Spatiotemporal variability and drivers of <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> and air–sea CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes in the California Current System: an eddy-resolving modeling study

We quantify the CO2 source/sink nature of the California Current System (CalCS) and determine the drivers and processes behind the mean and spatiotemporal variability of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the surface ocean. To this end, we analyze eddy-resolving, climatological simulations of a coupled physical–biogeochemical oceanic model on the basis of the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). In the annual mean, the entire CalCS within 800 km of the coast and from ∼33° N to 46° N is essentially neutral with regard to atmospheric CO2: the model simulates an integrated uptake flux of −0.9 ± 3.6 Tg C yr−1, corresponding to an average flux density of −0.05 ± 0.20 mol C m−2 yr−1. This near zero flux is a consequence of an almost complete regional compensation between (i) strong outgassing in the nearshore region (first 100 km) that brings waters with high concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the surface and (ii) and a weaker, but more widespread uptake flux in the offshore region due to an intense biological reduction of this DIC, driven by the nutrients that are upwelled together with the DIC. The air–sea CO2 fluxes vary substantially in time, both on seasonal and sub-seasonal timescales, largely driven by variations in surface ocean pCO2. Most of the variability in pCO2 is associated with the seasonal cycle, with the exception of the nearshore region, where sub-seasonal variations driven by mesoscale processes dominate. In the regions offshore of 100 km, changes in surface temperature are the main driver, while in the nearshore region, changes in surface temperature, as well as anomalies in DIC and alkalinity (Alk) owing to changes in circulation, biological productivity and air–sea CO2 fluxes dominate. The prevalence of eddy-driven variability in the nearshore 100 km leads to a complex spatiotemporal mosaic of surface ocean pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes that require a substantial observational effort to determine the source/sink nature of this region reliably

Seasonal and mesoscale variability of oceanic transport of anthropogenic CO₂

Estimates of the ocean's large-scale transport of anthropogenic CO₂ are based on one-time hydrographic sections, but the temporal variability of this transport has not been investigated. The aim of this study is to evaluate how the seasonal and mesoscale variability affect data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO₂ transport. To diagnose this variability, we made a global anthropogenic CO₂ simulation using an eddy-permitting version of the coupled ocean sea-ice model ORCA-LIM. As for heat transport, the seasonally varying transport of anthropogenic CO₂ is largest within 20° of the equator and shows secondary maxima in the subtropics. Ekman transport generally drives most of the seasonal variability, but the contribution of the vertical shear becomes important near the equator and in the Southern Ocean. Mesoscale variabilty contributes to the annual-mean transport of both heat and anthropogenic CO₂ with strong poleward transport in the Southern Ocean and equatorward transport in the tropics. This "rectified" eddy transport is largely baroclinic in the tropics and barotropic in the Southern Ocean due to a larger contribution from standing eddies. Our analysis revealed that most previous hydrographic estimates of meridional transport of anthropogenic CO₂ are severely biased because they neglect temporal fluctuations due to non-Ekman velocity variations. In each of the three major ocean basins, this bias is largest near the equator and in the high southern latitudes. In the subtropical North Atlantic, where most of the hydrographic-based estimates have been focused, this uncertainty represents up to 20% and 30% of total meridional transport of heat and CO₂. Generally though, outside the tropics and Southern Ocean, there are only small variations in meridional transport due to seasonal variations in tracer fields and time variations in eddy transport. For the North Atlantic, eddy variability accounts for up to 10% and 15% of the total transport of heat and CO₂. This component is not accounted for in coarse-resolution hydrographic surveys

Major impact of dust deposition on the productivity of the Arabian Sea

In the Arabian Sea (AS), spatiotemporal nutrient limitation patterns of primary production and the possible role of nutrient inputs from the atmosphere are still not well understood. Using a biogeochemical model forced by modeled aerosol deposition, we show that without high atmospheric iron inputs through dust deposition during the summer monsoon, primary production over the AS would be reduced by half. Atmospheric iron deposition also supports most of the nitrogen fixation over the AS. However, our ocean biogeochemistry modeling results suggest that dinitrogen fixation constitutes a negligible fraction of the primary production. Finally, we show that atmospheric inputs of nitrogen, mostly from anthropogenic activities in India, have a negligible impact on primary production

Biogeographic classification of the Caspian Sea

Like other inland seas, the Caspian Sea (CS) has been influenced by climate change and anthropogenic disturbance during recent decades, yet the scientific understanding of this water body remains poor. In this study, an eco-geographical classification of the CS based on physical information derived from space and in situ data is developed and tested against a set of biological observations. We used a two-step classification procedure, consisting of (i) a data reduction with self-organizing maps (SOMs) and (ii) a synthesis of the most relevant features into a reduced number of marine ecoregions using the hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) method. From an initial set of 12 potential physical variables, 6 independent variables were selected for the classification algorithm, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), bathymetry, sea ice, seasonal variation of sea surface salinity (DSSS), total suspended matter (TSM) and its seasonal variation (DTSM). The classification results reveal a robust separation between the northern and the middle/southern basins as well as a separation of the shallow nearshore waters from those offshore. The observed patterns in ecoregions can be attributed to differences in climate and geochemical factors such as distance from river, water depth and currents. A comparison of the annual and monthly mean Chl <i>a</i> concentrations between the different ecoregions shows significant differences (one-way ANOVA, <i>P</i> < 0.05). In particular, we found differences in phytoplankton phenology, with differences in the date of bloom initiation, its duration and amplitude between ecoregions. A first qualitative evaluation of differences in community composition based on recorded presence–absence patterns of 25 different species of plankton, fish and benthic invertebrate also confirms the relevance of the ecoregions as proxies for habitats with common biological characteristics

The changing carbon cycle of the coastal ocean

The carbon cycle of the coastal ocean is a dynamic component of the global carbon budget. But the diverse sources and sinks of carbon and their complex interactions in these waters remain poorly understood. Here we discuss the sources, exchanges and fates of carbon in the coastal ocean and how anthropogenic activities have altered the carbon cycle. Recent evidence suggests that the coastal ocean may have become a net sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide during post-industrial times. Continued human pressures in coastal zones will probably have an important impact on the future evolution of the coastal ocean's carbon budget

A comparative study of biological production in eastern boundary upwelling systems using an artificial neural network

Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are highly productive ocean regions. Yet, substantial differences in net primary production (NPP) exist within and between these systems for reasons that are still not fully understood. Here, we explore the leading physical processes and environmental factors controlling NPP in EBUS through a comparative study of the California, Canary, Benguela, and Humboldt Current systems. The NPP drivers are identified with the aid of an artificial neural network analysis based on self-organizing-maps (SOM). Our results suggest that in addition to the expected NPP enhancing effect of stronger equatorward alongshore wind, three factors have an inhibiting effect: (1) strong eddy activity, (2) narrow continental shelf, and (3) deep mixed layer. The co-variability of these 4 drivers defines in the context of the SOM a continuum of 100 patterns of NPP regimes in EBUS. These are grouped into 4 distinct classes using a Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC) method. Our objective classification of EBUS reveals important variations of NPP regimes within each of the four EBUS, particularly in the Canary and Benguela Current systems. Our results show that the Atlantic EBUS are generally more productive and more sensitive to upwelling favorable winds because of weaker factors inhibiting NPP. Perturbations of alongshore winds associated with climate change may therefore lead to contrasting biological responses in the Atlantic and the Pacific EBUS

Intensification and deepening of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone in response to increase in Indian monsoon wind intensity

The decline in oxygen supply to the ocean associated with global warming is expected to expand oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). This global trend can be attenuated or amplified by regional processes. In the Arabian Sea, the world's thickest OMZ is highly vulnerable to changes in the Indian monsoon wind. Evidence from paleorecords and future climate projections indicates strong variations of the Indian monsoon wind intensity over climatic timescales. Yet, the response of the OMZ to these wind changes remains poorly understood and its amplitude and timescale unexplored. Here, we investigate the impacts of perturbations in Indian monsoon wind intensity (from 50 to +50 %) on the size and intensity of the Arabian Sea OMZ, and examine the biogeochemical and ecological implications of these changes. To this end, we conducted a series of eddy-resolving simulations of the Arabian Sea using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled to a nitrogen-based nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model that includes a representation of the O-2 cycle. We show that the Arabian Sea productivity increases and its OMZ expands and deepens in response to monsoon wind intensification. These responses are dominated by the perturbation of the summer monsoon wind, whereas the changes in the winter monsoon wind play a secondary role. While the productivity responds quickly and nearly linearly to wind increase (i.e., on a timescale of years), the OMZ response is much slower (i.e., a timescale of decades). Our analysis reveals that the OMZ expansion at depth is driven by increased oxygen biological consumption, whereas its surface weakening is induced by increased ventilation. The enhanced ventilation favors episodic intrusions of oxic waters in the lower epipelagic zone (100-200 m) of the western and central Arabian Sea, leading to intermittent expansions of marine habitats and a more frequent alternation of hypoxic and oxic conditions there. The increased productivity and deepening of the OMZ also lead to a strong intensification of denitrification at depth, resulting in a substantial amplification of fixed nitrogen depletion in the Arabian Sea. We conclude that changes in the Indian monsoon can affect, on longer timescales, the large-scale biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen and carbon, with a positive feedback on climate change in the case of stronger winds. Additional potential changes in large-scale ocean ventilation and stratification may affect the sensitivity of the Arabian Sea OMZ to monsoon intensification

Intensification and deepening of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone in response to increase in Indian monsoon wind intensity

The decline in oxygen supply to the ocean associated with global warming is expected to expand oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). This global trend can be attenuated or amplified by regional processes. In the Arabian Sea, the world's thickest OMZ is highly vulnerable to changes in the Indian monsoon wind. Evidence from paleo-records and future climate projections indicates strong variations of the Indian monsoon wind intensity over climatic timescales. Yet, the response of the OMZ to these wind changes remains poorly understood and its amplitude and timescale unexplored. Here, we investigate the impacts of perturbations in Indian monsoon wind intensity (from −50 to +50 %) on the size and intensity of the Arabian Sea OMZ, and examine the biogeochemical and ecological implications of these changes. To this end, we conducted a series of eddy-resolving simulations of the Arabian Sea using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) coupled to a nitrogen-based nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (NPZD) ecosystem model that includes a representation of the O2 cycle. We show that the Arabian Sea productivity increases and its OMZ expands and deepens in response to monsoon wind intensification. These responses are dominated by the perturbation of the summer monsoon wind, whereas the changes in the winter monsoon wind play a secondary role. While the productivity responds quickly and nearly linearly to wind increase (i.e., on a timescale of years), the OMZ response is much slower (i.e., a timescale of decades). Our analysis reveals that the OMZ expansion at depth is driven by increased oxygen biological consumption, whereas its surface weakening is induced by increased ventilation. The enhanced ventilation favors episodic intrusions of oxic waters in the lower epipelagic zone (100–200 m) of the western and central Arabian Sea, leading to intermittent expansions of marine habitats and a more frequent alternation of hypoxic and oxic conditions there. The increased productivity and deepening of the OMZ also lead to a strong intensification of denitrification at depth, resulting in a substantial amplification of fixed nitrogen depletion in the Arabian Sea. We conclude that changes in the Indian monsoon can affect, on longer timescales, the large-scale biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen and carbon, with a positive feedback on climate change in the case of stronger winds. Additional potential changes in large-scale ocean ventilation and stratification may affect the sensitivity of the Arabian Sea OMZ to monsoon intensification