Simulation-Based Dynamic Passenger Flow Assignment Modelling for a Schedule-Based Transit Network

The online operation management and the offline policy evaluation in complex transit networks require an effective dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) method that can capture the temporal-spatial nature of traffic flows. The objective of this work is to propose a simulation-based dynamic passenger assignment framework and models for such applications in the context of schedule-based rail transit systems. In the simulation framework, travellers are regarded as individual agents who are able to obtain complete information on the current traffic conditions. A combined route selection model integrated with pretrip route selection and entrip route switch is established for achieving the dynamic network flow equilibrium status. The train agent is operated strictly with the timetable and its capacity limitation is considered. A continuous time-driven simulator based on the proposed framework and models is developed, whose performance is illustrated through a large-scale network of Beijing subway. The results indicate that more than 0.8 million individual passengers and thousands of trains can be simulated simultaneously at a speed ten times faster than real time. This study provides an efficient approach to analyze the dynamic demand-supply relationship for large schedule-based transit networks

Fingerprint of rice paddies in spatial-temporal dynamics of atmospheric methane concentration in monsoon Asia.

Agriculture (e.g., rice paddies) has been considered one of the main emission sources responsible for the sudden rise of atmospheric methane concentration (XCH4) since 2007, but remains debated. Here we use satellite-based rice paddy and XCH4 data to investigate the spatial-temporal relationships between rice paddy area, rice plant growth, and XCH4 in monsoon Asia, which accounts for ~87% of the global rice area. We find strong spatial consistencies between rice paddy area and XCH4 and seasonal consistencies between rice plant growth and XCH4. Our results also show a decreasing trend in rice paddy area in monsoon Asia since 2007, which suggests that the change in rice paddy area could not be one of the major drivers for the renewed XCH4 growth, thus other sources and sinks should be further investigated. Our findings highlight the importance of satellite-based paddy rice datasets in understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of XCH4 in monsoon Asia

Reduced methane emissions from large-scale changes in water management of China’s rice paddies during 1980-2000

Decreased methane emissions from paddy rice may have contributed to the decline in the rate of increase of global atmospheric methane (CH4) concentration over the last 20 years. In China, midseason paddy drainage, which reduces growing season CH4 fluxes, was first implemented in the early 1980s, and has gradually replaced continuous flooding in much of the paddy area. We constructed a regional prediction for China\u27s rice paddy methane emissions using the DNDC biogeochemical model. Results of continuous flooding and midseason drainage simulations for all paddy fields in China were combined with regional scenarios for the timing of the transition from continuous flooding to predominantly mid-season drainage to generate estimates of total methane flux for 1980–2000. CH4 emissions from China\u27s paddy fields were reduced over that period by ∼5 Tg CH4 yr−1

Modeling impacts of farming management alternatives on CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions: A case study for water management of rice agriculture of China

Since the early 1980s, water management of rice paddies in China has changed substantially, with midseason drainage gradually replacing continuous flooding. This has provided an opportunity to estimate how a management alternative impacts greenhouse gas emissions at a large regional scale. We integrated a process-based model, DNDC, with a GIS database of paddy area, soil properties, and management factors. We simulated soil carbon sequestration (or net CO2 emission) and CH4 and N2O emissions from China\u27s rice paddies (30 million ha), based on 1990 climate and management conditions, with two water management scenarios: continuous flooding and midseason drainage. The results indicated that this change in water management has reduced aggregate CH4 emissions about 40%, or 5 Tg CH4 yr−1, roughly 5–10% of total global methane emissions from rice paddies. The mitigating effect of midseason drainage on CH4 flux was highly uneven across the country; the highest flux reductions (\u3e200 kg CH4-C ha−1 yr−1) were in Hainan, Sichuan, Hubei, and Guangdong provinces, with warmer weather and multiple-cropping rice systems. The smallest flux reductions (\u3c25 kg CH4-C ha−1 yr−1) occurred in Tianjin, Hebei, Ningxia, Liaoning, and Gansu Provinces, with relatively cool weather and single cropping systems. Shifting water management from continuous flooding to midseason drainage increased N2O emissions from Chinese rice paddies by 0.15 Tg N yr−1 (∼50% increase). This offset a large fraction of the greenhouse gas radiative forcing benefit gained by the decrease in CH4 emissions. Midseason drainage-induced N2O fluxes were high (\u3e8.0 kg N/ha) in Jilin, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Xinjiang provinces, where the paddy soils contained relatively high organic matter. Shifting water management from continuous flooding to midseason drainage reduced total net CO2emissions by 0.65 Tg CO2-C yr−1, which made a relatively small contribution to the net climate impact due to the low radiative potential of CO2. The change in water management had very different effects on net greenhouse gas mitigation when implemented across climatic zones, soil types, or cropping systems. Maximum CH4 reductions and minimum N2O increases were obtained when the mid-season draining was applied to rice paddies with warm weather, high soil clay content, and low soil organic matter content, for example, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces, which have 60% of China\u27s rice paddies and produce 65% of China\u27s rice harvest

Assessing agricultural drought in summer over Oklahoma Mesonet sites using the water-related vegetation index from MODIS.

Agricultural drought, a common phenomenon in most parts of the world, is one of the most challenging natural hazards to monitor effectively. Land surface water index (LSWI), calculated as a normalized ratio between near infrared (NIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR), is sensitive to vegetation and soil water content. This study examined the potential of a LSWI-based, drought-monitoring algorithm to assess summer drought over 113 Oklahoma Mesonet stations comprising various land cover and soil types in Oklahoma. Drought duration in a year was determined by the number of days with LSWI <0 (DNLSWI) during summer months (June-August). Summer rainfall anomalies and LSWI anomalies followed a similar seasonal dynamics and showed strong correlations (r 2 = 0.62-0.73) during drought years (2001, 2006, 2011, and 2012). The DNLSWI tracked the east-west gradient of summer rainfall in Oklahoma. Drought intensity increased with increasing duration of DNLSWI, and the intensity increased rapidly when DNLSWI was more than 48 days. The comparison between LSWI and the US Drought Monitor (USDM) showed a strong linear negative relationship; i.e., higher drought intensity tends to have lower LSWI values and vice versa. However, the agreement between LSWI-based algorithm and USDM indicators varied substantially from 32 % (D 2 class, moderate drought) to 77 % (0 and D 0 class, no drought) for different drought intensity classes and varied from ∼30 % (western Oklahoma) to >80 % (eastern Oklahoma) across regions. Our results illustrated that drought intensity thresholds can be established by counting DNLSWI (in days) and used as a simple complementary tool in several drought applications for semi-arid and semi-humid regions of Oklahoma. However, larger discrepancies between USDM and the LSWI-based algorithm in arid regions of western Oklahoma suggest the requirement of further adjustment in the algorithm for its application in arid regions

Enhanced gross primary production and evapotranspiration in juniper-encroached grasslands.

Woody plant encroachment (WPE) into grasslands has been occurring globally and may be accelerated by climate change in the future. This land cover change is expected to alter the carbon and water cycles, but it remains uncertain how and to what extent the carbon and water cycles may change with WPE into grasslands under current climate. In this study, we examined the difference of vegetation indices (VIs), evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary production (GPP), and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) during 2000-2010 between grasslands and juniper-encroached grasslands. We also quantitatively assessed the changes of GPP and ET for grasslands with different proportions of juniper encroachment (JWPE). Our results suggested that JWPE increased the GPP, ET, greenness-related VIs, and SIF of grasslands. Mean annual GPP and ET were, respectively, ~55% and ~45% higher when grasslands were completely converted into juniper forests under contemporary climate during 2000-2010. The enhancement of annual GPP and ET for grasslands with JWPE varied over years ranging from about +20% GPP (~+30% for ET) in the wettest year (2007) to about twice as much GPP (~+55% for ET) in the severe drought year (2006) relative to grasslands without encroachment. Additionally, the differences in GPP and ET showed significant seasonal dynamics. During the peak growing season (May-August), GPP and ET for grasslands with JWPE were ~30% and ~40% higher on average. This analysis provided insights into how and to what degree carbon and water cycles were impacted by JWPE, which is vital to understanding how JWPE and ecological succession will affect the regional and global carbon and water budgets in the future

Measuring Retiming Responses of Passengers to a Prepeak Discount Fare by Tracing Smart Card Data: A Practical Experiment in the Beijing Subway

Understanding passengers’ responses to fare changes is the basis to design reasonable price policies. This work aims to explore retiming responses of travelers changing departure times due to a prepeak discount pricing strategy in the Beijing subway in China, using smart card records from an automatic fare collection (AFC) system. First, a new set of classification indicators is established to segment passengers through a two-step clustering approach. Then, the potentially influenced passengers for the fare policy are identified, and the shifted passengers who changed their departure time are detected by tracing changes in passengers’ expected departure times before and after the policy. Lastly, the fare elasticity of departure time is defined to measure the retiming responses of passengers. Two scenarios are studied of one month (short term) and six months (middle term) after the policy. The retiming elasticity of different passenger groups, retiming elasticity over time, and retiming elasticity functions of shifted time are measured. The results show that there are considerable differences in the retiming elasticities of different passenger groups; low-frequency passengers are more sensitive to discount fares than high-frequency passengers. The retiming elasticity decreases greatly with increasing shifted time, and 30 minutes is almost the maximum acceptable shifted time for passengers. Moreover, the retiming elasticity of passengers in the middle term is approximately twice that in the short term. Applications of fare optimization are also executed, and the results suggest that optimizing the valid time window of the discount fares is a feasible way to improve the congestion relief effect of the policy, while policy makers should be cautious to change fare structures and increase discounts. Document type: Articl

Greenhouse gas emission consequences of large-scale changes in water management of China’s rice paddies during 1980-2000

In China, midseason paddy drainage, which reduces growing season methane fluxes and enhances growing season nitrous oxide fluxes, was first implemented in the early 1980s, and has gradually replaced continuous flooding in much of the paddy rice area. We constructed a prediction rice paddy methane and nitrous oxide emissions in China using the DNDC biogeochemical model. Results of continuous flooding and midseason drainage simulations for all paddy fields in China (about 30 million ha) were combined with regional scenarios for the timing of the transition from continuous flooding to predominantly mid-season drainage to generate estimates of total methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) flux for 1980-2000. By shifting from continuous flooding to midseason drainage management, we estimate that total N2O emissions from the rice paddies in China increased by about 0.17 Tg N2O-N yr−1 due to the stimulated nitri- fication and denitrification, while CH4 emissions decreased by about 4.5 Tg CH4-C yr−1 due to increased soil aeration. Simulated net carbon loss in paddy soils was about 0.65 Tg C yr−1 due to elevated decomposition. On a 100-year time frame, CH4 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23 times that of CO2, and N2O has a GWP 296 times that of CO2. The total GWP impact (2000 vs. 1980) of shifting to predominantly mid-season paddy drainage was -0.138 Pg CO2-equiv yr−1 from methane, +0.077 Pg CO2-equiv yr−1 from nitrous oxide and +0.0024 Pg CO2 yr−1 from soil C loss, for a total GWP impact of -0.059 Pg CO2-equiv yr−1 . The results imply that more than half of the GWP benefit of decreased CH4 emissions was offset, primarily by increases in N2O emissions, and to a small degree by soil C loss