Development of Geospatial Models for Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Traffic Environmental Impacts of Heavy Vehicle Freight Transportation

Heavy vehicle freight transportation is one of the primary contributors to the socio-economic development, but it has great influence on traffic environment. To comprehensively and more accurately quantify the impacts of heavy vehicles on road infrastructure performance, a series of geospatial models are developed for both geographically global and local assessment of the impacts. The outcomes are applied in flexible multi-criteria decision making for the industrial practice of road maintenance and management

The second dimension of spatial association

A reasonable and adequate understanding of spatial association between geographical variables is the basis of spatial statistical inference and geocomputation, such as spatial prediction. Most of the current models for exploring spatial association of variables are constructed using data at sample locations. In this study, approaches for exploring spatial association using observations at sample locations are defined as the first dimension of spatial association (FDA). However, geographical information outside sample locations is usually missing in current models. To address this issue, this study proposes the concept of the second dimension of spatial association (SDA), which is an approach that extracts geographical information at locations outside samples for exploring spatial association. Based on the concept of SDA, three SDA models, including SDA-based multivariate linear regression, machine learning (i.e., random forest), and geostatistical models (i.e., random forest kriging), are developed for examining spatial association and predicting spatial distributions of trace elements, including Cr and Cu, in a mining region in Western Australia. Model accuracy is evaluated by comparing with corresponding FDA models. A new R package “SecDim” is developed to conduct SDA models. Results show that SDA models have a series of advantages in examining spatial association compared with FDA models. First, the accuracy of spatial prediction can be critically improved by SDA compared with the FDA, although identical explanatory variables and models are used for the modeling and prediction. Second, SDA can effectively indicate the multi-scale effects and diverse information within explanatory variables of the geographical environment at local ranges using the second dimension variables. Third, SDA can avoid underestimating high values and overestimating low values in the general FDA-based statistical models, machine learning, and geostatistical models. Finally, SDA models provide more smooth spatial predictions across space than that predicted by FDA models and avoid massive fluctuations at local ranges. The concept of SDA provides new insight into geographical information-based spatial association. SDA and multiple types of SDA models have great potential for more accurate and effective spatial statistical inference and geocomputation in diverse fields

Do Charitable Foundations Spend Money Where People Need It Most? A Spatial Analysis of China

© 2018 by the authors. Charitable foundations are a critical part of public services. However, there is a large gap between the locations and expenditures of charitable foundations and the real population needs for most nations. Three types of Chinese local charity foundations, i.e., those for poverty, education and medical assistance, are used as examples to explore the distinct gaps. The spatial distributions of local charity foundations are characterized by spatial scan statistics and spatial autocorrelation models. The local population needs of charitable assistance for poverty, education and medical services are quantified with their respective weighted proxy indexes of the current conditions. Thus, the nonlinear relationships between population needs and the expenditures of local charitable foundations are described with generalized additive models. The results show that both the participation rate and the charity expenditures of the foundations are highly clustered within a few cities where the population needs are relatively small and are furthermore rare among the other cities. The charity expenditures of local foundations are nonlinearly correlated with the current conditions of socioeconomic development, education and medical levels due to the diverse development stages of the cities. This study provides quantitative evidence for local authorities and charitable foundations to make targeted and constructive decisions to gradually reduce the distinct gaps

Robust geographical detector

Geographical detector (GD) is a method to measure spatial associations using a power of determinant (PD) value that compares the variance of data within spatial zones and in the whole study area. Recent studies have implemented GD in diverse fields, such as environmental and socio-economic issues. Spatial data discretization is an essential stage for determining zones using explanatory variables. However, the spatial data discretization process has been sensitive to the GD results. To address this issue, this article proposes a Robust Geographical Detector (RGD) to overcome the limitations of the sensitivity in spatial data discretization and estimate robust PD values of explanatory variables using a B-value. The RGD determines spatial zones with numerical interval breaks using an optimization algorithm of variance-based change point detection. In this study, RGD is implemented in a nationwide case study exploring potential factors of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) density in industrial regions across Australia, where data on both NO2 and potential factors are sourced from satellite images and remote sensing products using Google Earth Engine. Results show that RGD can effectively explore the maximum PD values of spatial associations between response and explanatory variables due to the optimization algorithm-based spatial zones. In addition, RGD-based PD values are generally higher, more robust, and more stable than GD-based PD values since RGD can guarantee the increment of PD values with the increase of interval numbers, which is a challenge in previous GD models. Finally, RGD could provide a more reliable interpretation of PD as RGD finds optimal intervals-based spatial zones determined by potential factors. This study demonstrates that the developed RGD model can provide robust and reliable solutions to explore spatial associations and identify geographical factors

Advances in geocomputation and geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) for mapping

Geocomputation and geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) have essential roles in advancing geographic information science (GIS) and Earth observation to a new stage. GeoAI has enhanced traditional geospatial analysis and mapping, altering the methods for understanding and managing complex human–natural systems. However, there are still challenges in various aspects of geospatial applications related to natural, built, and social environments, and in integrating unique geospatial features into GeoAI models. Meanwhile, geospatial and Earth data are critical components in geocomputation and GeoAI studies, as they can effectively reveal geospatial patterns, factors, relationships, and decision-making processes. This editorial provides a comprehensive overview of geocomputation and GeoAI applications in mapping, classifying them into four categories: (i) buildings and infrastructure, (ii) land use analysis, (iii) natural environment and hazards, and (iv) social issues and human activities. In addition, the editorial summarizes geospatial and Earth data in case studies into seven categories, including in-situ data, geospatial datasets, crowdsourced geospatial data (i.e., geospatial big data), remote sensing data, photogrammetry data, LiDAR, and statistical data. Finally, the editorial presents challenges and opportunities for future research

Elucidation of spatial disparities of factors that affect air pollutant concentrations in industrial regions at a continental level

Industrial regions and relevant infrastructures are known to contribute to air pollutant emissions; thus, a detailed investigation of the air pollutant concentrations of a region based on specific land uses, with spatial reasoning, can support smart regional planning. However, the current knowledge about the spatial patterns that indicate the relationship between the anthropological or environmental features and the air pollutant concentrations in industrial regions is limited. Thus, in this study, we aimed to identify the factors that affect air-pollutant concentrations due to local spatial impacts in industrial regions across Australia. Considering the large spatial scale, the impact of a global factor can be overwhelmed by another factor due to local spatial impacts, and the phenomenon is a kind of spatial disparity. We developed a novel set of methods, including a point-of-interests-based spatial identification method and geographically weighted regression (with standardised coefficients), to: (i) identify the industrial regions in the study area, (ii) collect the remote sensing factors, and (iii) identify the factors that affect the spatial disparity of air-pollutant concentrations in industrial regions. The results indicated a significant spatial disparity in the air pollutant concentrations in the industrial region, at a continental scale. Anthropogenic factors significantly affected the spatial patterns of air pollutant concentrations in the industrial regions that were remote to cities, whereas meteorological and topographical factors had significant impacts on the air pollutant distributions in urban industrial regions. Furthermore, within the nationwide industrial lands, drives of the relatively high concentrations of ozone and sulphur dioxide, the drivers of the air pollutant concentrations were environmental factors; high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide were more associated with the topographical features of the region. The methods proposed in this study can serve as a reliable framework for analysing the air quality of industrial regions and can also, supplement future studies on emissions reduction in industrial parks

Evaluation of SMAP, SMOS-IC, FY3B, JAXA, and LPRM Soil Moisture Products over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Its Surrounding Areas

© 2019 by the authors. High-quality and long time-series soil moisture (SM) data are increasingly required for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) to more accurately and effectively assess climate change. In this study, to evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of SM data, five passive microwave remotely sensed SM products are collected over the QTP, including those from the soil moisture active passive (SMAP), soil moisture and ocean salinity INRA-CESBIO (SMOS-IC), Fengyun-3B microwave radiation image (FY3B), and two SM products derived from the advanced microwave scanning radiometer 2 (AMSR2). The two AMSR2 products are generated by the land parameter retrieval model (LPRM) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) algorithm, respectively. The SM products are evaluated through a two-stage data comparison method. The first stage is direct validation at the grid scale. Five SM products are compared with corresponding in situ measurements at five in situ networks, including Heihe, Naqu, Pali, Maqu, and Ngari. Another stage is indirect validation at the regional scale, where the uncertainties of the data are quantified by using a three-cornered hat (TCH) method. The results at the regional scale indicate that soil moisture is underestimated by JAXA and overestimated by LPRM, some noise is contained in temporal variations in SMOS-IC, and FY3B has relatively low absolute accuracy. The uncertainty of SMAP is the lowest among the five products over the entire QTP. In the SM map composed by five SM products with the lowest pixel-level uncertainty, 66.64% of the area is covered by SMAP (JAXA: 19.39%, FY3B: 10.83%, LPRM: 2.11%, and SMOS-IC: 1.03%). This study reveals some of the reasons for the different performances of these five SM products, mainly from the perspective of the parameterization schemes of their corresponding retrieval algorithms. Specifically, the parameterization configurations and corresponding input datasets, including the land-surface temperature, the vegetation optical depth, and the soil dielectric mixing model are analyzed and discussed. This study provides quantitative evidence to better understand the uncertainties of SM products and explain errors that originate from the retrieval algorithms

Deep transfer learning of global spectra for local soil carbon monitoring

There is global interest in spectroscopy and the development of large and diverse soil spectral libraries (SSL) to model soil organic carbon (SOC) and monitor, report, and verify (MRV) its changes. The reason is that increasing SOC can improve food production and mitigate climate change. However, ‘global’ modelling of SOC with such diverse and hyperdimensional SSLs do not generalise well locally, e.g. at a field scale. To address this challenge, we propose deep transfer learning (DTL) to leverage useful information from large-scale SSLs to assist local modelling. We used one global, three country-specific SSLs and data from three local sites with DTL to improve the modelling and localise the SOC estimates in individual fields or farms in each country. With DTL, we transferred instances from the SSLs, representations from one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNNs) trained on the SSLs, and both instances and representations to improve local modelling. Transferring instances effectively used information from the global SSL to most accurately estimate SOC in each site, reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 25.8% on average compared with local modelling. Our results highlight the effectiveness of DTL and the value of diverse, global SSLs for accurate local SOC predictions. Applying DTL with a global SSL one could estimate SOC anywhere in the world more accurately, rapidly, and cost-effectively, enabling MRV protocols to monitor SOC changes

Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Methods: Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Results: Average malaria incidence was 0.107 per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R2 = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R2 = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. Conclusions: The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity and spatially differentiation. Using the future fluctuated precipitation and the increased temperature, median malaria incidence in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 would significantly increase that it might increase 19 to 29 % in 2020, but currently China is in the malaria elimination phase, indicating that the effective strategies and actions had been taken. While the mean incidences will not increase even reduce due to the incidence reduction in high-risk regions but the simultaneous expansion of the high-risk areas

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation