Long-term bank lending and the transfer of aggregate risk

Long-term debt contracts transfer aggregate risk from borrowing firms to lending banks. When aggregate shocks increase the future default probability of firms, banks are not compensated for the default risk of existing contracts. If banks are highly leveraged, this can lead to financial instability with severe repercussions in the real economy. To study this mechanism quantitatively, we build a macroeconomic model of financial intermediation with long-term defaultable loan contracts and calibrate it to match aggregate firm and bank exposure to business cycle risks. Our model exhibits banking crises that closely resemble observed crisis episodes. We find that such crises do not arise in an economy with short-term debt. Our results on the role of long-term debt completely reverse if financial regulation is implemented to increase banks' risk bearing capacity. The financial sector is then well equipped to take on the aggregate risk, such that long-term lending stabilizes the business cycle by providing insurance to the corporate sector

Value congruence in a multinational corporation: Is alignment of values between individuals and organizations a universal maxim for Human Resource management?

Coherent privaatrech

Organisation der Familie und Betreuungsarbeit bei Wiedereinstieg der Frau in den Beruf

Nicht nur gesellschaftlich spürbar, sondern auch durch Jahrzehnte lange Forschung bestätigt, ist der Wandel der Geschlechterrollen. Ziel der vorliegenden Untersuchung war es, die häuslichen Aufgaben sowie den Alltag erwerbstätiger Mütter näher zu beleuchten. Dabei stellte sich die Frage, ob die angesprochene Traditionalisierung bei Wiedereinstieg in den Beruf wieder nachlässt. An der vorliegenden Untersuchung nahmen 30 Frauen mit einem Kind teil, die den Wiedereinstieg in den Beruf bereits vollzogen haben. Zur Beantwortung der Fragen wurde sowohl auf quantitative als auch auf qualitative Erhebungsinstrumente zurückgegriffen. Die quantitative Erhebung der Daten erfolgte durch einen Fragebogen, der sowohl aus selbstgestalteten Fragen als auch ausgewählten Teilen der Fragebogenbatterien aus der Studie von Rollet und Werneck (1993) zusammengesetzt wurde. Die Daten, auf denen die qualitative Untersuchung aufbaut, stammen aus Interviews, die an Gstöttl (1996) angelehnten wurden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Mütter in erster Linie aus intrinsischen Gründen berufstätig sind. Die meisten Kinder werden außerfamilial von Großeltern und Kindergärten betreut. Frauen erledigen sowohl bei den Haushaltstätigkeiten als auch bei der Kinderbetreuung vieles alleine. Die größte Partizipation der Männer zeigt sich beim Wegräumen sowie bei Geldangelegenheiten. Bezüglich der Kinderbetreuung teilen sich die Eltern Baden, Trösten und Spielen untereinander auf. Die Zufriedenheit bei der Aufteilung der Haushaltsaufgaben ist bei mehr als zwei Drittel der Frauen gegeben. Ähnlich zufrieden sind die Frauen auch bei der Aufteilung der Kinderbetreuung. Bei beiden Bereichen fehlt es ihnen allerdings auch an Unterstützung. Betrachtet man die Verteilung der Aufgaben über die Zeitspanne zwischen der Geburt des Kindes bis nach dem Wiedereinstieg, so lassen sich folgende Punkte festhalten. Vor allem während der Karenz kümmern sich Frauen vorwiegend alleine um Geldangelegenheiten, Kochen sowie den Abwasch. Dabei bekommen Frauen meist vor dem Kind mehr Unterstützung als während der Karenz. Nach dem Wiedereinstieg stellt sich bei diesen Tätigkeiten eine Erhöhung der Partizipation der Männer heraus. Die Aufteilung der meisten Aufgaben des täglichen Haushalts aber bleibt im Verlauf der Zeit konstant verteilt. Dies lässt darauf schließen, dass sich bei wenigen Tätigkeiten eine Traditionalisierung einstellt, die Aufteilung der meisten Aufgaben sich aber im Verlauf der Zeit nicht verändern. Die Faktoren der Bildung und des Einkommens haben ebenfalls Einfluss auf die Partizipation im Haushalt. Es ist festzuhalten, dass sich traditionell eingestellte Frauen als unglücklicher herausstellen als egalitär eingestellte. Bleiben Frauen zudem lange in Karenz und/ oder glauben an Gott so haben Kinder und Familie für sie einen höheren Stellenwert. Dies ist auch dann der Fall, wenn die Frauen ihre Partnerschaft als sehr glücklich oder glücklich erleben. Es zeigt sich weiters, dass Frauen mit unregelmäßig arbeitenden Partnern von einer egalitären Verteilung eher überzeugt sind als Frauen, deren Partner regelmäßig arbeiten. Gleichzeitig geht eine unregelmäßige Arbeitszeit des Mannes mit einer unglücklicheren Beziehung einher. Durch das Interview konnten die genaueren Umstände der Frauen aufgezeigt werden. Mehr als die Hälfte der Frauen berichtet, dass sie den Großteil des Haushalts alleine machen, wobei die andere Hälfte manchmal unterstützt wird. Fast jede zweite Frau spricht den Wunsch nach mehr Hilfe im Haushalt aus. Bei der Kinderbetreuung wird diese Klage nur von jeder 5. Frau geäußert. Bezüglich der Partnerschaft berichten im Interview etwa 50% der Frauen von einer Veränderung durch das erste Kind. Vergleicht man die Angaben aus dem Fragebogen mit jenen aus den Interviews wird deutlich, dass es bezüglich Zufriedenheit mit der Aufteilung signifikante Zusammenhänge gibt. Auch stimmen Angaben über den Wunsch nach mehr Partizipation seitens des Partners in beiden Erhebungsmethoden überein. Diese Studie zeigt, dass zwar ein Wandel der Geschlechterrollen im Gange ist, dieser aber vor allem in der Praxis häufig noch nicht umgesetzt wird.The change in gender processes has not only been perceptible but has also been verified by a variety of studies over the last decades. The aim of this study was to observe both domestic life and women’s daily routine. The question is whether the assigned traditional processes are modified after women return to work, and subsequently, whether men participate more in mastering household chores. In addition, factors considered essential were considered, namely the level of education, degree of happiness in the partnership, attitude towards parenthood, and definition of processes. 30 women, all mothers of one child and who had already returned to work, participated in this study. These women all have a very high level of education, equivalent to ‘A’ levels or university degrees. Both, qualitative and quantitative analysis were used to give answers to this case study. The questionnaire is in part made up of the author’s own questions; however, the main part of the questionnaire is composed of that used in the study of Rollett and Werneck (1993). It contains the Partnerschaftsfragebogen (Hahlweg, 1979) which addresses cooperation and the Elternschaftsfragebogen (Nickel et al., 1990) which examines attitudes towards parenthood. The interview was held in accordance with that of Gstöttl (1996). The results revealed that mothers are employed mainly for intrinsic reasons. In the vast majority of cases they manage household chores on their own. This is clearly shown with regard to financial matters, cooking, and washing up. Women are more often supported by their partners before a child is born than during the grace period. Once having returned to work, men increase their involvement in the tasks mentioned. In general it can be stated that the sharing ratio of most household tasks has not changed and remains constant. This indicates that a change of roles was found with respect to a few tasks but most responsibilities have remained unchanged over the years. Furthermore, traditional women are unhappier than modern women. In cases where women stay at home with their children for a long time and who are religious, children and family are given a higher value. Resulting from the interview, it was possible to demonstrate more precisely women’s daily routine. A large number of details were found in cases where changes in partnership were addressed. Both positive and negative changes were demonstrated. The current study has revealed that a change in gender processes is taking place even though this has not yet been put into practice in daily life

Impact of reduced anthropogenic emissions and century flood on the phosphorus stock, concentrations and stocks in the Upper Danube

AbstractPatterns of changes in the concentration of total and soluble reactive phosphorus (TP, SRP) and suspended sediments at different flow levels from 1991 to 2013 in the Austrian Danube are statistically analyzed and related to point and diffuse emissions, as well as to extreme hydrological events. Annual loads are calculated with three methods and their development in time is examined taking into consideration total emissions and hydrological conditions. The reduction of point discharges achieved during the 1990s was well translated into decreasing TP and SRP baseflow concentrations during the same period, but it did not induce any change in the concentrations at higher flow levels nor in the annual transport of TP loads. A sharp and long-lasting decline in TP concentration, affecting all flow levels, took place after a major flood in 2002. It was still visible during another major flood in 2013, which recorded lower TP concentrations than its predecessor. Such decline could not be linked to changes in point or diffuse emissions. This suggests that, as a result of the flood, the river system experienced a significant depletion of its in-stream phosphorus stock and a reduced mobilization of TP rich sediments afterwards. This hypothesis is corroborated by the decoupling of peak phosphorus loads from peak maximum discharges after 2002. These results are highly relevant for the design of monitoring schemes and for the correct interpretation of water quality data in terms of assessing the performance of environmental management measures

Long-term bank lending and the transfer of aggregate risk

Long-term loan contracts transfer aggregate risk from borrowing firms to lending banks. When aggregate shocks increase the future default probability of firms, banks are not compensated for the rising default risk of existing contracts. The flip side is that firms benefit from not facing higher interest rates in recessions. If banks are highly leveraged, this can lead to financial instability with severe repercussions in the real economy. If banks are well capitalized, the risk transfer stabilizes the economy. To study this mechanism quantitatively, we build a macroeconomic model of financial intermediation with long-term defaultable loan contracts and calibrate it to match aggregate firm and bank exposure to business cycle risks in the US. We find that moving from Basel II to Basel III capital regulation eliminates banking crises, increases output in the long run and improves welfare

The seasonal dynamics of the stream sources and input flow paths of water and nitrogen of an Austrian headwater agricultural catchment

AbstractOur study examines the source aquifers and stream inputs of the seasonal water and nitrogen dynamics of a headwater agricultural catchment to determine the dominant driving forces for the seasonal dynamics in the surface water nitrogen loads and concentrations. We found that the alternating aquifer contributions throughout the year of the deep and shallow aquifers were the main cause for the seasonality of the nitrate concentration. The deep aquifer water typically contributed 75% of the total outlet discharge in the summer and 50% in the winter when the shallow aquifer recharges due to low crop evapotranspiration. The shallow aquifer supplied the vast majority of the nitrogen load to the stream due to the significantly higher total nitrogen concentration (11mg-N/l) compared to the deep aquifer (0.50mg-N/l). The main stream input pathway for the shallow aquifer nitrogen load was from the perennial tile drainages providing 60% of the total load to the stream outlet, while only providing 26% of the total flow volume. The diffuse groundwater input to the stream was the largest input to the stream (39%), but only supplied 27% to the total nitrogen load as the diffuse water was mostly composed of deep aquifer water

Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low-flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterisations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976&ndash;1986, 1987&ndash;1997, 1998&ndash;2008), which allows for disentangling the effect of the objective function-related uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. <br><br> The results indicate that the seasonality of the low-flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of <i>Q</i>₉₅ low-flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the range of simulated <i>Q</i>₉₅ in the reference period is larger in basins with a summer low-flow regime than in basins with a winter low-flow regime. The accuracy of simulated <i>Q</i>₉₅ may result in a range of up to 60 % depending on the decade used for calibration. <br><br> The low-flow projections of Q₉₅ show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10–30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range &minus;5 to &minus;20 % for the climate change projected for the future period 2021&ndash;2050, relative the reference period 1978&ndash;2007. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the northern Alps and later low flows in eastern Austria. The total uncertainty of <i>Q</i>₉₅ projections is the largest in basins with a winter low-flow regime and, in some basins the range of <i>Q</i>₉₅ projections exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows, the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. The ANOVA assessment of the relative contribution of the three main variance components (i.e. climate scenario, decade used for model calibration and calibration variant representing different objective function) to the low-flow projection uncertainty shows that in basins with summer low flows climate scenarios contribute more than 75 % to the total projection uncertainty. In basins with a winter low-flow regime, the median contribution of climate scenario, decade and objective function is 29, 13 and 13 %, respectively. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resource management are discussed

Real-time monitoring of beta-d-glucuronidase activity in sediment laden streams: A comparison of prototypes

AbstractDetection of enzymatic activities has been proposed as a rapid surrogate for the culture-based microbiological pollution monitoring of water resources. This paper presents the results of tests on four fully automated prototype instruments for the on-site monitoring of beta-d-glucuronidase (GLUC) activity. The tests were performed on sediment-laden stream water in the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) during the period of March 2014 to March 2015. The dominant source of faecal pollution in the stream was swine manure applied to the fields within the catchment. The experiments indicated that instrument pairs with the same construction design yielded highly consistent results (R2 = 0.96 and R2 = 0.94), whereas the results between different designs were less consistent (R2 = 0.71). Correlations between the GLUC activity measured on-site and culture-based Escherichia coli analyses over the entire study period yielded R2 = 0.52 and R2 = 0.47 for the two designs, respectively. The correlations tended to be higher at the event scale. The GLUC activity was less correlated with suspended sediment concentrations than with E. coli, which is interpreted in terms of indicator applicability and the time since manure application. The study shows that this rapid assay can yield consistent results over a long period of on-site operation in technically challenging habitats. Although the use of GLUC activity as a proxy for culture-based assays could not be proven for the observed habitat, the study results suggest that this biochemical indicator has high potential for implementation in early warning systems

Integrated impact modelling of climate change and adaptation policies on land use and water resources in Austria"

Climate change is a major driver of land use and ecosystems. Changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Autonomous adaptation by farmers can influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUW model, and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Stakeholder driven scenarios facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. Climate change scenarios are combined with socio-economic and policy pathways. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil and crop rotation management. The results show that the selected climate change and policy scenarios impact average agricultural gross margins by ±2%. However, regional impacts are more severe particularly under assumptions of decreasing precipitation patterns. The water protection policies can alleviate pressures compared to the business as usual scenario but do not lead to sufficient conditions in all watersheds. To conclude, the IIMF is able to capture the interfaces between water quality and land use and to cover multiple policy and climate scenarios. However, despite efforts to increase the robustness of data and model interfaces, uncertainties need to be tackled in subsequent studies