Prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients using classification and regression tree analysis

OBJECTIVES: Recent guidelines recommend that all cirrhotic patients should undergo endoscopic screening for esophageal varices. That identifying cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices by noninvasive predictors would allow for the restriction of the performance of endoscopy to patients with a high risk of having varices. This study aimed to develop a decision model based on classification and regression tree analysis for the prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients. METHODS: 309 cirrhotic patients (training sample, 187 patients; test sample 122 patients) were included. Within the training sample, the classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify predictors and prediction model of large esophageal varices. The prediction model was then further evaluated in the test sample and different Child-Pugh classes. RESULTS: The prevalence of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients was 50.8%. A tree model that was consisted of spleen width, portal vein diameter and prothrombin time was developed by classification and regression tree analysis achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 84% for prediction of large esophageal varices. When reconstructed into two groups, the rate of varices was 83.2% for high-risk group and 15.2% for low-risk group. Accuracy of the tree model was maintained in the test sample and different Child-Pugh classes. CONCLUSIONS: A decision tree model that consists of spleen width, portal vein diameter and prothrombin time may be useful for prediction of large esophageal varices in cirrhotic patient

(31(4):313-320)Scanning Electron Microscope Observation on the Floral Ontageny and Development of Mango (Mangifera indica L.)

由前人研究知檬果花性比（sex ratio）因品種與溫度等條件變化而有所不同。近年來本省各地有些檬果植株有「白花穗」的不正常現象，由於白花穗的兩性花較少，加上其他未知原因，造成結果不良。本研究以掃描式電子顯微鏡配合解剖顯微鏡，由外部形態觀察檬果小花的發育過程，發現所有小花均為兩性花，但因發育中子房停止發育，才變成雄花。進一步生理原因的調查正在進行中。 The ontageny and development sequence of the flower bud on mango panicle is observed by scanning electron microscope and dissecting microscope. The results indicate that all the flower buds are originally designed to develope into hermaphrodite. With the degeneration of the gynoecium, the male flowers occurred for some unknown reason

(43(1):63-68)檬果藥劑摧花與腋花穗誘引

Three chemicals were compared for their ability to cause mango apical panicle destruction and axillary panicle induction in order to save the labor used in hand deblossoming. The results showed that ten days were required to kill the treated panicles. Two more weeks were neesded for the initiated axillary buds to reach a lenght of 0.5 cm. The initiation period needed, however, increased with the length of panicles treated. Side effects caused by these panicle-killing chemicals and possible measures to lessen the injury severity are also discussed. About fifty percent out of all the treatments were successful in axillary panicle induction. The adequate spraying concentrations recommended are: cycloheximide: 0.25 g/l, dinoseb: 0.5 ml/l, PCP: 5.0 g/l.檬果（Mangifera indica L.）摘去頂花穗誘引腋花穗的形成，在本省實際利用上有兩個方向：一是調節產期，增加收益；一是避開天災（如寒害），確保生產。由於人工摘穗在實際操作上相當費工，本研究以藥劑於元月底與二月中旬兩次摧花來誘引腋花穗。結果為以dinoseb，PCP與cyclo-heximide處理頂花穗後，十天左右可使頂花穗枯萎，部分枝條在處理後二至四週後可長出腋花芽，但部分枝條則未長出，成功率約50%，但部分葉片或葉柄有藥害產生。花穗較長者處理後長出腋花芽所需時間較久，不同日期兩次摧花間沒有差異。暫訂噴用的濃度為：cycloheximide 0.25 g／l；dinoseb 0.5 ml／l；PCP 7.5 g／l

DRIS and the Nutritional Diagnosis of Fruit Trees

植物營養診斷的方法有很多種，其中葉片分析診斷方法為目前世界上使用最多的一種方法。但由於此方法仍有一些問題存在如無法克服葉齡、品種、砧木與季節等所造成元素濃度的差異，因而有DRIS(Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System)系統的推出。DRIS是近年來發展出來植物分析診斷的新關念。它利用營養成分的比例來解釋植物成分分析的結果。理論上這個系統可以辨識所有可能找出來影響植物生育的植物、土壤和環境等因子，並使數量化。這些因子之問的相互關係可以用標準值(norms或稱基準），或DRIS指標(DRIS index)，或營養不平衡指標(NII, Nutritional imbalance Index)等來表示。DRIS的好處有：考慮元素間的平衡、沒有地域性，不必考慮品種間與生育階段的差異以及它可排出限制生育因素的次序等。目前DRIS在幾種農藝作物上，如玉米、大豆等已有成功的實例，但它使用在果樹上的結果則不太一致，本文將做討論。 Among all the nutritional analysis and diagnosis systems used in plant, leaf analysis is the most commonly used one. However, as leaf age, cultivars root stocks, seasons and other factors influences greatly the element concentrations in the leaf, special sampling procedures are used for each cultivar or even individual plant. DRIS (Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System) was developed to eliminate the concentrational differences caused by leaf age, cultivars, root stocks, seasons and other factors. It also takes into consideration the balance among nutrient elements and lists the order of limiting importance to yield. Although DRIS has been successfully applied to several agronomical crops, the examples in fruit crops has been few and results contraversial

土壤反應對愛文檬果葉片養分濃度的影響

Leaf and soil sample were collected from 24 mango orchards of 5 prepectures in Taiwan and analyzed in order to establish the relationships between soil pH values, soil nutrient concentrations, and leaf compositions. Results indicated that Ca is the only leaf nutrient having a positive correlation (r=0.80) with soil pH value. Other leaf nutrients were found to have no such significant correlation with either pH value or soil nutrient concentrations. Mango Ca concentration in Taiwan was found to be lower than that of the Florida standard in the U.S.. This was probably attributable to the lower pH value in the soil of the island.本試驗由台中、嘉義、台南、高雄及屏東等5縣24處檬果園採集葉片與土壤樣品進行分析。結果顯示，本省檬果園因管理方法不同，同一地區內土壤酸鹼反應差異頗大；土壤酸鹼度與葉片鈣含量呈正相關(r=0.82)，其餘各要素含量與土壤反應之關係不顯著。本省檬果葉片鈣含量較美國佛州標準為低，其原因可能由於土壤反應之影響。本省檬果葉片鈣標準值似可依據實際情形予以修訂，正確數值有待進一步之測定