Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts often resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM with functional factor loading curves. This results in a model capable of forecasting functional time series. Further, in the yield curve context we show that the model retains economic interpretation. Model estimation is achieved through an expectation-maximization algorithm, where the time series parameters and factor loading curves are simultaneously estimated in a single step. Efficient computing is implemented and a data-driven smoothing parameter is nicely incorporated. We show that our model performs very well on forecasting actual yield data compared with existing approaches, especially in regard to profit-based assessment for an innovative trading exercise. We further illustrate the viability of our model to applications outside of yield forecasting.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOAS551 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Border Detection on Digitized Skin Tumor Images

A radial search technique is presented for detecting skin tumor borders in clinical dermatology images. First, it includes two rounds of radial search based on the same tumor center. The first-round search is independent, and the second-round search is knowledge-based tracking. Then a rescan with a new center is used to solve the blind-spot problem. The algorithm is tested on model images with excellent performance, and on 300 real clinical images with a satisfactory resul

Envisioning health equity for American Indian/Alaska Natives: a unique HIT opportunity

The Indian Health Service provides care to remote and under-resourced communities in the United States. American Indian/Alaska Native patients have some of the highest morbidity and mortality among any ethnic group in the United States. Starting in the 1980s, the IHS implemented the Resource and Patient Management System health information technology (HIT) platform to improve efficiency and quality to address these disparities. The IHS is currently assessing the Resource and Patient Management System to ensure that changing health information needs are met. HIT assessments have traditionally focused on cost, reimbursement opportunities, infrastructure, required or desired functionality, and the ability to meet provider needs. Little information exists on frameworks that assess HIT legacy systems to determine solutions for an integrated rural healthcare system whose end goal is health equity. This search for a next-generation HIT solution for a historically underserved population presents a unique opportunity to envision and redefine HIT that supports health equity as its core mission

The IL-4/STAT6/PPARγ signaling axis is driving the expansion of the RXR heterodimer cistrome, providing complex ligand responsiveness in macrophages

Retinoid X receptor (RXR) is an obligate heterodimeric partner of several nuclear receptors (NRs), and as such a central component of NR signaling regulating the immune and metabolic phenotype of macrophages. Importantly, the binding motifs of RXR heterodimers are enriched in the tissue-selective open chromatin regions of resident macrophages, suggesting roles in subtype specification. Recent genome-wide studies revealed that RXR binds to thousands of sites in the genome, but the mechanistic details how the cistrome is established and serves ligand-induced transcriptional activity remained elusive. Here we show that IL-4-mediated macrophage plasticity results in a greatly extended RXR cistrome via both direct and indirect actions of the transcription factor STAT6. Activation of STAT6 leads to chromatin remodeling and RXR recruitment to de novo enhancers. In addition, STAT6 triggers a secondary transcription factor wave, including PPARγ. PPARγ appears to be indispensable for the development of RXR-bound de novo enhancers, whose activities can be modulated by the ligands of the PPARγ:RXR heterodimer conferring ligand selective cellular responses. Collectively, these data reveal the mechanisms leading to the dynamic extension of the RXR cistrome and identify the lipid-sensing enhancer sets responsible for the appearance of ligand-preferred gene signatures in alternatively polarized macrophages

Landau damping in thin films irradiated by a strong laser field

The rate of linear collisionless damping (Landau damping) in a classical electron gas confined to a heated ionized thin film is calculated. The general expression for the imaginary part of the dielectric tensor in terms of the parameters of the single-particle self-consistent electron potential is obtained. For the case of a deep rectangular well, it is explicitly calculated as a function of the electron temperature in the two limiting cases of specular and diffuse reflection of the electrons from the boundary of the self-consistent potential. For realistic experimental parameters, the contribution of Landau damping to the heating of the electron subsystem is estimated. It is shown that for films with a thickness below about 100 nm and for moderate laser intensities it may be comparable with or even dominate over electron-ion collisions and inner ionization.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figure

The combined diabetes and renal control trial (C-DIRECT) - a feasibility randomised controlled trial to evaluate outcomes in multi-morbid patients with diabetes and on dialysis using a mixed methods approach

Background: This cluster randomised controlled trial set out to investigate the feasibility and acceptability of the “Combined Diabetes and Renal Control Trial” (C-DIRECT) intervention, a nurse-led intervention based on motivational interviewing and self-management in patients with coexisting end stage renal diseases and diabetes mellitus (DM ESRD). Its efficacy to improve glycaemic control, as well as psychosocial and self-care outcomes were also evaluated as secondary outcomes. Methods: An assessor-blinded, clustered randomised-controlled trial was conducted with 44 haemodialysis patients with DM ESRD and ≥ 8% glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), in dialysis centres across Singapore. Patients were randomised according to dialysis shifts. 20 patients were assigned to intervention and 24 were in usual care. The C-DIRECT intervention consisted of three weekly chair-side sessions delivered by diabetes specialist nurses. Data on recruitment, randomisation, and retention, and secondary outcomes such as clinical endpoints, emotional distress, adherence, and self-management skills measures were obtained at baseline and at 12 weeks follow-up. A qualitative evaluation using interviews was conducted at the end of the trial. Results: Of the 44 recruited at baseline, 42 patients were evaluated at follow-up. One patient died, and one discontinued the study due to deteriorating health. Recruitment, retention, and acceptability rates of C-DIRECT were generally satisfactory HbA1c levels decreased in both groups, but C-DIRECT had more participants with HbA1c < 8% at follow up compared to usual care. Significant improvements in role limitations due to physical health were noted for C-DIRECT whereas levels remained stable in usual care. No statistically significant differences between groups were observed for other clinical markers and other patient-reported outcomes. There were no adverse effects. Conclusions: The trial demonstrated satisfactory feasibility. A brief intervention delivered on bedside as part of routine dialysis care showed some benefits in glycaemic control and on QOL domain compared with usual care, although no effect was observed in other secondary outcomes. Further research is needed to design and assess interventions to promote diabetes self-management in socially vulnerable patients

Sleep disorders, depressive symptoms and health-related quality of life-a cross-sectional comparison between kidney transplant recipients and waitlisted patients on maintenance dialysis

BACKGROUND: Kidney transplantation is believed to improve health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT). Recent studies suggested that the observed difference in HRQoL between kidney transplant recipients (Tx) vs patients treated with dialysis may reflect differences in patient characteristics. We tested if Tx patients have better HRQoL compared to waitlisted (WL) patients treated with dialysis after extensive adjustment for covariables. METHODS: Eight hundred and eighty-eight prevalent Tx patients followed at a single outpatient transplant clinic and 187 WL patients treated with maintenance dialysis in nine dialysis centres were enrolled in this observational cross-sectional study. Data about socio-demographic and clinical parameters, self-reported depressive symptoms and the most frequent sleep disorders assessed by self-reported questionnaires were collected at enrollment. HRQoL was assessed by the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Questionnaire. RESULTS: Patient characteristics were similar in the Tx vs WL groups: the proportion of males (58 vs 60%), mean +/- SD age (49 +/- 13 vs 49 +/- 12) and proportion of diabetics (17 vs 18%), respectively, were all similar. Tx patients had significantly better HRQoL scores compared to the WL group both in generic (Physical function, General health perceptions, Energy/fatigue, Emotional well-being) and in kidney disease-specific domains (Symptoms/problems, Effect- and Burden of kidney disease and Sleep). In multivariate regression models adjusting for clinical and socio-demographic characteristics, sleep disorders and depressive symptoms, the modality of RRT (WL vs Tx) remained independently associated with three (General health perceptions, Effect- and Burden of kidney disease) out of the eight HRQoL dimensions analysed. CONCLUSIONS: Kidney Tx recipients have significantly better HRQoL compared to WL dialysis patients in some, but not all, dimensions of quality of life after accounting for differences in patient characteristics. Utilizing multidimensional disease-specific questionnaires will allow better understanding of treatment, disease and patient-related factors potentially affecting quality of life in patients with chronic medical conditions

Assessing fitness-to-practice of overseas-trained health practitioners by Australian registration & accreditation bodies

Assessment of fitness-to-practice of health professionals trained overseas and who wish to practice in Australia is undertaken by a range of organisations. These organisations conduct assessments using a range of methods. However there is very little published about how these organisations conduct their assessments. The purpose of the current paper is to investigate the methods of assessment used by these organisations and the issues associated with conducting these assessments

Effective Scenario of Loop Quantum Cosmology

Semiclassical states in isotropic loop quantum cosmology are employed to show that the improved dynamics has the correct classical limit. The effective Hamiltonian for the quantum cosmological model with a massless scalar field is thus obtained, which incorporates also the next to leading order quantum corrections. The possibility that the higher order correction terms may lead to significant departure from the leading order effective scenario is revealed. If the semiclassicality of the model is maintained in the large scale limit, there are great possibilities for $k=0$ Friedmann expanding universe to undergo a collapse in the future due to the quantum gravity effect. Thus the quantum bounce and collapse may contribute a cyclic universe in the new scenario.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures; version published in PR

Z' signals in polarised top-antitop final states

We study the sensitivity of top-antitop samples produced at all energy stages of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) to the nature of an underlying Z' boson, in presence of full tree level standard model (SM) background effects and relative interferences. We concentrate on differential mass spectra as well as both spatial and spin asymmetries thereby demonstrating that exploiting combinations of these observables will enable one to distinguish between sequential Z's and those pertaining to Left-Right symmetric models as well as E6 inspired ones, assuming realistic final state reconstruction efficiencies and error estimates.Comment: 21 pages, 6 colour figures, 10 table