Predicting pilot error on the flight deck: Validation of a new methodology and a multiple methods and analysts approach to enhancing error prediction sensitivity

The Human Error Template (HET) is a recently developed methodology for predicting designed induced pilot error. This article describes a validation study undertaken to compare the performance of HET against three contemporary Human Error Identification (HEI) approaches when used to predict pilot errors for an approach and landing task and also to compare individual analyst error predictions to an approach to enhancing error prediction sensitivity: the multiple analysts and methods approach, whereby multiple analyst predictions using a range of HEI technique are pooled. The findings indicate that, of the four methodologies used in isolation, analysts using the HET methodology offered the most accurate error predictions, and also that the multiple analysts and methods approach was more successful overall in terms of error prediction sensitivity than the three other methods but not the HET approach. The results suggest that when predicting design induced error, it is appropriate to use domain specific approaches and also a toolkit of different HEI approaches and multiple analysts in order to heighten error prediction sensitivity

A physical model for low-frequency electromagnetic induction in the near field based on direct interaction between transmitter and receiver electrons

A physical model of electromagnetic induction is developed which relates directly the forces between electrons in the transmitter and receiver windings of concentric coaxial finite coils in the near-field region. By applying the principle of superposition, the contributions from accelerating electrons in successive current loops are summed, allowing the peak-induced voltage in the receiver to be accurately predicted. Results show good agreement between theory and experiment for various receivers of different radii up to five times that of the transmitter. The limitations of the linear theory of electromagnetic induction are discussed in terms of the non-uniform current distribution caused by the skin effect. In particular, the explanation in terms of electromagnetic energy and Poynting’s theorem is contrasted with a more direct explanation based on variable filament induction across the conductor cross section. As the direct physical model developed herein deals only with forces between discrete current elements, it can be readily adapted to suit different coil geometries and is widely applicable in various fields of research such as near-field communications, antenna design, wireless power transfer, sensor applications and beyond

A standardised sampling protocol for robust assessment of reach-scale fish community diversity in wadeable New Zealand streams

The New Zealand fish fauna contains species that are affected not only by river system connectivity, but also by catchment and local-scale changes in landcover, water quality and habitat quality. Consequently, native fish have potential as multi-scale bioindicators of human pressure on stream ecosystems, yet no standardised, repeatable and scientifically defensible methods currently exist for effectively quantifying their abundance or diversity in New Zealand stream reaches. Here we report on the testing of a back-pack electrofishing method, modified from that used by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, on a wide variety of wadeable stream reaches throughout New Zealand. Seventy-three first- to third-order stream reaches were fished with a single pass over 150-345 m length. Time taken to sample a reach using single-pass electrofishing ranged from 1-8 h. Species accumulation curves indicated that, irrespective of location, continuous sampling of 150 stream metres is required to accurately describe reach-scale fish species richness using this approach. Additional species detection beyond 150 m was rare (<10%) with a single additional species detected at only two out of the 17 reaches sampled beyond this distance. A positive relationship was also evident between species detection and area fished, although stream length rather than area appeared to be the better predictor. The method tested provides a standardised and repeatable approach for regional and/or national reporting on the state of New Zealand's freshwater fish communities and trends in richness and abundance over time

Violent video games and morality: a meta-ethical approach

This paper considers what it is about violent video games that leads one reasonably minded person to declare "That is immoral" while another denies it. Three interpretations of video game content a re discussed: reductionist, narrow, and broad. It is argued that a broad interpretation is required for a moral objection to be justified. It is further argued that understanding the meaning of moral utterances – like "x is immoral" – is important to an understanding of why there is a lack of moral consensus when it comes to the content of violent video games. Constructive ecumenical expressivism is presented as a means of explaining what it is that we are doing when we make moral pronouncements and why, when it comes to video game content, differing moral attitudes abound. Constructive ecumenical expressivism is also presented as a means of illuminating what would be required for moral consensus to be achieved

Methylated DNA recognition during the reversal of epigenetic silencing is regulated by cysteine and cerine residues in the Epstein-Barr Virus lytic switch protein

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) causes infectious mononucleosis and is associated with various malignancies, including Burkitt's lymphoma and nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Like all herpesviruses, the EBV life cycle alternates between latency and lytic replication. During latency, the viral genome is largely silenced by host-driven methylation of CpG motifs and, in the switch to the lytic cycle, this epigenetic silencing is overturned. A key event is the activation of the viral BRLF1 gene by the immediate-early protein Zta. Zta is a bZIP transcription factor that preferentially binds to specific response elements (ZREs) in the BRLF1 promoter (Rp) when these elements are methylated. Zta's ability to trigger lytic cycle activation is severely compromised when a cysteine residue in its bZIP domain is mutated to serine (C189S), but the molecular basis for this effect is unknown. Here we show that the C189S mutant is defective for activating Rp in a Burkitt's lymphoma cell line. The mutant is compromised both in vitro and in vivo for binding two methylated ZREs in Rp (ZRE2 and ZRE3), although the effect is striking only for ZRE3. Molecular modeling of Zta bound to methylated ZRE3, together with biochemical data, indicate that C189 directly contacts one of the two methyl cytosines within a specific CpG motif. The motif's second methyl cytosine (on the complementary DNA strand) is predicted to contact S186, a residue known to regulate methyl-ZRE recognition. Our results suggest that C189 regulates the enhanced interaction of Zta with methylated DNA in overturning the epigenetic control of viral latency. As C189 is conserved in many bZIP proteins, the selectivity of Zta for methylated DNA may be a paradigm for a more general phenomenon

Variation in the observed effect of Xpert MTB/RIF testing for tuberculosis on mortality: A systematic review and analysis of trial design considerations [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]

Background: Most studies evaluating the effect of Xpert MTB/RIF testing for tuberculosis (TB) concluded that it did not reduce overall mortality compared to usual care. We conducted a systematic review to assess whether key study design and execution features contributed to earlier identification of patients with TB and decreased pre-treatment loss to follow-up, thereby reducing the potential impact of Xpert MTB/RIF testing. / Methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and Scopus for literature published from 1st January 2009 to February 2019. We included all primary intervention studies that had evaluated the effect of Xpert MTB/RIF on mortality compared to usual care in participants with presumptive pulmonary TB. We critically reviewed features of included studies across: Study setting and context, Study population, Participant recruitment and enrolment, Study procedures, and Study follow-up. / Results: We included seven randomised and one non-randomised study. All included studies demonstrated relative reductions in overall mortality in the Xpert MTB/RIF arm ranging from 6% to 40%. However, mortality reduction was reported to be statistically significant in two studies. Study features that could explain the lack of observed effect on mortality included: the higher quality of care at study sites; inclusion of patients with a higher pre-test probability of TB leading to higher than expected empirical rates; performance of additional diagnostic testing not done in usual care leading to increased TB diagnosis or empiric treatment initiation; the recruitment of participants likely to return for follow-up; and involvement of study staff in ensuring adherence with care and follow-up. / Conclusion: Most studies of Xpert MTB/RIF were designed and conducted in a manner that resulted in more patients being diagnosed and treated for TB, minimising the potential difference in mortality Xpert MTB/RIF testing could have achieved compared to usual care

Why alternative teenagers self-harm: exploring the link between non-suicidal self-injury, attempted suicide and adolescent identity

Background: The term ‘self-harm’ encompasses both attempted suicide and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI). Specific adolescent subpopulations such as ethnic or sexual minorities, and more controversially, those who identify as ‘Alternative’ (Goth, Emo) have been proposed as being more likely to self-harm, while other groups such as ‘Jocks’ are linked with protective coping behaviours (for example exercise). NSSI has autonomic (it reduces negative emotions) and social (it communicates distress or facilitates group ‘bonding’) functions. This study explores the links between such aspects of self-harm, primarily NSSI, and youth subculture.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Methods: An anonymous survey was carried out of 452 15 year old German school students. Measures included: identification with different youth cultures, i.e. Alternative (Goth, Emo, Punk), Nerd (academic) or Jock (athletic); social background, e.g. socioeconomic status; and experience of victimisation. Self-harm (suicide and NSSI) was assessed using Self-harm Behavior Questionnaire and the Functional Assessment of Self-Mutilation (FASM).&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Results: An “Alternative” identity was directly (r ≈ 0.3) and a “Jock” identity inversely (r ≈ -0.1) correlated with self-harm. “Alternative” teenagers self-injured more frequently (NSSI 45.5% vs. 18.8%), repeatedly self-injured, and were 4–8 times more likely to attempt suicide (even after adjusting for social background) than their non-Alternative peers. They were also more likely to self-injure for autonomic, communicative and social reasons than other adolescents.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Conclusions: About half of ‘Alternative’ adolescents’ self-injure, primarily to regulate emotions and communicate distress. However, a minority self-injure to reinforce their group identity, i.e. ‘To feel more a part of a group’

Discovery of the peculiar supernova 1998bw in the error box of GRB980425

The discovery of X-ray, optical and radio afterglows of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and the measurements of the distances to some of them have established that these events come from Gpc distances and are the most powerful photon emitters known in the Universe, with peak luminosities up to 10^52 erg/s. We here report the discovery of an optical transient, in the BeppoSAX Wide Field Camera error box of GRB980425, which occurred within about a day of the gamma-ray burst. Its optical light curve, spectrum and location in a spiral arm of the galaxy ESO 184-G82, at a redshift z = 0.0085, show that the transient is a very luminous type Ic supernova, SN1998bw. The peculiar nature of SN1998bw is emphasized by its extraordinary radio properties which require that the radio emitter expand at relativistical speed. Since SN1998bw is very different from all previously observed afterglows of GRBs, our discovery raises the possibility that very different mechanisms may give rise to GRBs, which differ little in their gamma-ray properties.Comment: Under press embargo at Nature (submitted June 10, 1998

UK Breastfeeding Helpline support: An investigation of influences upon satisfaction

Background Incentive or reward schemes are becoming increasingly popular to motivate healthy lifestyle behaviours. In this paper, insights from a qualitative and descriptive study to investigate the uptake, impact and meanings of a breastfeeding incentive intervention integrated into an existing peer support programme (Star Buddies) are reported. The Star Buddies service employs breastfeeding peer supporters to support women across the ante-natal, intra-partum and post-partum period. Methods In a disadvantaged area of North West England, women initiating breastfeeding were recruited by peer supporters on the postnatal ward or soon after hospital discharge to participate in an 8 week incentive (gifts and vouchers) and breastfeeding peer supporter intervention. In-depth interviews were conducted with 26 women participants who engaged with the incentive intervention, and a focus group was held with the 4 community peer supporters who delivered the intervention. Descriptive analysis of routinely collected data for peer supporter contacts and breastfeeding outcomes before and after the incentive intervention triangulated and retrospectively provided the context for the qualitative thematic analysis. Results A global theme emerged of 'incentives as connectors', with two sub-themes of 'facilitating connections' and 'facilitating relationships and wellbeing'. The incentives were linked to discussion themes and gift giving facilitated peer supporter access for proactive weekly home visits to support women. Regular face to face contacts enabled meaningful relationships and new connections within and between the women, families, peer supporters and care providers to be formed and sustained. Participants in the incentive scheme received more home visits and total contact time with peer supporters compared to women before the incentive intervention. Full participation levels and breastfeeding rates at 6-8 weeks were similar for women before and after the incentive intervention. Conclusion The findings suggest that whilst the provision of incentives might not influence women's intentions or motivations to breastfeed, the connections forged provided psycho-social benefits for both programme users and peer supporters