Economic and Financial Factors Affecting Currency Stability of Floating Exchange Rate Regimes: A Survival Analysis

Currency crises can wreak havoc on countries economically, financially, and politically. This study has been conducted in the spirit of attempting to find a general notion of why such crises occur. The aim is to describe, based on empirical evidence, a general time dependent evolution of currency crisis probabilities. Furthermore, the goal is to uncover general and systemic variables driving currency crises. The research utilizes survival analysis. Durations of tranquility are used to determine probabilities of crises. In turn, economic and financial variables are used to test possible linkages to these crises. In the study, durations of tranquil periods are defined by the absence of a downward pressure on the domestic currency. Pressure periods are defined by an ‘Exchange Market Pressure’ indicator. The end of a tranquil period is a crisis and probabilities of these are determined through the model. The study revealed that the evolution of crisis probabilities over time are generally upward sloping. In the model these are shown by the hazard functions increasing. This implies that the more time a country in a tranquil period the higher the chances that it undergoes a crisis in its currency market. The conclusion holds for countries that survived to a particular time thus, these probabilities are conditional. This suggests that time spent in a tranquil period does not lower the probability of having a currency crisis. In the context of survival analysis explanatory variables are hypothesized to influence currency crises. Nine variables are included in the study: current account, direct investment, portfolio investment, IMF credit as percent of quota, real GDP growth, real effective exchange rate, unemployment, the LIBOR and the VIX. Of the variables included two have shown promise in robustly affecting currency crises probabilities. These were unemployment, and real GDP growth. Results suggest that a higher level of unemployment is expected to lower currency crises probabilities while increased real GDP is shown to increase them. In the last section of the study country specific hazard graphs are drawn to compare the evolution of their respective crisis probabilities to the ‘average’ country. The comparison may aid investors in gauging the relative hazard of depreciation across countries and relative potential loss across currencies

Double-blind placebo controlled trial of the anxiolytic effects of a standardized Echinacea extract

Earlier studies suggested that specific Echinacea preparations might decrease anxiety. To further study the issue, we performed a double blind, placebo controlled trial with a standardized Echinacea angustifolia root extract. Participants were volunteers scoring above 45 points on the state or on the trait subscale of the State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). They were treated with 40 mg Echinacea or with placebo tablets twice daily for 7 days followed by a 3 week-long washout period. Participants were also administered the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS). In the Echinacea group, state anxiety scores decreased by approximately 11 points by the end of the treatment period, whereas the decrease was around 3-points in the placebo group (p< 0.01). The effect maintained over the washout period. The difference from placebo was significant from the 7th day of treatment throughout. Changes were less robust with trait anxiety scores, but the preparation performed better than placebo in patients with high baseline anxiety. Neither BDI nor PSS scores were affected by the treatments. Adverse effects were rare and mild, and all were observed in the placebo group. These findings suggest that particular Echinacea preparations have significant beneficial effects on anxiety in humans

Response of lemon balm (Melissa officinalis L.) accessions to Septoria leaf spot (Septoria melissae Desm.) in Hungary

Septoria melissae Desm., the most important pathogen of lemon balm (Melissa officinalis) occurs each year on plantations. The fungus may cause serious yield losses in the absence of proper plant protection. Breeding resistant or tolerant cultivars could play an important role in plant protection of medicinal plants. However, only a few descriptions of tolerant varieties of lemon balm are available. The goal of this work was to evaluate the susceptibility of three accessions of M. officinalis against the pathogen of Septoria leaf spot under field conditions at Budapest-Soroksár (Hungary) in 2017–2018. Differences in susceptibility of the accessions were observed in both years. The accession of M. officinalis subsp. altissima proved to be the least susceptible to Septoria infection. The frequency of the infected leaves was only 5.1 and 28.1% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. However, the cultivar M. officinalis subsp. officinalis ‘Lorelei’ turned out to be the most susceptible to the pathogen with an average infection level of 26.1 and 66.6%, 1.3–6.1 times higher than that of the other accessions in each year, respectively. Development of disease tolerant M. officinalis cultivars may be an effective tool in the plant protection of lemon balm

Microbial biofilm in human health - an updated theoretical and practical insight

The term biofilm designates an aggregate of microorganisms belonging to one or more species which adhere to various surfaces but also to each another. These microbial communities are included and interconnected within an organic structure known as slime, composed of protein substances, polysaccharides, and DNA