Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Prestorage inline leukodepletion of buffy coat-depleted packed red blood cells: Comparative analysis of white blood cell count and interleukin-8 between leukodepleted and nonleukodepleted packed red blood cells

Background and Objectives: We aimed to analyze the impact of prestorage Inline leukodepletion and storage time on interleukin 8 (IL-8) levels in stored buffy coat-depleted packed red blood cell (PRBC) units in the Kashmiri population setting. Methods: A total of 50 donors of Kashmiri origin from North India equally and randomly distributed between Leukodepleted (LD) and non-LD (NLD) arms were recruited in this study. Leukodepletion of PRBCs units was performed using 3rd Generation integrated LD filters and the residual white blood cell (WBC) count was enumerated by FACS using fluorochrome-tagged CD45+ antibodies and IL-8 levels measured by ELISA. Results: In contrast to NLD arm, leukodepletion in the LD arm significantly reduced total leukocyte count (TLC) from pre-LD TLC of 2.25 ± 0.47 × 109/PRBC unit to post LD cell count of 2.40 ± 0.65 × 106/PRBC unit, P = 0.001, i.e., 3 log reduction, P = 0.0001. Contrary to the LD arm, a significant difference in IL-8 levels in NLD arm was observed with 27.15 ± 30.32 pg/mL on day 0, 45.15 ± 36.15 pg/mL on day 14, and on day 28, 37.98 ± 33.05 pg/mL. Furthermore, significant variance (LD vs. NLD) in IL-8 levels was observed at day 0, 14th, and 28th day of storage, with maximum variance observed on day 14th Fstat = 21.46, P = 0.00, depicting prestorage LD have a significant role in suppressing the IL-8 levels in LD stored PRBC units while as in NLD PRBC units with time IL-8 accumulated as its cell source (WBCs) was intact. Conclusion: Inline prestorage leukodepletion by 3rd generation LD filters was uniformly effective in reducing the residual WBC count to desired levels of <5 × 106/unit of PRBC. The significant decrease in TLC and resultant far less accumulation of cytokine (IL-8) in prestorage LD PRBC units of Kashmiri origin, as observed in this study, would be translated into clinical benefits associated with transfusion of LD-PRBC units

CSF Neurofilament-H Levels as a Potential Section Prognostic Marker in Patients of GuillainBarré Syndrome- A Cohort Study

Introduction: The prognosis of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) at an early stage with explicit biomarkers is critical to distinguish patients with possibility of poor recovery. Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) serves as an impending source for biomarkers that portrays the exact biochemical changes. Aim: To find out if there is any prognostic value of high CSF phosphorylated Neurofilament Heavy subunit (pNf-H) levels, measured during first two weeks of onset of GBS, as assessed by the level of disability at six months after the onset of GBS. Materials and Methods: The cohort study was conducted in the Department of Neurology and Department of Immunology and Molecular Medicine, at the Sher-I-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences, Soura, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India, over a period of two years from August 2015 to August 2017. Sixty two patients who satisfied the required diagnostic standards for GBS (study group) and 35 patients with tension-type headache (control group) were selected for the study. After clinical and electrophysiological assessment, CSF samples were collected. A commercially available sandwich enzyme immunoassay kit, manufactured by BioVendor-Laboratorní medicína (Czech Republic), was used for measuring human pNf-H quantitatively. Results: Mean CSF pNf-H level in patients with good outcome was 325.3 pg/mL whereas, in patients with poor outcome it was 3655.2 pg/mL. CSF pNf-H levels were found to be suggestively higher in GBS patients with poor outcome as compared to those with good outcome. Only eight patients in good outcome group had pathologically high CSF Nf-H levels whereas 10 patients in poor outcome group had CSF Nf-H levels ≤730 pg/mL. The odds ratio was 17.1 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 3.83-76.29). Thus, high CSF Nf-H levels on admission predicted poor outcome in GBS (p-value <0.001). Moderate degree of positive correlation was found between CSF Nf-H levels and outcome (F score) at six months (R=0.684; p-value <0.001). Conclusion: It can be determined that higher values of CSF pNf-H in GBS (acute stage), could serve as a predictive marker indicative of poor prognosis

Effect of Vitamin D supplementation on glycemic parameters and progression of prediabetes to diabetes: A 1-year, open-label randomized study

Background: Whether Vitamin D supplementation in prediabetes subjects prevents the development of diabetes is a matter of debate, and the results are inconsistent. This open-label, randomized study in subjects with prediabetes evaluated the effect of 12 months of Vitamin D supplementation on glycemic parameters and progression of prediabetes to diabetes in an ethnically homogeneous Kashmiri population. Materials and Methods: A total of 147 subjects were diagnosed as prediabetes out of which 137 subjects were randomized to receive in addition to standard lifestyle measures, either Vitamin D 60,000 IU weekly for 4 weeks and then 60,000 IU monthly (n = 69) or no Vitamin D (n = 68). Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose and A1C levels were estimated at 0, 6 and 12 months. Changes in FPG, 2-h plasma glucose, A1C level and the proportion of subjects developing diabetes were assessed among 129 subjects. Results: At 12 months, A1C levels were significantly lesser (5.7% ± 0.4%) in the Vitamin D supplemented group when compared with non-Vitamin D supplemented (6.0% ± 0.3%). Similarly, FPG (97 ± 7) and 2-h plasma glucose (132 ± 16) were significantly less in Vitamin D supplemented group as compared with non-Vitamin D supplemented group (FPG = 116 ± 6 and 2-h plasma glucose = 157 ± 25) at 12 months. Nine out of 65 in non-Vitamin D supplemented and seven out of 64 in the Vitamin D supplemented group developed diabetes. Conclusions: Vitamin D supplementation in prediabetes subjects significantly lowered FPG, 2-h plasma glucose and A1C levels

Profile of leptin, adiponectin, and body fat in patients with hyperprolactinemia: Response to treatment with cabergoline

Introduction: Though hypoadiponectinemia and leptin resistance have been proposed as potential factors for weight gain in patients with hyperprolactinemia (HPL), the effects of HPL and cabergoline on these adipocyte-derived hormones are not clear. Aims of this study were (i) to assess the alterations of body fat, leptin, and adiponectin in patients with HPL (ii) effect of cabergoline treatment on these parameters. Methods: Nineteen consecutive patients with prolactinoma (median prolactin [PRL] 118.6 (interquartile range: 105.3) μg/L) and 20 controls were studied in a nonrandomized matched prospective design. The controls were age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) matched. Anthropometric data, metabolic variables, leptin, and adiponectin were studied at baseline and 3 and 6 months after cabergoline treatment. Results: Patients with prolactinoma had increased level of fasting plasma glucose (P < 0.001) as compared to age-, gender-, and BMI-matched healthy controls. Estradiol concentration of controls was higher than that of patients (P = 0.018). Patients with prolactinoma had higher levels of leptin (P = 0.027) as compared to healthy controls without a significant difference in adiponectin levels. There was a significant decrease of body weight at 3 months (P = 0.029), with a further decline at 6 months (P < 0.001) of cabergoline therapy. Furthermore, there was a significant decrement of BMI (P < 0.001), waist circumference (P = 0.003), waist-hip ratio (P = 0.03), total body fat (P = 0.003), plasma glucose (P < 0.001), leptin levels (P = 0.013), and an increase in estradiol concentration (P = 0.03) at 6 months of cabergoline treatment. Conclusion: Patients with prolactinoma have adverse metabolic profile compared to matched controls. Normalization of PRL with cabergoline corrects all the metabolic abnormalities

Effect of six-month use of oral contraceptive pills on plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 & factor VIII among women with polycystic ovary syndrome: An observational pilot study

Background & objectives: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is an endocrinopathy warranting lifelong individualized management by lifestyle and pharmacological agents mainly oral contraceptive pills (OCPs). This study was aimed to report the impact of six-month OCP use on plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) and factor VIII (FVIII) in women with PCOS. Methods: PCOS women diagnosed on the basis of Rotterdam 2003 criteria, either treated with OCPs (ethinyl estradiol-0.03 mg, levonorgestrel-0.15 mg) for a period of six months (n=40) or drug-naïve (n=42), were enrolled in this study. Blood was drawn to estimate glucose, insulin levels and lipid profile. Chemiluminescence immunoassays were used to measure hormones (LH, FSH, PRL, T4). Plasma levels of PAI-I and FVIII were measured by commercially available kits. Results: Menstrual regularity, Ferriman-Gallwey score and serum total testosterone significantly improved in the OCP group compared to drug-naïve group (P<0.01). No significant difference was observed in PAI-1 levels of the two groups; however, significant decrease in FVIII levels was observed in OCP group as compared to drug-naïve group. PAI-1 levels of OCP group correlated positively with blood glucose two hours, triglycerides and insulin two hours, while FVIII levels of OCP group correlated negatively with fasting insulin and homoeostatic model assessment-insulin resistance. Interpretation & conclusions: OCPs use has differential effect on pro-coagulant markers among women with PCOS. Well-designed, long-term, prospective, large-scale studies are prerequisite to elucidate the efficacy and safety of OCP in the treatment of PCOS

Universal salt iodization is successful in Kashmiri population as iodine deficiency no longer exists in pregnant mothers and their neonates: Data from a tertiary care hospital in North India

Introduction: Normal pregnancy results in a number of important physiological and hormonal changes that alter thyroid function. In pregnancy, the thyroid gland being subjected to physiological stress undergoes several adaptations to maintain sufficient output of thyroid hormones for both mother and fetus. Consequently, pregnant women have been found to be particularly vulnerable to iodine deficiency disorders (IDD), and compromised iodine status during pregnancy has been found to affect the thyroid function and cognition in the neonates. Objectives: Two decades after successful universal salt iodization (USI) in the country, there is scarce data on the iodine status of the pregnant women and their neonates. This is more relevant in areas like Kashmir valley part of sub-Himalayan belt, an endemic region for IDD in the past.The objective was to estimate Urinary Iodine status in pregnant women, the most vulnerable population. Materials and Methods: We studied thyroid function [free T3 (FT3), T3, free T4 (FT4), T4, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH)] and urinary iodine excretion (UIE) in the 1 st , 2 nd , and 3 rd trimesters and at early neonatal period in neonates in 81 mother-infant pairs (hypothyroid women on replacement) and compared them with 51 control mother-infant pairs (euthyroid). Results: Mean age of cases (29.42 + 3.56 years) was comparable to that of controls (29.87 + 3.37 years). The thyroid function evaluation done at baseline revealed the following: FT3 2.92 ± 0.76 versus 3.71 ± 0.54 pg/ml, T3 1.38 ± 0.37 versus 1.70 ± 0.35 ng/dl, FT4 1.22 ± 0.33 versus 1.52 ± 0.21 ng/dl, T4 9.54 ± 2.34 versus 13.55 ± 2.16 μg/dl, and TSH 7.92 ± 2.88 versus 4.14 ± 1.06 μIU/ml in cases versus controls ( P < 0.01), respectively. The 2 nd to 6 th day thyroid function of neonates born to case and control mothers revealed T3 of 1.46 ± 0.44 versus 1.48 ± 0.36 ng/dl, T4 of 12.92 ± 2.57 versus 11.76 ± 1.78 μg/dl, and TSH of 3.64 ± 1.92 versus 3.82 ± 1.45 μIU/ml, respectively. Discussion: UIE was similar (139.12 ± 20.75 vs. 143.78 ± 17.65 μg/l; P = 0.8), but TSH values were higher in cases (7.92 ± 2.88) as compared to controls (4.14 ± 1.06). Although UIE gradually declined from 1 st trimester to term, it remained in the sufficient range in both cases and controls. Thyroid function and UIE was similar in both case and control neonates. Conclusion: We conclude that pregnant Kashmiri women and their neonates are iodine sufficient, indicating successful salt iodization in the community. Large community-based studies on thyroid function, autoimmunity, malignancies, etc., are needed to see the long-term impact of iodization

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in the family members of women with polycystic ovary syndrome from North India

Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most complex and common endocrine disorder of women in reproductive years. In addition to irregular menstrual cycles, chronic anovulation and hyperandrogenism, it has many metabolic manifestations such as obesity, hyperlipidemia, hyperinsulinemia, insulin resistance, dysglycemia, increased risk of cardiovascular disease or possibly endometrial cancer. Familial clustering of PCOS in consistence with the genetic susceptibility has been described. Materials and Methods: The present study assessed the clinical, biochemical and hormonal parameters including prevalence of metabolic syndrome by two different criteria in the first- degree relatives of patients with PCOS. Results: The average age of 37 index patients was 23 ± 3.6 years, with the mean age of menarche as 13.3 ± 1.2 years. The mean age and age of menarche in mothers (n = 22) was 48.8 ± 5.1 and 13 ± 1.3 years, respectively, whereas as it was 23.5 ± 4.7 and 13.3 ± 1.2 years in sisters (n = 22), respectively. Metabolic syndrome (MS) defined by International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria was present in 10 index patients, 1 brother, 4 sisters, 17 mothers and 15 fathers while as by Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) it was in 8 index patients, 5 sisters, 16 mothers and 11 fathers. Conclusion: The presence of MS or related metabolic derangements is high in the family members of women with PCOS

Impact of Clinical Nutritional Practices and Holistic Care Interventions of Pediatric Oncology Patients: A Single Centre Experience from Jammu and Kashmir

Introduction: Nutrition is a fledgling determinant in managing and suppressing various chronic and life-threatening diseases like cancer. Nutritional status of pediatric oncology patients is particularly an important determinant of their ability to cope with the demands of cancer and its treatment, and ensure proper growth and development. Nutritional assessment and grading each child per their degree of malnutrition helps devise adequate and individualized nutritional intervention. Adequate and timely intervention can largely contribute in improving the nutritional status of the patients and therefore, overall outcome of the treatment.There are limited studies done to understand the area of impact of nutritional interventions in improving the nutritional status of children affected with cancer, therefore with this aim we conducted a study to see the impact of nutritional intervention on nutritional status. Materials and Methods: This, first of its kind study on understanding the impact of nutritional intervention on pediatric oncology patients was conducted in the medical oncology department of Sher-I-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences (SKIMS), Soura,Srinagar,India, Srinagar, from 1st May 2018 to 31st December 2019. Anthropometric measurement, demographic profiles, and etiological analysis were done and collected pre and post-intervention. 24 hours dietary recalls were collected pre and post-intervention. Food frequency tables were also put forward. Besides these, personal interviews and observation methods were used. Results: Nutritional interventions had a measurable positive outcome on the nutritional profiles of the pediatric oncology patients in SKIMS, Soura,Srinagar,India. The grades of nutritional status substantially improved from 46.4%, 24.8%, 16%, and 8% of the well-nourished, mildly malnourished, moderately malnourished, and severely malnourished, to 56.8%, 20%, 12.8%, and 4.8%, respectively, clearly indicating that with appropriate dietary advice and interventions there is a significant impact on improving the grade of malnutrition