspective on social franchising that distinguishes between the end-connected logic of the small group and the rule-connected logic of the big group. Our key claim is that mission-driven social entrepreneurs often draw on the small-group logic when starting their social ventures and then face difficulties when the process of scaling shifts their operations toward a big-group logic. In this situation, social franchising offers a strategy to replicate the small group despite systemwide scaling, to mobilize decentrally accessible social capital, and to reduce agency costs through mechanisms of self-selection and self-monitoring. By employing a Hayekian perspective, we are thus able to offer an explanation as to why social franchising is a suitable scaling strategy for some social entrepreneurship organizations and not for others. We illustrate our work using the Ashoka Fellow Wellcome

Analysis of Psychological Symptoms Following Disclosure of Amyloid-Positron Emission Tomography Imaging Results to Adults With Subjective Cognitive Decline

IMPORTANCE: Individuals who are amyloid-positive with subjective cognitive decline and clinical features increasing the likelihood of preclinical Alzheimer disease (SCD+) are at higher risk of developing dementia. Some individuals with SCD+ undergo amyloid-positron emission tomography (PET) as part of research studies and frequently wish to know their amyloid status; however, the disclosure of a positive amyloid-PET result might have psychological risks. OBJECTIVE: To assess the psychological outcomes of the amyloid-PET result disclosure in individuals with SCD+ and explore which variables are associated with a safer disclosure in individuals who are amyloid positive. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective, multicenter study was conducted as part of The Amyloid Imaging to Prevent Alzheimer Disease Diagnostic and Patient Management Study (AMYPAD-DPMS) (recruitment period: from April 2018 to October 2020). The setting was 5 European memory clinics, and participants included patients with SCD+ who underwent amyloid-PET. Statistical analysis was performed from July to October 2022. EXPOSURES: Disclosure of amyloid-PET result. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Psychological outcomes were defined as (1) disclosure related distress, assessed using the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R; scores of at least 33 indicate probable presence of posttraumatic stress disorder [PTSD]); and (2) anxiety and depression, assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (HADS; scores of at least 15 indicate probable presence of severe mood disorder symptoms). RESULTS: After disclosure, 27 patients with amyloid-positive SCD+ (median [IQR] age, 70 [66-74] years; gender: 14 men [52%]; median [IQR] education: 15 [13 to 17] years, median [IQR] Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE] score, 29 [28 to 30]) had higher median (IQR) IES-R total score (10 [2 to 14] vs 0 [0 to 2]; P < .001), IES-R avoidance (0.00 [0.00 to 0.69] vs 0.00 [0.00 to 0.00]; P < .001), IES-R intrusions (0.50 [0.13 to 0.75] vs 0.00 [0.00 to 0.25]; P < .001), and IES-R hyperarousal (0.33 [0.00 to 0.67] vs 0.00 [0.00 to 0.00]; P < .001) scores than the 78 patients who were amyloid-negative (median [IQR], age, 67 [64 to 74] years, 45 men [58%], median [IQR] education: 15 [12 to 17] years, median [IQR] MMSE score: 29 [28 to 30]). There were no observed differences between amyloid-positive and amyloid-negative patients in the median (IQR) HADS Anxiety (-1.0 [-3.0 to 1.8] vs -2.0 [-4.8 to 1.0]; P = .06) and Depression (-1.0 [-2.0 to 0.0] vs -1.0 [-3.0 to 0.0]; P = .46) deltas (score after disclosure - scores at baseline). In patients with amyloid-positive SCD+, despite the small sample size, higher education was associated with lower disclosure-related distress (ρ = -0.43; P = .02) whereas the presence of study partner was associated with higher disclosure-related distress (W = 7.5; P = .03). No participants with amyloid-positive SCD+ showed probable presence of PTSD or severe anxiety or depression symptoms at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The disclosure of a positive amyloid-PET result to patients with SCD+ was associated with a bigger psychological change, yet such change did not reach the threshold for clinical concern

Clinical Effect of Early vs Late Amyloid Positron Emission Tomography in Memory Clinic Patients: The AMYPAD-DPMS Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) allows the direct assessment of amyloid deposition, one of the main hallmarks of Alzheimer disease. However, this technique is currently not widely reimbursed because of the lack of appropriately designed studies demonstrating its clinical effect. OBJECTIVE: To assess the clinical effect of amyloid PET in memory clinic patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The AMYPAD-DPMS is a prospective randomized clinical trial in 8 European memory clinics. Participants were allocated (using a minimization method) to 3 study groups based on the performance of amyloid PET: arm 1, early in the diagnostic workup (within 1 month); arm 2, late in the diagnostic workup (after a mean [SD] 8 [2] months); or arm 3, if and when the managing physician chose. Participants were patients with subjective cognitive decline plus (SCD+; SCD plus clinical features increasing the likelihood of preclinical Alzheimer disease), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or dementia; they were assessed at baseline and after 3 months. Recruitment took place between April 16, 2018, and October 30, 2020. Data analysis was performed from July 2022 to January 2023. INTERVENTION: Amyloid PET. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: The main outcome was the difference between arm 1 and arm 2 in the proportion of participants receiving an etiological diagnosis with a very high confidence (ie, ≥90% on a 50%-100% visual numeric scale) after 3 months. RESULTS: A total of 844 participants were screened, and 840 were enrolled (291 in arm 1, 271 in arm 2, 278 in arm 3). Baseline and 3-month visit data were available for 272 participants in arm 1 and 260 in arm 2 (median [IQR] age: 71 [65-77] and 71 [65-77] years; 150/272 male [55%] and 135/260 male [52%]; 122/272 female [45%] and 125/260 female [48%]; median [IQR] education: 12 [10-15] and 13 [10-16] years, respectively). After 3 months, 109 of 272 participants (40%) in arm 1 had a diagnosis with very high confidence vs 30 of 260 (11%) in arm 2 (P < .001). This was consistent across cognitive stages (SCD+: 25/84 [30%] vs 5/78 [6%]; P < .001; MCI: 45/108 [42%] vs 9/102 [9%]; P < .001; dementia: 39/80 [49%] vs 16/80 [20%]; P < .001). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: In this study, early amyloid PET allowed memory clinic patients to receive an etiological diagnosis with very high confidence after only 3 months compared with patients who had not undergone amyloid PET. These findings support the implementation of amyloid PET early in the diagnostic workup of memory clinic patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT Number: 2017-002527-21

Overexpression of defense response genes in transgenic wheat enhances resistance to Fusarium head blight

Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, caused by Fusarium graminearum and other Fusarium species, is a major disease problem for wheat production worldwide. To combat this problem, large-scale breeding efforts have been established. Although progress has been made through standard breeding approaches, the level of resistance attained is insufficient to withstand epidemic conditions. Genetic engineering provides an alternative approach to enhance the level of resistance. Many defense response genes are induced in wheat during F. graminearum infection and may play a role in reducing FHB. The objectives of this study were (1) to develop transgenic wheat overexpressing the defense response genes α-1-purothionin, thaumatin-like protein 1 (tlp-1), and β-1,3-glucanase; and (2) to test the resultant transgenic wheat lines against F. graminearum infection under greenhouse and field conditions. Using the wheat cultivar Bobwhite, we developed one, two, and four lines carrying the α-1-purothionin, tlp-1, and β-1,3-glucanase transgenes, respectively, that had statistically significant reductions in FHB severity in greenhouse evaluations. We tested these seven transgenic lines under field conditions for percent FHB disease severity, deoxynivalenol (DON) mycotoxin accumulation, and percent visually scabby kernels (VSK). Six of the seven lines differed from the nontransgenic parental Bobwhite line for at least one of the disease traits. A β-1,3-glucanase transgenic line had enhanced resistance, showing lower FHB severity, DON concentration, and percent VSK compared to Bobwhite. Taken together, the results showed that overexpression of defense response genes in wheat could enhance the FHB resistance in both greenhouse and field conditions