The Allure of Distant War Drums: Refugees, Geography, and Foreign Policy Preferences in Turkey

Previous research argues that countries often intervene in the conflicts that cause refugees to flow across their borders. Public opinion against refugees may pressure states to intervene to ‘solve the refugee problem.’ We study what shapes public support for such intervention using a survey experiment in Turkey against the backdrop of the Syrian refugee crisis. We survey over 1,200 respondents with varied exposure to refugees, and randomize information about the consequences of hosting refugees to examine its effects on support for intervention in Syria. Emphasizing the negative externalities of hosting refugees, including their connection with militants, increases support for intervention among respondents who reside far from the Turkish-Syrian border. Closer to the border, this information reduces support for intervention in Syria. These findings highlight that vulnerability to the costs of intervention (proximity to the border) shapes public support for intervening. We also find that public opinion towards intervention is correlated with partisan identity and respondents' daily exposure to refugees

Improved effective mobility extraction in MOSFETs

The standard method of extracting carrier effective mobility from electrical measurements on MOSFETs is reviewed and the assumptions implicit in this method are discussed. A novel technique is suggested that corrects for the difference in drain bias during IV and CV measurements. It is further shown that the lateral field and diffusion corrections, which are both commonly neglected, in fact cancel. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is demonstrated by application to data measured on a quasi-planar SOI finFET at 300 K and 4 K

The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation

This report surveys the landscape of potential security threats from malicious uses of AI, and proposes ways to better forecast, prevent, and mitigate these threats. After analyzing the ways in which AI may influence the threat landscape in the digital, physical, and political domains, we make four high-level recommendations for AI researchers and other stakeholders. We also suggest several promising areas for further research that could expand the portfolio of defenses, or make attacks less effective or harder to execute. Finally, we discuss, but do not conclusively resolve, the long-term equilibrium of attackers and defenders.Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Center for a New American Security, Electronic Frontier Foundation, OpenAI. The Future of Life Institute is acknowledged as a funder

What is Political Violence?

This brief article discusses how to define political violence, and why a sharp definition of political violence is important

A Threat on the Horizon? China’s Growing Economic Influence in Latin America and its Implications for U.S. Interests in the Region

Mentor: Gaetano Antinolfi From the Washington University Undergraduate Research Digest: WUURD, Volume 3, Issue 1, Fall 2007. Published by the Office of Undergraduate Research. Henry Biggs, Director of Undergraduate Research and Associate Dean in the College of Arts & Sciences; Joy Zalis Kiefer, Undergraduate Research Coordinator, Co-editor, and Assistant Dean in the College of Arts & Sciences; Kristin Sobotka, Editor

Why Radical Movements Collapse and Resurge: Evidence from the U.S. Radical Environmental Movement

Why did the radical environmental movement decline in the mid-2000’s in the U.S? Given the threat posed by global warming, why haven’t we seen the emergence of more intense contentious tactics from the movement? I develop a theory of why radical movements emerge, and why they collapse. I argue that pre-existing activist networks, along with the salience of an organizing threat like climate change, influence the emergence and tactics of radical movements. But repression changes a movement and has both a direct and indirect effect. Arrests and threats of repression can lead activists to exit the movement or change tactics (direct effect). As new activists from different networks enter the movement, they bring their own norms and preferred tactics (indirect effect). To test this theory, I take a mixed methods approach to the U.S. radical environmental movement and provide evidence from: 1) a new dataset of eco direct actions from 1995-2022; 2) novel survey data of the American public, younger Americans, and activists; and 3) semi-structured interviews with past and present activists and experts. The findings show the importance of pre-existing networks as pathways into radical activism. They also show how norms against property destruction, and the response to repression shaped the subsequent trajectory of the movement

Replication Data for: In the Shadow of Conflict: How Emotions, Threat Perceptions, and Victimization Influence Foreign Policy Attitudes

The following contains STATA .dta and .do files to replicate the "How Emotions, Threat Perceptions, and Victimization Influence Foreign Policy Attitudes." Co-authored Alexander Kupatadze

The new public address system: why do world leaders adopt social media?

The growth of social media—and, in particular, Twitter and Facebook—has led scholars to study its effects on mass behavior and protest. But leaders are also active on social media. They use their accounts to communicate with domestic and international audiences. By the end of 2014, more than 76 percent of world leaders had an active presence on social media. What explains variation in their adoption and use of social media? We look at several different potential hypotheses: higher income per capita and internet penetration (modernization), social pressure, level of democratization, and geographic spread of adoption (diffusion). We find strong support that (1) increased political pressure from social unrest and (2) higher levels of democratization correlate with leader adoption of social media platforms. Although our findings are correlational, they reveal that institutional and political pressures are related to social media adoption and the political communication of world leaders