Exchange Rate Exposure: Does exchange rate movement influence tourism development?

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate exposure on tourism demand using a dynamic panel of 23 sub Saharan Africa’s tourist destinations. Although, the research question for the paper focuses on whether uncertainty on the exchange rate can help explain why could exchange rate fluctuation co-move with the travel expenditure using data from these selected African tourist destinations as well as the variations across countries in recent years. Utilising annual data from 1996 to 2015 on dynamic panel estimation techniques, we provide evidence which suggests that both variables exchange rate fluctuation and travel expenditure are statistically significant determinants of tourism demand. The Penal autoregressive distributed lagged ARDL panel cointegration test is utilised to examine the existence of a long run association between exchange rate and travel expenditure and the findings from the panel cointegration test reveals that real income, real xchange rates, price inflation and travel expenditure and international tourist arrival have long run relationship. We also employed pool (OLS), fixed effect (FE) and random effect (RE) models to investigate which of the models in questions can at most have useful information to explain tourism demand subject to travel expenditure with respect to the selected sampled tourist destinations in Africa

Do Indian economic activities impact ASEAN-5 stock markets?

This study examines the dynamic linkages of ASEAN-5 with India based on a multivariate framework. DCC-MGARCH model was used to assess the presence of contagion effects and herding behaviour, indicated by the dynamic conditional correlations. The var -Granger causality test was employed to capture the direction of dynamic volatility transmission at the short run. Findings showed that the dynamic correlation of ASEAN-5 stock markets with Indian economy is in par with the U.S. and Japan. The simultaneous sudden spike in Dynamic Conditional Correlation between India and ASEAN-5 and followed by immediate reversal to decreasing Dynamic Conditional Correlation in 2009 indicate a contagion effect and herding behaviour which coincided with European sovereign debt crisis. The immediate reversal back to decreasing Dynamic Conditional Correlation suggests that both countries are hardly contagious by external crisis. In the short run, there is no volatility spillover from Indian economic activities to ASEAN-5 stock markets but there is volatility spillover from stock markets of Indonesia and Singapore to Indian economic activities. Trade policies, economic crises and economic liberalisation play significant roles in shaping the structure of the dynamic volatility correlations between the studied markets. This study reveals that ASEAN-5 has become preferred markets for the diversification of stock portfolio for India in the short run

Do Indian economic activities impact ASEAN-5 stock markets?

This study examines the dynamic linkages of ASEAN-5 with India based on a multivariate framework. DCC-MGARCH model was used to assess the presence of contagion effects and herding behaviour, indicated by the dynamic conditional correlations. The var -Granger causality test was employed to capture the direction of dynamic volatility transmission at the short run. Findings showed that the dynamic correlation of ASEAN-5 stock markets with Indian economy is in par with the U.S. and Japan. The simultaneous sudden spike in Dynamic Conditional Correlation between India and ASEAN-5 and followed by immediate reversal to decreasing Dynamic Conditional Correlation in 2009 indicate a contagion effect and herding behaviour which coincided with European sovereign debt crisis. The immediate reversal back to decreasing Dynamic Conditional Correlation suggests that both countries are hardly contagious by external crisis. In the short run, there is no volatility spillover from Indian economic activities to ASEAN-5 stock markets but there is volatility spillover from stock markets of Indonesia and Singapore to Indian economic activities. Trade policies, economic crises and economic liberalisation play significant roles in shaping the structure of the dynamic volatility correlations between the studied markets. This study reveals that ASEAN-5 has become preferred markets for the diversification of stock portfolio for India in the short run

The relationship between public and private sector investments in Syria

This study investigates the relationship between public and private sector investments in Syria over the period 1980-2010. It utilizes the Johansen cointegration approach and Granger causality test. The cointegration test shows that public sector investment has a positive effect on private sector investment, while private sector investment affects public sector investment negatively. The Granger causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional short-run causality relationship running from public sector investment to private sector investment, and a bidirectional long-run causality relationship between public and private sector investment in the countryEste trabajo investiga las relaciones entre la inversión pública y privada en Siria durante el periodo 1980-2010. Para ello se utiliza la metodología de cointegración de Johansen y el test de causalidad en el sentido de Granger. El test de cointegración muestra que la inversión pública tiene un efecto positivo sobre la inversión privada, mientras que esta última afecta negativamente a la primera. El test de causalidad de Granger indica la existencia de una relación de causalidad unidireccional a corto plazo desde la inversión pública a la privada, y bidireccional a largo plazo entre ambos tipos de inversión