Propagation of HF radio waves over northerly paths: measurements,simulation and systems aspects

Large deviations in the direction of arrival of ionospherically propagating radio signals from the Great Circle Path (GCP) have serious implications for the planning and operation of communications and radiolocation systems operating within the HF-band. Very large deviations are particularly prevalent in the polar and sub-auroral regions where signals often arrive at the receiver with bearings displaced from the great circle direction by up to ±100° or more. Measurements made over several paths are presented in this paper, and the principle causes of off-great circle propagation outlined. Significant progress has been made in modelling the propagation effects and work is now in hand to incorporate the results into tools to aid the planning and operation of HF radio systems operating at northerly latitudes

Near real-time input to a propagation model for nowcasting of HF communications with aircraft on polar routes

There is a need for improved techniques for nowcasting and forecasting (over several hours) HF propagation at northerly latitudes to support airlines operating over the increasingly popular trans-polar routes. In this paper the assimilation of real-time measurements into a propagation model developed by the authors is described, including ionosonde measurements and Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements to define the main parameters of the ionosphere. The effects of D-region absorption in the polar cap and auroral regions are integrated with the model through satellite measurements of the flux of energetic solar protons (>1 MeV) and the X-ray flux in the 0.1-0.8 nm band, and ground-based magnetometer measurements which form the Kp and Dst indices of geomagnetic activity. The model incorporates various features (e.g. convecting patches of enhanced plasma density) of the polar ionosphere that are, in particular, responsible for off-great circle propagation and lead to propagation at times and frequencies not expected from on-great circle propagation alone. The model development is supported by the collection of HF propagation measurements over several paths within the polar cap, crossing the auroral oval, and along the mid-latitude trough

Developments in an HF Nowcasting Model for Trans-Polar Airline Routes

HF communications can be difficult in the polar regions since they are strongly influenced by space weather events. Airline communications within the polar regions rely on HF communications and improved nowcasting and forecasting techniques in support of this are now required. Previous work has demonstrated that ray tracing through a realistic, historical ionosphere provides signal coverage in good agreement with measurements. This paper presents an approach to providing a real-time ionospheric model by assimilating TEC measurements and validates it against observations from ionosondes

Progress towards a propagation prediction service for HF communications with aircraft on trans-polar routes

Commercial airlines began operations over polar routes in 1999 with a small number of proving flights. By 2014 the number had increased to in excess of 12,000 flights per year, and further increases are expected. For safe operations, the aircraft have to be able to communicate with air traffic control centres at all times. This is achieved by VHF links whilst within range of the widespread network of ground stations, and is by HF radio in remote areas such as the Polar regions, the North Atlantic and Pacific where VHF ground infrastructure does not exist. Furthermore, the Russian side of the pole only has HF capability. Researchers at the University of Leicester and at Lancaster University have developed various models (outlined below) that can be employed in HF radio propagation predictions. It is anticipated that these models will form the basis of an HF forecasting and nowcasting service for the airline industry. Propagation coverage predictions make use of numerical ray tracing to estimate the ray paths through a model ionosphere. Initially, a background ionospheric model is produced, which is then perturbed to include the various ionospheric features prevalent at high latitudes (in particular patches, arcs, auroral zone irregularities and the mid-latitude trough) that significantly affect the propagation of the radio signals. The approach that we are currently adopting is to start with the IRI and to perturb this based on measurements made near to the time and area of interest to form the basis of the background ionospheric model. This is then further perturbed to include features such as the convecting patches, the parameters of which may also be informed by measurements. A significant problem is the high variability of the high latitude ionosphere, and the relative scarcity of real-time measurements over the region. Real time measurements that we will use as the basis for perturbing the IRI include ionosonde soundings from, e.g. the GIRO database, and TEC measurements from the IGS network. Real-time modelling of HF radiowave absorption in the D-region ionosphere is also included. The geostationary GOES satellites provide real-time information on X-ray flux (causing shortwave fadeout during solar flares) and the flux of precipitating energetic protons which correlates strongly with Polar Cap Absorption (PCA). Real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements from the ACE or DSCOVR spacecraft provide geomagnetic index estimates used to model the location of both auroral absorption (on a probabilistic basis) and the proton rigidity cutoff boundary that defines the latitudinal extent of PCA during solar proton events (SPE). Empirical climatological models have been uniquely adapted to assimilate recent measurements of cosmic noise absorption (at 30 MHz) from a large array of riometers in Canada and Scandinavia. The model parameters are continuously optimised and updated to account for regional and temporal variations in ionospheric composition (and hence HF absorption rate (dB/km)) that can change significantly during the course of an SPE, for example. Real-time optimisation during SPE can also improve estimates of the proton rigidity cutoff and improve the modelled ionospheric response function absorption vs. zenith angle) at twilight

Developments in HF Propagation Predictions to Support Communications with Aircraft on Trans-polar Routes

Commercial airlines began operations over polar routes in 1999 with a small number of proving flights. By 2014 the number had increased to in excess of 12,000 flights per year, and further increases are expected. For safe operations, the aircraft have to be able to communicate with air traffic control centres at all times. This is achieved by VHF links whilst within range of the widespread network of ground stations, and by HF radio in remote areas such as the Polar regions, the North Atlantic and Pacific where VHF ground infrastructure does not exist. Furthermore, the Russian side of the pole only has HF capability. This has created a demand for improved HF nowcasting and forecasting procedures to support the polar operations, which are the subject of this paper

Aspects of HF radio propagation

The propagation characteristics of radio signals are important parameters to consider when designing and operating radio systems. From the point of view Working Group 2 of the COST 296 Action, interest lies with effects associated with propagation via the ionosphere of signals within the HF band. Several aspects are covered in this paper: a) The directions of arrival and times of flight of signals received over a path oriented along the trough have been examined and several types of propagation effects identified. Of particular note, combining the HF observations with satellite measurements has identified the presence of irregularities within the floor of the trough that result in propagation displaced from the great circle direction. An understanding of the propagation effects that result in deviations of the signal path from the great circle direction are of particular relevance to the operation of HF radiolocation systems. b) Inclusion of the results from the above mentioned measurements into a propagation model of the northerly ionosphere (i.e. those regions of the ionosphere located poleward of, and including, the mid-latitude trough)and the use of this model to predict the coverage expected from transmitters where the signals impinge on the northerly ionosphere. c) Development of inversion techniques enabling backscatter ionograms obtained by an HF radar to be used to estimate the ionospheric electron density profile. This development facilitates the operation of over the horizon HF radars by enhancing the frequency management aspects of the systems. d) Various propagation prediction techniques have been tested against measurements made over the trough path mentioned above, and also over a long-range path between Cyprus and the UK. e) The effect of changes in the levels of ionospheric disturbances on the operational availability at various data throughput rates has been examined for the trough path mentioned earlier. The topics covered in this paper are necessarily brief, and the reader is referred to full papers referenced herein on individual aspects

Predictions and observations of HF radio propagation in the northerly ionosphere:the effect of the solar flares and a weak CME in early January 2014

We have previously reported on a significant new multi-national project to provide improved predictions and forecasts of HF radio propagation for commercial aircraft operating on trans-polar routes. In these regions, there are limited or no VHF air-traffic control facilities and geostationary satellites are below the horizon. Therefore HF radio remains important in maintaining communications with the aircraft at all times. Space weather disturbances can have a range of effects on the ionosphere and hence HF radio propagation - particularly in the polar cap. While severe space weather effects can lead to a total loss of communications (i.e. radio blackout), less intense events can still cause significant disruption. In this paper we will present the effect of a series of M and X class solar flares and a relatively weak CME on HF radio performance from 6 to 13 January 2014. This is an interesting interval from the point of view of HF radio propagation because while the solar effects on the ionosphere are significant, except for an interval of approximately 12 hours duration, they are not so intense as to produce a complete radio blackout on all paths. Observations of the signal-to-noise ratio, direction of arrival, and time of flight of HF radio signals on six paths (one entirely within the polar cap, three trans-auroral, and two sub-auroral) will be presented together with riometer measurements of the ionospheric absorption. Global maps of D-region absorption (D-region absorption prediction, DRAP) inferred from satellite measurements of the solar wind parameters will be compared with the HF and riometer observations. In addition, a ray-tracing model using a realistic background ionosphere and including localised features found in the ionospheric polar cap (e.g. polar patches and arcs) will be used to model the expected and observed HF radio propagation characteristics