Interannual variability of tropospheric composition:the influence of changes in emissions, meteorology and clouds

We have run a chemistry transport model (CTM) to systematically examine the drivers of interannual variability of tropospheric composition during 1996-2000. This period was characterised by anomalous meteorological conditions associated with the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 and intense wildfires, which produced a large amount of pollution. On a global scale, changing meteorology (winds, temperatures, humidity and clouds) is found to be the most important factor driving interannual variability of NO2 and ozone on the timescales considered. Changes in stratosphere-troposphere exchange, which are largely driven by meteorological variability, are found to play a particularly important role in driving ozone changes. The strong influence of emissions on NO2 and ozone interannual variability is largely confined to areas where intense biomass burning events occur. For CO, interannual variability is almost solely driven by emission changes, while for OH meteorology dominates, with the radiative influence of clouds being a very strong contributor. Through a simple attribution analysis for 1996-2000 we conclude that changing cloudiness drives 25% of the interannual variability of OH over Europe by affecting shortwave radiation. Over Indonesia this figure is as high as 71%. Changes in cloudiness contribute a small but non-negligible amount (up to 6%) to the interannual variability of ozone over Europe and Indonesia. This suggests that future assessments of trends in tropospheric oxidizing capacity should account for interannual variability in cloudiness, a factor neglected in many previous studies

Domain Growth in Random Magnets

We study the kinetics of domain growth in ferromagnets with random exchange interactions. We present detailed Monte Carlo results for the nonconserved random-bond Ising model, which are consistent with power-law growth with a variable exponent. These results are interpreted in the context of disorder barriers with a logarithmic dependence on the domain size. Further, we clarify the implications of logarithmic barriers for both nonconserved and conserved domain growth.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Who will use pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and why?: Understanding PrEP awareness and acceptability amongst men who have sex with men in the UK – a mixed methods study

Background: Recent clinical trials suggest that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may reduce HIV transmission by up to 86% for men who have sex with men (MSM), whilst relatively high levels of PrEP acceptability have been reported to date. This study examines PrEP awareness amongst sub-groups of MSM communities and acceptability amongst MSM in a low prevalence region (Scotland, UK), using a mixed methods design. Methods: Quantitative surveys of n = 690 MSM recruited online via social and sociosexual media were analysed using descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression. In addition, n = 10 in-depth qualitative interviews with MSM were analysed thematically. Results: Under one third (29.7%) of MSM had heard of PrEP, with awareness related to living in large cities, degree level education, commercial gay scene use and reporting an HIV test in the last year. Just under half of participants (47.8%) were likely to use PrEP if it were available but there was no relationship between PrEP acceptability and previous PrEP awareness. Younger men (18–25 years) and those who report higher risk UAI were significantly more likely to say they would use PrEP. Qualitative data described specific PrEP scenarios, illustrating how risk, patterns of sexual practice and social relationships could affect motivation for and nature of PrEP use. Conclusion: These findings suggest substantial interest PrEP amongst MSM reporting HIV risk behaviours in Scotland. Given the Proud results, there is a strong case to investigate PrEP implementation within the UK. However, it appears that disparities in awareness have already emerged along traditional indicators of inequality. Our research identifies the need for comprehensive support when PrEP is introduced, including a key online component, to ensure equity of awareness across diverse MSM communities (e.g. by geography, education, gay scene use and HIV proximity), as well as to responding to the diverse informational and sexual health needs of all MSM communities

Behavior of the Escape Rate Function in Hyperbolic Dynamical Systems

For a fixed initial reference measure, we study the dependence of the escape rate on the hole for a smooth or piecewise smooth hyperbolic map. First, we prove the existence and Holder continuity of the escape rate for systems with small holes admitting Young towers. Then we consider general holes for Anosov diffeomorphisms, without size or Markovian restrictions. We prove bounds on the upper and lower escape rates using the notion of pressure on the survivor set and show that a variational principle holds under generic conditions. However, we also show that the escape rate function forms a devil's staircase with jumps along sequences of regular holes and present examples to elucidate some of the difficulties involved in formulating a general theory.Comment: 21 pages. v2 differs from v1 only by additions to the acknowledgment