Long-term bank lending and the transfer of aggregate risk

Long-term debt contracts transfer aggregate risk from borrowing firms to lending banks. When aggregate shocks increase the future default probability of firms, banks are not compensated for the default risk of existing contracts. If banks are highly leveraged, this can lead to financial instability with severe repercussions in the real economy. To study this mechanism quantitatively, we build a macroeconomic model of financial intermediation with long-term defaultable loan contracts and calibrate it to match aggregate firm and bank exposure to business cycle risks. Our model exhibits banking crises that closely resemble observed crisis episodes. We find that such crises do not arise in an economy with short-term debt. Our results on the role of long-term debt completely reverse if financial regulation is implemented to increase banks' risk bearing capacity. The financial sector is then well equipped to take on the aggregate risk, such that long-term lending stabilizes the business cycle by providing insurance to the corporate sector

Value congruence in a multinational corporation: Is alignment of values between individuals and organizations a universal maxim for Human Resource management?

Coherent privaatrech

Organisation der Familie und Betreuungsarbeit bei Wiedereinstieg der Frau in den Beruf

Nicht nur gesellschaftlich spürbar, sondern auch durch Jahrzehnte lange Forschung bestätigt, ist der Wandel der Geschlechterrollen. Ziel der vorliegenden Untersuchung war es, die häuslichen Aufgaben sowie den Alltag erwerbstätiger Mütter näher zu beleuchten. Dabei stellte sich die Frage, ob die angesprochene Traditionalisierung bei Wiedereinstieg in den Beruf wieder nachlässt. An der vorliegenden Untersuchung nahmen 30 Frauen mit einem Kind teil, die den Wiedereinstieg in den Beruf bereits vollzogen haben. Zur Beantwortung der Fragen wurde sowohl auf quantitative als auch auf qualitative Erhebungsinstrumente zurückgegriffen. Die quantitative Erhebung der Daten erfolgte durch einen Fragebogen, der sowohl aus selbstgestalteten Fragen als auch ausgewählten Teilen der Fragebogenbatterien aus der Studie von Rollet und Werneck (1993) zusammengesetzt wurde. Die Daten, auf denen die qualitative Untersuchung aufbaut, stammen aus Interviews, die an Gstöttl (1996) angelehnten wurden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Mütter in erster Linie aus intrinsischen Gründen berufstätig sind. Die meisten Kinder werden außerfamilial von Großeltern und Kindergärten betreut. Frauen erledigen sowohl bei den Haushaltstätigkeiten als auch bei der Kinderbetreuung vieles alleine. Die größte Partizipation der Männer zeigt sich beim Wegräumen sowie bei Geldangelegenheiten. Bezüglich der Kinderbetreuung teilen sich die Eltern Baden, Trösten und Spielen untereinander auf. Die Zufriedenheit bei der Aufteilung der Haushaltsaufgaben ist bei mehr als zwei Drittel der Frauen gegeben. Ähnlich zufrieden sind die Frauen auch bei der Aufteilung der Kinderbetreuung. Bei beiden Bereichen fehlt es ihnen allerdings auch an Unterstützung. Betrachtet man die Verteilung der Aufgaben über die Zeitspanne zwischen der Geburt des Kindes bis nach dem Wiedereinstieg, so lassen sich folgende Punkte festhalten. Vor allem während der Karenz kümmern sich Frauen vorwiegend alleine um Geldangelegenheiten, Kochen sowie den Abwasch. Dabei bekommen Frauen meist vor dem Kind mehr Unterstützung als während der Karenz. Nach dem Wiedereinstieg stellt sich bei diesen Tätigkeiten eine Erhöhung der Partizipation der Männer heraus. Die Aufteilung der meisten Aufgaben des täglichen Haushalts aber bleibt im Verlauf der Zeit konstant verteilt. Dies lässt darauf schließen, dass sich bei wenigen Tätigkeiten eine Traditionalisierung einstellt, die Aufteilung der meisten Aufgaben sich aber im Verlauf der Zeit nicht verändern. Die Faktoren der Bildung und des Einkommens haben ebenfalls Einfluss auf die Partizipation im Haushalt. Es ist festzuhalten, dass sich traditionell eingestellte Frauen als unglücklicher herausstellen als egalitär eingestellte. Bleiben Frauen zudem lange in Karenz und/ oder glauben an Gott so haben Kinder und Familie für sie einen höheren Stellenwert. Dies ist auch dann der Fall, wenn die Frauen ihre Partnerschaft als sehr glücklich oder glücklich erleben. Es zeigt sich weiters, dass Frauen mit unregelmäßig arbeitenden Partnern von einer egalitären Verteilung eher überzeugt sind als Frauen, deren Partner regelmäßig arbeiten. Gleichzeitig geht eine unregelmäßige Arbeitszeit des Mannes mit einer unglücklicheren Beziehung einher. Durch das Interview konnten die genaueren Umstände der Frauen aufgezeigt werden. Mehr als die Hälfte der Frauen berichtet, dass sie den Großteil des Haushalts alleine machen, wobei die andere Hälfte manchmal unterstützt wird. Fast jede zweite Frau spricht den Wunsch nach mehr Hilfe im Haushalt aus. Bei der Kinderbetreuung wird diese Klage nur von jeder 5. Frau geäußert. Bezüglich der Partnerschaft berichten im Interview etwa 50% der Frauen von einer Veränderung durch das erste Kind. Vergleicht man die Angaben aus dem Fragebogen mit jenen aus den Interviews wird deutlich, dass es bezüglich Zufriedenheit mit der Aufteilung signifikante Zusammenhänge gibt. Auch stimmen Angaben über den Wunsch nach mehr Partizipation seitens des Partners in beiden Erhebungsmethoden überein. Diese Studie zeigt, dass zwar ein Wandel der Geschlechterrollen im Gange ist, dieser aber vor allem in der Praxis häufig noch nicht umgesetzt wird.The change in gender processes has not only been perceptible but has also been verified by a variety of studies over the last decades. The aim of this study was to observe both domestic life and women’s daily routine. The question is whether the assigned traditional processes are modified after women return to work, and subsequently, whether men participate more in mastering household chores. In addition, factors considered essential were considered, namely the level of education, degree of happiness in the partnership, attitude towards parenthood, and definition of processes. 30 women, all mothers of one child and who had already returned to work, participated in this study. These women all have a very high level of education, equivalent to ‘A’ levels or university degrees. Both, qualitative and quantitative analysis were used to give answers to this case study. The questionnaire is in part made up of the author’s own questions; however, the main part of the questionnaire is composed of that used in the study of Rollett and Werneck (1993). It contains the Partnerschaftsfragebogen (Hahlweg, 1979) which addresses cooperation and the Elternschaftsfragebogen (Nickel et al., 1990) which examines attitudes towards parenthood. The interview was held in accordance with that of Gstöttl (1996). The results revealed that mothers are employed mainly for intrinsic reasons. In the vast majority of cases they manage household chores on their own. This is clearly shown with regard to financial matters, cooking, and washing up. Women are more often supported by their partners before a child is born than during the grace period. Once having returned to work, men increase their involvement in the tasks mentioned. In general it can be stated that the sharing ratio of most household tasks has not changed and remains constant. This indicates that a change of roles was found with respect to a few tasks but most responsibilities have remained unchanged over the years. Furthermore, traditional women are unhappier than modern women. In cases where women stay at home with their children for a long time and who are religious, children and family are given a higher value. Resulting from the interview, it was possible to demonstrate more precisely women’s daily routine. A large number of details were found in cases where changes in partnership were addressed. Both positive and negative changes were demonstrated. The current study has revealed that a change in gender processes is taking place even though this has not yet been put into practice in daily life

Long-term bank lending and the transfer of aggregate risk

Long-term loan contracts transfer aggregate risk from borrowing firms to lending banks. When aggregate shocks increase the future default probability of firms, banks are not compensated for the rising default risk of existing contracts. The flip side is that firms benefit from not facing higher interest rates in recessions. If banks are highly leveraged, this can lead to financial instability with severe repercussions in the real economy. If banks are well capitalized, the risk transfer stabilizes the economy. To study this mechanism quantitatively, we build a macroeconomic model of financial intermediation with long-term defaultable loan contracts and calibrate it to match aggregate firm and bank exposure to business cycle risks in the US. We find that moving from Basel II to Basel III capital regulation eliminates banking crises, increases output in the long run and improves welfare

Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low-flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterisations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976–1986, 1987–1997, 1998–2008), which allows for disentangling the effect of the objective function-related uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. The results indicate that the seasonality of the low-flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of Q95 low-flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the range of simulated Q95 in the reference period is larger in basins with a summer low-flow regime than in basins with a winter low-flow regime. The accuracy of simulated Q95 may result in a range of up to 60 % depending on the decade used for calibration. The low-flow projections of Q95 show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10–30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range −5 to −20 % for the climate change projected for the future period 2021–2050, relative the reference period 1978–2007. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the northern Alps and later low flows in eastern Austria. The total uncertainty of Q95 projections is the largest in basins with a winter low-flow regime and, in some basins the range of Q95 projections exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows, the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. The ANOVA assessment of the relative contribution of the three main variance components (i.e. climate scenario, decade used for model calibration and calibration variant representing different objective function) to the low-flow projection uncertainty shows that in basins with summer low flows climate scenarios contribute more than 75 % to the total projection uncertainty. In basins with a winter low-flow regime, the median contribution of climate scenario, decade and objective function is 29, 13 and 13 %, respectively. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resource management are discussed

Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low-flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterisations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976&ndash;1986, 1987&ndash;1997, 1998&ndash;2008), which allows for disentangling the effect of the objective function-related uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. <br><br> The results indicate that the seasonality of the low-flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of <i>Q</i>₉₅ low-flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the range of simulated <i>Q</i>₉₅ in the reference period is larger in basins with a summer low-flow regime than in basins with a winter low-flow regime. The accuracy of simulated <i>Q</i>₉₅ may result in a range of up to 60 % depending on the decade used for calibration. <br><br> The low-flow projections of Q₉₅ show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10–30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range &minus;5 to &minus;20 % for the climate change projected for the future period 2021&ndash;2050, relative the reference period 1978&ndash;2007. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the northern Alps and later low flows in eastern Austria. The total uncertainty of <i>Q</i>₉₅ projections is the largest in basins with a winter low-flow regime and, in some basins the range of <i>Q</i>₉₅ projections exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows, the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. The ANOVA assessment of the relative contribution of the three main variance components (i.e. climate scenario, decade used for model calibration and calibration variant representing different objective function) to the low-flow projection uncertainty shows that in basins with summer low flows climate scenarios contribute more than 75 % to the total projection uncertainty. In basins with a winter low-flow regime, the median contribution of climate scenario, decade and objective function is 29, 13 and 13 %, respectively. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resource management are discussed

Integrated impact modelling of climate change and adaptation policies on land use and water resources in Austria"

Climate change is a major driver of land use and ecosystems. Changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Autonomous adaptation by farmers can influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUW model, and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Stakeholder driven scenarios facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. Climate change scenarios are combined with socio-economic and policy pathways. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil and crop rotation management. The results show that the selected climate change and policy scenarios impact average agricultural gross margins by ±2%. However, regional impacts are more severe particularly under assumptions of decreasing precipitation patterns. The water protection policies can alleviate pressures compared to the business as usual scenario but do not lead to sufficient conditions in all watersheds. To conclude, the IIMF is able to capture the interfaces between water quality and land use and to cover multiple policy and climate scenarios. However, despite efforts to increase the robustness of data and model interfaces, uncertainties need to be tackled in subsequent studies

Automated online monitoring of fecal pollution in water by enzymatic methods

RÉSUMÉ: To facilitate the prompt management of public health risks from water resources, the fluorescence-based detection of the enzymatic activity of β-d-glucuronidase (GLUC) has been suggested as a rapid method to monitor fecal pollution. New technological adaptations enable now its automated, near-real-time measurement in a robust and analytically precise manner. Large data sets of high temporal or spatial resolution have been reported from a variety of freshwater resources, demonstrating the great potential of this automated method. However, the fecal indication capacity of GLUC activity and the potential link to health risk is still unclear, presenting considerable limitations. This review provides a critical evaluation of automated, online GLUC-based methods (and alternatives) and defines open questions to be solved before the method can fully support water management

Understanding feedbacks between economic decisions and the phosphorus resource cycle: A general equilibrium model including material flows

By combining an economic two-sector general equilibrium model with a material flow model we study the coupled human-resource-environment feedbacks associated with phosphorus use and recycling, and the economic and environmental effects of implementing phosphorus recovering technologies from waste water. Using recycled phosphorus as fertilizer increases environmental quality and profits in the agricultural sector. Furthermore, the economy does not depend as much on mineral fertilizer imports and is therefore more resilient to a price increase on the global phosphorus market. However, there is a need to improve the quantity and quality of recycled phosphorus products. Overall, reduction of phosphorus in soil and water bodies as result of economic decisions is only possible if phosphorus is recovered from waste water and the prices of imported mineral fertilizer rise. Policy makers can support this technological change by subsidizing recycled phosphorus or introducing taxes or tolls for imported mineral fertilizer to increase its price. Alternatively, societal values would have to change. Such a change may be induced by putting a higher preference on a healthy environment and hence being willing to pay more for food and consequently production inputs like phosphorus fertilizer recycled from sewage sludge