Multinational development and validation of an early prediction model for delirium in ICU patients

Rationale Delirium incidence in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is high and associated with poor outcome. Identification of high-risk patients may facilitate its prevention. Purpose To develop and validate a model based on data available at ICU admission to predict delirium development during a patient’s complete ICU stay and to determine the predictive value of this model in relation to the time of delirium development. Methods Prospective cohort study in 13 ICUs from seven countries. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop the early prediction (E-PRE-DELIRIC) model on data of the first two-thirds and validated on data of the last one-third of the patients from every participating ICU. Results In total, 2914 patients were included. Delirium incidence was 23.6 %. The E-PRE-DELIRIC model consists of nine predictors assessed at ICU admission: age, history of cognitive impairment, history of alcohol abuse, blood urea nitrogen, admission category, urgent admission, mean arterial blood pressure, use of corticosteroids, and respiratory failure. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.76 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.77] in the development dataset and 0.75 (95 % CI 0.71–0.79) in the validation dataset. The model was well calibrated. AUROC increased from 0.70 (95 % CI 0.67–0.74), for delirium that developed 6 days. Conclusion Patients’ delirium risk for the complete ICU length of stay can be predicted at admission using the E-PRE-DELIRIC model, allowing early preventive interventions aimed to reduce incidence and severity of ICU delirium

Heart rate variability in critical care medicine: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Heart rate variability (HRV) has been used to assess cardiac autonomic activity in critically ill patients, driven by translational and biomarker research agendas. Several clinical and technical factors can interfere with the measurement and/or interpretation of HRV. We systematically evaluated how HRV parameters are acquired/processed in critical care medicine. METHODS: PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (1996-2016) were searched for cohort or case-control clinical studies of adult (>18 years) critically ill patients using heart variability analysis. Duplicate independent review and data abstraction. Study quality was assessed using two independent approaches: Newcastle-Ottowa scale and Downs and Black instrument. Conduct of studies was assessed in three categories: (1) study design and objectives, (2) procedures for measurement, processing and reporting of HRV, and (3) reporting of relevant confounding factors. RESULTS: Our search identified 31/271 eligible studies that enrolled 2090 critically ill patients. A minority of studies (15; 48%) reported both frequency and time domain HRV data, with non-normally distributed, wide ranges of values that were indistinguishable from other (non-critically ill) disease states. Significant heterogeneity in HRV measurement protocols was observed between studies; lack of adjustment for various confounders known to affect cardiac autonomic regulation was common. Comparator groups were often omitted (n = 12; 39%). This precluded meaningful meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Marked differences in methodology prevent meaningful comparisons of HRV parameters between studies. A standardised set of consensus criteria relevant to critical care medicine are required to exploit advances in translational autonomic physiology.GLA is supported by a British Journal of Anaesthesia and Royal College of Anaesthetists Basic Science fellowship, British Oxygen Company grant from the Royal College of Anaesthetists and British Heart Foundation programme grant (RG/14/4/3073