Sensitivity analysis of a land surface scheme using multicriteria methods

Attempts to model surface-atmosphere interactions with greater physical realism have resulted in complex land surface schemes (LSS) with large numbers of parameters. A companion paper describes a multicriteria calibration procedure for extracting plot-scale estimates of the preferred ranges of these parameters from the various observational data sets that are now available. A complementary procedure is presented in this paper that provides an objective determination of the multicriteria sensitivity of the modeled variables to the parameters, thereby allowing the number of calibration parameters and hence the computational effort to be reduced. Two case studies are reported for the BATS model using data sets of typical quality but very different location and climatological regime (ARM-CART and Tucson). The sensitivity results were found to be consistent with the physical properties of the different environments, thereby supporting the reasonableness of the model formulation. Further, when the insensitive parameters are omitted from the calibration process, there is little degradation in the quality of the model description and little change in the preferred range of the remaining parameters. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union

Parameter estimation of a land surface scheme using multicriteria methods

Attempts to create models of surface-atmosphere interactions with greater physical realism have resulted in land surface schemes (LSS) with large numbers of parameters. The hope has been that these parameters can be assigned typical values by inspecting the literature. The potential for using the various observational data sets that are now available to extract plot-scale estimates for the parameters of a complex LSS via advanced parameter estimation methods developed for hydrological models is explored in this paper. Results are reported for two case studies using data sets of typical quality but very different location and climatological regime (ARM-CART and Tucson). The traditional single-criterion methods were found to be of limited value. However, a multicriteria approach was found to be effective in constraining the parameter estimates into physically plausible ranges when observations on at least one appropriate heat flux and one properly selected state variable are available. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union

Estimation of atmospheric total organic carbon (TOC) – paving the path towards carbon budget closure

The atmosphere contains a rich variety of reactive organic compounds, including gaseous volatile organic carbon (VOCs), carbonaceous aerosols, and other organic compounds at varying volatility. Here we present a novel and simple approach to measure atmospheric non-methane total organic carbon (TOC) based on catalytic oxidation of organics in bulk air to carbon dioxide. This method shows little sensitivity towards humidity and near 100 % oxidation efficiencies for all VOCs tested. We estimate a best-case hourly precision of 8 ppb C during times of low ambient variability in carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide (CO). As proof of concept of this approach, we show measurements of TOC+CO during August–September 2016 from a coastal city in the southwest United Kingdom. TOC+CO was substantially elevated during the day on weekdays (occasionally over 2 ppm C) as a result of local anthropogenic activity. On weekends and holidays, with a mean (standard error) of 102 (8) ppb C, TOC+CO was lower and showed much less diurnal variability. TOC+CO was significantly lower when winds were coming off the Atlantic Ocean than when winds were coming off land if we exclude the weekday daytime. By subtracting the estimated CO from TOC+CO, we constrain the mean (uncertainty) TOC in Atlantic-dominated air masses to be around 23 ( ±≥8 ) ppb C during this period. A proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) was deployed at the same time, detecting a large range of organic compounds (oxygenated VOCs, biogenic VOCs, aromatics, dimethyl sulfide). The total speciated VOCs from the PTR-MS, denoted here as Sum(VOC), amounted to a mean (uncertainty) of 12 ( ±≤3 ) ppb C in marine air. Possible contributions from a number of known organic compounds present in marine air that were not detected by the PTR-MS are assessed within the context of the TOC budget. Finally, we note that the use of a short, heated sample tube can improve the transmission of organics to the analyzer, while operating our system alternately with and without a particle filter should enable a better separation of semi-volatile and particulate organics from the VOCs within the TOC budget. Future concurrent measurements of TOC, CO, and a more comprehensive range of speciated VOCs would enable a better characterization and understanding of the atmospheric organic carbon budget

Design of a Third-party Reverse Logistics Network under a Carbon Tax Scheme

© 2016 Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology. Reverse logistics network involves significant inherent uncertainties, which cannot be completely characterized because of a lack of adequate historical data. In this study, a multi-product and multi-period interval programming model was developed on the basis of partial information to design an effective reverse logistics network. In addition, the trade-offbetween economic benefits and the environmental burdens from carbon emissions was analyzed by considering the effect of a carbon tax scheme on the reverse logistics network design. Through an improved and modified interval linear programming method, the optimal interval solution was obtained with LINGO. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted to explore the effectiveness of the model and the effect of the carbon tax scheme. Results show that the optimal solution of the reverse logistics network design is robust. The effect of the carbon tax scheme is trivial when the carbon tax is low and significant when the carbon tax is high. As carbon tax gradually increases, carbon emissions effectively decrease, but sharply declines the total profit sharply declines. The findings indicate that the proposed model can effectively solve the reverse logistics network design with partial information under a carbon tax scheme

The association of HBV core promoter double mutations (A1762T and G1764A) with viral load differs between HBeAg positive and anti-HBe positive individuals: A longitudinal analysis

Background/Aims: Although there have been a few reports regarding the effect of basal core promoter (BCP) double mutations (A1762T and G1764A) on hepatitis B viral loads, the association remains uncertain. We aim to determine the association after controlling for HBeAg - a strong confounding factor.Methods: We selected randomly 190 individuals from a Chinese cohort of 2258 subjects for cross-sectional analysis and 56 of the 190 for longitudinal analysis of viral loads.Results: In multivariable analysis of the cross-sectional data, BCP double mutations are significantly associated with lower viral loads in HBeAg positive subjects but no difference was found in anti-HBe positive subjects. Triple mutations at nucleotide (nt) 1753, 1762 and 1764 and mutations between nt 1809 and 1817, precore stop mutation (nt 1896) and genotype are not associated with viral loads in either HBeAg or anti-HBe positive subjects. Analysis of the longitudinal data yielded similar results to the cross-sectional data. Viral loads differ significantly between individuals infected with wild-type and BCP double mutations prior to HBeAg seroconversion but this difference is lost after seroconversion.Conclusions: BCP double mutations are associated with lower viral loads in HBeAg positive individuals but have no effect on the viral loads of anti-HBe positive individuals. (C) 2008 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A systematic simulation methodology for LNG ship operations in port waters: a case study in Meizhou Bay

With the increment for liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand, LNG carriers are becoming larger in size. The operational safety of the carriers and the associated terminals is increasingly attracting attention. This is particularly true when a large LNG vessel approaches a terminal, requiring a detailed investigation of ship handling in port waters, especially in certain unusual cases. A full mission simulator provides an effective tool for research and training in operations of both port terminals and ships. This paper presents an experimental design methodology of the full mission simulation. The details as to how the simulation is achieved are described, and the simulation strategies applicable to LNG ships are specified. A typical case study is used to demonstrate and verify the proposed design methodology. The proposed methodology of the full mission simulation provides guidance for port safety research, risk evaluation and seafarer training. © 2017 Institute of Marine Engineering, Science & Technolog

A new hybrid approach to human error probability quantification-applications in maritime operations

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) has always been an essential research issue in safety critical systems. Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method (CREAM), as a well-known second generation HRA method is capable of conducting both retrospective and prospective analysis, thus being widely used in many sectors. However, the needs of addressing the use of a deterministic approach to configure common performance conditions (CPCs) and the assignment of the same importance to all the CPCs in a traditional CREAM method reveal a significant research gap to be fulfilled. This paper describes a modified CREAM methodology based on an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach and a Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique for making human error probability quantification in CREAM rational. An illustrative case study associated with maritime operations is presented. The proposed method is validated by sensitivity analysis and the quantitative analysis result is verified through comparing the real data collected from Shanghai coastal waters. Its main contribution lies in that it for the first time addresses the data incompleteness in HEP, given that the previous relevant studies mainly focus on the fuzziness in data. The findings will provide useful insights for quantitative assessment of seafarers' errors to reduce maritime risks due to human errors

Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometric Analysis of Essential Oil of Aerial Parts of Glycosmis parviflora (Sims) Little (Rutaceae)

Purpose: To investigate the chemical composition and toxicity of the essential oil of Glycosmis parviflora (Sims) Little aerial parts against root-knot nematode and two grain storage insects (maize weevil and red flour beetle).Methods: Steam distillation of G. parviflora was carried out using Clavenger apparatus in order to extract its volatile oil. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometric (GC/MS) analysis (HP-5MS column) of the essential oil was performed and the toxicity of the oil determined by contact test.Results: A total of 37 components comprising 98.7 % of the essential oil were identified, of which (Z)- caryophyllene (20.6 %), methyl isoeugenol (11.1 %), (Z)-β-ocimene (8.9 %), α-cubebene (6.4 %), nerolidol (5.4 %), aromandendrene (4.9 %) and γ-pyronene (4.7 %) were found to be the major components. The essential oil possessed strong nematicidal activity against M. incognita with an LC50 value of 92.84 μg/ml. The essential oil of G. parviflora exhibited strong contact toxicity against S. zeamais and T. castaneum adults with LD50 values of 41.7 and 22.6 μg/adult,  respectively.Conclusion: The study indicates that the essential oil of G. parviflora aerial parts has a potential for development into a natural insecticide/nematicide for control of nematodes and grain storage insects.Keywords: Glycosmis parviflora, Essential oil, Meloidogyne incognita, Sitophilus zeamais, Triboliumcastaneum, Contact toxicit

Malondialdehyde level and some enzymatic activities in subclinical mastitis milk

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the changes occurring in milk malondialdehyde (MDA) level and some enzymatic activities as a result of subclinical mastitis (SCM) in dairy cows. A total of 124 milk samples were collected from 124 lactating cows from the same herd in the period between the 2nd week after calving and the 10th week postpartum. They were classified by bacterial culture and the California mastitis test (CMT) as positive were deemed to have glands with SCM, and the periodic incidence rate of SCM was 26.6%. The most common bacterial isolates from SCM cases were Staphylococcus aureus (47%) and coagulase negative Staphylococci (CNS) (27%). The mean level of MDA and activities of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) were significantly higher in SCM milk than in normal milk, while the mean activity of glutathione peroxidase (GPx) was significantly lower in SCM milk than in normal milk. There were no differences in the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) between normal milk and SCM milk. Therefore, the measurement of milk MDA level and GPx, LDH and ALP activities, appears to be a suitable diagnostic method for identifying SCM in dairy cows.Key words: Subclinical mastitis, mastitis diagnostic, etiology, malonaldehyde (MDA), enzym

The Attractiveness of Ports in West Africa: Some Lessons from Shipping Lines' Port Selection

This paper investigates the attractiveness of ports in West Africa through the development of a container shipping lines' port choice methodology. Although many multi-criteria decision-making methods have been developed and applied to facilitate a rational port choice process, few have investigated the criteria used by shipping lines when selecting ports in West Africa. With the rapid economic development of West Africa, the task of establishing a rational model to guide shipping lines to choose their favourite ports in the region becomes urgent. In this work, 16 criteria are identified to assist shipping lines in port choice from four perspectives including adequate infrastructure, port location, port charge, and port administration/port efficiency. In order to quantitatively evaluate these criteria, an analytical hierarchy process approach is used to make use of subjective judgements to compensate the incompleteness of objective data. One of the important findings from this study is that port infrastructure is the most crucial criterion in terms of the port attractiveness in West Africa. It is followed by port draught, political stability, market size/cargo volume, and international networks. The research outcomes also indicate that the port of Abidjan is the most attractive container port in West Africa, followed by Dakar when all the identified important criteria are taken into account