High-Dimensional Fixed Effects Profiling Models and Applications in End-Stage Kidney Disease Patients: Current State and Future Directions

Profiling analysis aims to evaluate health care providers, including hospitals, nursing homes, or dialysis facilities among others with respect to a patient outcome, such as 30-day unplanned hospital readmission or mortality. Fixed effects (FE) profiling models have been developed over the last decade, motivated by the overall need to (a) improve accurate identification or “flagging” of under-performing providers, (b) relax assumptions inherent in random effects (RE) profiling models, and (c) take into consideration the unique disease characteristics and care/treatment processes of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients on dialysis. In this paper, we review the current state of FE methodologies and their rationale in the ESKD population and illustrate applications in four key areas: profiling dialysis facilities for (1) patient hospitalizations over time (longitudinally) using standardized dynamic readmission ratio (SDRR), (2) identification of dialysis facility characteristics (e.g., staffing level) that contribute to hospital readmission, and (3) adverse recurrent events using standardized event ratio (SER). Also, we examine the operating characteristics with a focus on FE profiling models. Throughout these areas of applications to the ESKD population, we identify challenges for future research in both methodology and clinical studies

Dialysate Potassium and Mortality in a Prospective Hemodialysis Cohort.

BackgroundStudies examining the association of dialysate potassium concentration and mortality in hemodialysis patients show conflicting findings. We hypothesized that low dialysate potassium concentrations are associated with higher mortality, particularly in patients with high pre-dialysis serum potassium concentrations.MethodsWe evaluated 624 hemodialysis patients from the prospective Malnutrition, Diet, and Racial Disparities in Kidney Disease study recruited from 16 outpatient dialysis facilities over 2011-2015 who underwent protocolized collection of dialysis treatment characteristics every 6 months. We examined the association of dialysate potassium concentration, categorized as 1, 2, and 3 mEq/L, with all-cause mortality risk in the -overall cohort, and stratified by pre-dialysis serum potassium (< 5 vs. ≥5 mEq/L) using case-mix adjusted Cox models.ResultsIn baseline analyses, dialysate potassium concentrations of 1 mEq/L were associated with higher mortality, whereas concentrations of 3 mEq/L were associated with similar mortality in the overall cohort (reference: 2 mEq/L): adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs; 95% CI) 1.70 (1.01-2.88) and 0.95 (0.64-1.39), respectively. In analyses stratified by serum potassium, baseline dialysate potassium concentrations of 1 mEq/L were associated with higher mortality in patients with serum potassium ≥5 mEq/L but not in those with serum potassium < 5 mEq/L: aHRs (95% CI) 2.87 (1.51-5.46) and 0.74 (0.27-2.07), respectively (p interaction = 0.04). These findings were robust with incremental adjustment for serum potassium, potassium-binding resins, and potassium-modifying medications.ConclusionLow (1 mEq/L) dialysate potassium -concentrations were associated with higher mortality, particularly in hemodialysis patients with high pre-dialysis serum potassium. Further studies are needed to identify therapeutic strategies that mitigate inter-dialytic serum potassium accumulation and subsequent high dialysate serum potassium gradients in this population

Association of thyroid status prior to transition to end-stage renal disease with early dialysis mortality.

BackgroundAdvanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, including those receiving dialysis, have a high prevalence of thyroid dysfunction. Although hypothyroidism is associated with higher death risk in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients, no studies have examined whether thyroid status in the pre-ESRD period impacts mortality after dialysis initiation.MethodsAmong US veterans with CKD identified from the national Veterans Affairs database that transitioned to dialysis over the period from October 2007 to September 2011, we examined the association of pre-ESRD serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels averaged over the 1-year pre-dialysis ('prelude') period with all-cause mortality in the first year following dialysis initiation.ResultsAmong 15 335 patients in the 1-year prelude cohort, TSH levels >5.0 mIU/L were associated with higher mortality in expanded case-mix Cox models (reference: TSH 0.5-5.0 mIU/L): adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 (1.07-1.33). Similar findings were observed for TSH >5.0 mIU/L and mortality in the 2- and 5-year cohorts: aHRs (95% CI) 1.11 (1.02-1.21) and 1.15 (1.07-1.24), respectively. Analyses of finer gradations of TSH in the 1-year prelude cohort demonstrated that incrementally higher levels >5.0 mIU/L were associated with increasingly higher mortality in expanded case-mix models (reference: TSH 0.5-3.0 mIU/L): aHRs (95% CI) 1.18 (1.04-1.33) and 1.28 (1.03-1.59) for TSH levels >5.0-10.0 mIU/L and >10.0 mIU/L, respectively. In the 2- and 5-year cohorts, mortality associations persisted most strongly for those with TSH >10.0 mIU/L, particularly after laboratory covariate adjustment.ConclusionsAmong new ESRD patients, there is a dose-dependent relationship between higher pre-ESRD TSH levels >5.0 mIU/L and post-ESRD mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the impact of TSH reduction with thyroid hormone supplementation in this population

Thyroid Status and Death Risk in US Veterans With Chronic Kidney Disease.

OBJECTIVE:Given that patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) have a disproportionately higher prevalence of hypothyroidism compared with their non-CKD counterparts, we sought to determine the association between thyroid status, defined by serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels, and mortality among a national cohort of patients with NDD-CKD. PATIENTS AND METHODS:Among 227,422 US veterans with stage 3 NDD-CKD with 1 or more TSH measurements during the period October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2012, we first examined the association of thyroid status, defined by TSH categories of less than 0.5, 0.5 to 5.0 (euthyroidism), and more than 5.0 mIU/L, with all-cause mortality. We then evaluated 6 granular TSH categories: less than 0.1, 0.1 to less than 0.5, 0.5 to less than 3.0, 3.0 to 5.0, more than 5.0 to 10.0, and more than 10.0 mIU/L. We concurrently examined thyroid status, thyroid-modulating therapy, and mortality in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS:In expanded case-mix adjusted Cox analyses, compared with euthyroidism, baseline and time-dependent TSH levels of more than 5.0 mIU/L were associated with higher mortality (adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] [95% CI], 1.19 [1.15-1.24] and 1.23 [1.19-1.28], respectively), as were baseline and time-dependent TSH levels of less than 0.5 mIU/L (aHRs [95% CI], 1.18 [1.15-1.22] and 1.41 [1.37-1.45], respectively). Granular examination of thyroid status showed that incrementally higher TSH levels of 3.0 mIU/L or more were associated with increasingly higher mortality in baseline and time-dependent analyses, and TSH categories of less than 0.5 mIU/L were associated with higher mortality (reference, 0.5-<3.0 mIU/L) in baseline analyses. In time-dependent analyses, untreated and undertreated hypothyroidism and untreated hyperthyroidism were associated with higher mortality (reference, spontaneous euthyroidism), whereas hypothyroidism treated-to-target showed lower mortality. CONCLUSION:Among US veterans with NDD-CKD, high-normal TSH (≥3.0 mIU/L) and lower TSH (<0.5 mIU/L) levels were associated with higher death risk. Interventional studies identifying the target TSH range associated with the greatest survival in patients with NDD-CKD are warranted

Hypoglycemia-Related Hospitalizations and Mortality Among Patients With Diabetes Transitioning to Dialysis.

Rationale & objectiveDiabetic patients with declining kidney function are at heightened risk for hypoglycemia. We sought to determine whether hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations in the interval before dialysis therapy initiation are associated with post-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) mortality among incident patients with ESRD with diabetes.Study designObservational cohort study.Setting & participantsUS veterans from the national Veterans Affairs database with diabetes and chronic kidney disease transitioning to dialysis therapy from October 2007 to September 2011.ExposureHypoglycemia-related hospitalizations during the pre-ESRD period and antidiabetic medication regimens.OutcomeThe outcome of post-ESRD all-cause mortality was evaluated relative to pre-ESRD hypoglycemia. The outcome of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization was evaluated relative to antidiabetic medication regimens.Analytic approachWe examined whether the occurrence and frequency of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations are associated with post-ESRD mortality using Cox regression models adjusted for case-mix covariates. In a subcohort of patients prescribed 0 to 2 oral antidiabetic drugs and/or insulin, we examined the 12 most commonly prescribed antidiabetic medication regimens and risk for pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization using logistic regression models adjusted for case-mix covariates.ResultsAmong 30,156 patients who met eligibility criteria, the occurrence of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization(s) was associated with higher post-ESRD mortality risk: adjusted HR (aHR), 1.25; 95% CI, 1.17-1.34 (reference group: no hypoglycemia hospitalization). Increasing frequency of hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations was independently associated with incrementally higher mortality risk: aHRs of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.12-1.30), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82), and 2.07 (95% CI, 1.46-2.95) for 1, 2, and 3 or more hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations, respectively (reference group: no hypoglycemia hospitalization). Compared with patients who were prescribed neither oral antidiabetic drugs nor insulin, medication regimens that included sulfonylureas and/or insulin were associated with higher risk for hypoglycemia.LimitationsResidual confounding cannot be excluded.ConclusionsAmong incident patients with ESRD with diabetes, a dose-dependent relationship between frequency of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations and post-ESRD mortality was observed. Further study of diabetic management strategies that prevent hypoglycemia as patients with chronic kidney disease transition to ESRD are warranted

Serum Endocannabinoid Levels in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease.

Context:Previous studies have shown that the endocannabinoid system plays a major role in energy metabolism through the actions of its main mediators, 2-arachidonoyl-sn-glycerol (2-AG) and anandamide (AEA). Objective:We examined serum levels of major endocannabinoid mediators and their association with clinical parameters in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Design and Setting:Serum concentrations of 2-AG and AEA were measured in patients on maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) and controls, and correlations with various clinical and laboratory indices were examined. 2-AG was also measured in age and sex-matched healthy subjects for comparison of levels in patients undergoing MHD. Main Outcome Measure:Serum 2-AG. Results:Serum 2-AG levels were significantly elevated in patients with ESRD compared with healthy controls. Higher levels of 2-AG were found in patients on MHD compared to healthy subjects, and similar findings were seen in a second set of subjects in independent analyses. Among 96 patients on MHD, 2-AG levels correlated significantly and positively with serum triglycerides (ρ = 0.43; P < 0.0001), body mass index (ρ = 0.40; P < 0.0001), and body anthropometric measures and negatively with serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ρ = -0.33; P = 0.001) following adjustment for demographic and clinical variables. Conclusions:In patients on MHD, levels of serum 2-AG, a major endocannabinoid mediator, were increased. In addition, increasing serum 2-AG levels correlated with increased serum triglycerides and markers of body mass. Future studies will need to evaluate the potential mechanisms responsible for these findings

Tahyna Virus and Human Infection, China

In 2006, Tahyna virus was isolated from Culex spp. mosquitoes collected in Xinjiang, People’s Republic of China. In 2007, to determine whether this virus was infecting humans, we tested serum from febrile patients. We found immunoglobulin (Ig) M and IgG against the virus, which suggests human infection in this region

LSST Science Book, Version 2.0

A survey that can cover the sky in optical bands over wide fields to faint magnitudes with a fast cadence will enable many of the exciting science opportunities of the next decade. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will have an effective aperture of 6.7 meters and an imaging camera with field of view of 9.6 deg^2, and will be devoted to a ten-year imaging survey over 20,000 deg^2 south of +15 deg. Each pointing will be imaged 2000 times with fifteen second exposures in six broad bands from 0.35 to 1.1 microns, to a total point-source depth of r~27.5. The LSST Science Book describes the basic parameters of the LSST hardware, software, and observing plans. The book discusses educational and outreach opportunities, then goes on to describe a broad range of science that LSST will revolutionize: mapping the inner and outer Solar System, stellar populations in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, the structure of the Milky Way disk and halo and other objects in the Local Volume, transient and variable objects both at low and high redshift, and the properties of normal and active galaxies at low and high redshift. It then turns to far-field cosmological topics, exploring properties of supernovae to z~1, strong and weak lensing, the large-scale distribution of galaxies and baryon oscillations, and how these different probes may be combined to constrain cosmological models and the physics of dark energy.Comment: 596 pages. Also available at full resolution at http://www.lsst.org/lsst/sciboo

Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms of 8 Inflammation-related Genes and their Associations with Smoking-related Cancers

Tobacco smoke and its metabolites are carcinogens that increase tissue oxidative stress and induce target tissue inflammation. We hypothesized that genetic variation of inflammatory pathway genes plays a role in tobacco-related carcinogenesis and is modified by tobacco smoking. We evaluated the association of 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms of 8 inflammation-related genes with tobacco-related cancers (lung, oropharynx, larynx, esophagus, stomach, liver, bladder, and kidney) using 3 case-control studies from: Los Angeles (population-based; 611 lung and 553 upper aero-digestive tract cancer cases and 1,040 controls), Taixing, China (population-based; 218 esophagus, 206 stomach, 204 liver cancer cases, and 415 controls), and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (hospital-based; 227 bladder cancer cases and 211 controls). After adjusting for age, education, ethnicity, gender, and tobacco smoking, IL10 rs1800871 was inversely associated with oropharyngeal cancer (CT+TT vs. CC adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.95), and was positively associated with lung cancer among never smokers (TT vs. CT+CC aOR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.3-5.1) and inversely with oropharyngeal cancer among ever smokers (CT+TT vs. CC aOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.41-0.95). Among all pooled never smokers (588 cases and 816 controls), TNF rs1799964 was inversely associated with smoking-related cancer (CC vs. CT+TT aOR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.17-0.77). Bayesian correction for multiple comparisons suggests that chance is unlikely to explain our findings (although epigenetic mechanisms may be in effect), which support our hypotheses, suggesting that IL10 rs1800871 is a susceptibility marker for oropharyngeal and lung cancers, and that TNF rs1799964 is associated with smoking-related cancers among never smokers. © 2010 UICC