Implications of return predictability for consumption dynamics and asset pricing

Two broad classes of consumption dynamics—long-run risks and rare disasters—have proven successful in explaining the equity premium puzzle when used in conjunction with recursive preferences. We show that bounds a-là Gallant, Hansen, and Tauchen that restrict the volatility of the stochastic discount factor by conditioning on a set of return predictors constitute a useful tool to discriminate between these alternative dynamics. In particular, we document that models that rely on rare disasters meet comfortably the bounds independently of the forecasting horizon and the asset returns used to construct the bounds. However, the specific nature of disasters is a relevant characteristic at the 1-year horizon: disasters that unfold over multiple years are more successful in meeting the predictors-based bounds than one-period disasters. Instead, at the 5-year horizon, the sole presence of disasters—even if one-period and permanent—is sufficient for the model to satisfy the bounds. Finally, the bounds point to multiple volatility components in consumption as a promising dimension for long-run risk models

Characterization of two novel HIV-1 second-generation recombinants (CRF01_AE/CRF07_BC) identified in Hebei Province, China

IntroductionThe unique recombinant forms (URFs) of HIV-1 consist of a mixture of subtypes, and each URF has a unique breakpoint. In this study, we identified the near fulllength genome (NFLG) sequences of two novel HIV-1 URFs (Sample ID: BDD034A and BDL060) isolated during HIV-1 molecular surveillance in 2022 in Baoding city, Hebei Province, China.MethodsThe two sequences were aligned with subtype reference sequences and CRFs from China using MAFFT v7.0, and the alignments were adjusted manually using BioEdit (v7.2.5.0). Phylogenetic and subregion trees were constructed using MEGA11 with the neighbor-joining (N-J) method. Recombination breakpoints were identified by SimPlot (v3.5.1) based on Bootscan analyses.ResultsRecombinant breakpoint analysis revealed that the NFLGs of BDD034A and BDL060 were composed of CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC, containing seven segments, respectively. For BDD034A, three CRF01_AE fragments were inserted into the CRF07_BC main framework, whereas for BDL060, three CRF07_BC fragments were inserted into the CRF01_AE main framework.DiscussionThe emergence of the CRF01_AE/CRF07_BC recombinant strains indicates that HIV-1 co-infection is common. The increasing genetic complexity of the HIV-1 epidemic in China warrants continued investigation

In situ Chromatin Interaction Analysis Using Paired-End Tag Sequencing.

Chromatin Interaction Analysis Using Paired-End Tag Sequencing (ChIA-PET) is an established method to map protein-mediated chromatin interactions. A limitation, however, is that it requires a hundred million cells per experiment, which hampers its broad application in biomedical research, particularly in studies in which it is impractical to obtain a large number of cells from rare samples. To reduce the required input cell number while retaining high data quality, we developed an in situ ChIA-PET protocol, which requires as few as 1 million cells. Here, we describe detailed step-by-step procedures for performing in situ ChIA-PET from cultured cells, including both an experimental protocol for sample preparation and data generation and a computational protocol for data processing and visualization using the ChIA-PIPE pipeline. As the protocol significantly simplifies the experimental procedure, reduces ligation noise, and decreases the required input of cells compared to previous versions of ChIA-PET protocols, it can be applied to generate high-resolution chromatin contact maps mediated by various protein factors for a wide range of human and mouse primary cells. © 2021 The Authors. Current Protocols published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. Basic Protocol 1: Sample preparation and data generation Support Protocol: Bridge linker preparation Basic Protocol 2: Data processing and visualization

Implications of return predictability for consumption dynamics and asset pricing

Two broad classes of consumption dynamics—long-run risks and rare disasters—have proven successful in explaining the equity premium puzzle when used in conjunction with recursive preferences. We show that bounds a-là Gallant, Hansen, and Tauchen that restrict the volatility of the stochastic discount factor by conditioning on a set of return predictors constitute a useful tool to discriminate between these alternative dynamics. In particular, we document that models that rely on rare disasters meet comfortably the bounds independently of the forecasting horizon and the asset returns used to construct the bounds. However, the specific nature of disasters is a relevant characteristic at the 1-year horizon: disasters that unfold over multiple years are more successful in meeting the predictors-based bounds than one-period disasters. Instead, at the 5-year horizon, the sole presence of disasters—even if one-period and permanent—is sufficient for the model to satisfy the bounds. Finally, the bounds point to multiple volatility components in consumption as a promising dimension for long-run risk models

Demographics and the behavior of interest rates

Interest rates are very persistent. Modelling the persistent component of interest rates has important consequences for forecasting. Factor models of the term structure are restricted VAR models that project over a long-horizon the one-period risk free rate to obtain yields at longer horizon as the sum of the expected future monetary policy and the term premia. The included factors are typically mean reverting and the equilibrium real rates are considered constant (think, for example, of the standard Taylor-rule), partial adjustments to equilibrium yields are then used to rationalize the persistence in observed data. As a result the empirical models feature a very high level of persistence that makes long-horizon predictions inherently inaccurate. This paper relates the common persistent component of the U.S. term structure of interest rates to the age composition of population. The composition of age structure determines the equilibrium rate in the monetary policy rule and therefore the persistent component in one-period yields. Fluctuations in demographics are then transmitted to the whole term structure via the expected policy rate components. We build an a¢ ne term structure model (ATSM) which exploits demographic information to capture the dynamics of yields and produce useful forecasts of bond yields and excess returns that provides economic value for long-term investors

Demographics and The Behaviour of Interest Rates

In this paper we relate the very persistent component of interest rates to a specific demographic variable, MYt, the proportion of middle-aged to young population. We first reconsider the results in Fama (2006) to document how MYt captures the long run component identified by Fama in his analysis of the one-year spot rate. Using MYt to model this low frequency component of interest rates is particularly useful for forecasting the term structure as the demographic variable is exogenous and highly predictable, even at very long horizons. We then study the forecasting performance of a no-arbitrage affine term structure model that allows for the presence of a persistent component driven by demographics. This performance is superior to that of a traditional affine term structure model with macroeconomic factors (e.g. Ang, Dong and Piazzesi, 2005).

Simplified Calculation Method for Active Anti-Floating of Elliptical Basements by Relief Wells

Currently, there are two main types of anti-floating methods for underground structures; one is the passive anti-floating method represented by anti-draft piles, the other is the active anti-floating method which focuses on interceptor-discharge pressure-reducing (IDPR). In the design of an IDPR anti-floating system, the relief well system situated within the cut-off wall serves as the primary drainage channel. The determination of the seepage field distribution within the multi-well system is vital for the overall design. For the seepage field analysis of the IDPR anti-floating multi-well system, currently numerical analysis is usually used, and there is a lack of simplified analysis methods. The simplified analysis methods already available are based on the uniform distribution of wells in circular pits, while the conversion of non-circular pits into circular pits produce large errors, which are not conducive to promoting the use of the method. To address this, we propose a simplified calculation approach suitable for multi-well systems (arbitrary layout) within elliptical pits. The analytical solution of non-uniformly distributed wells in circular pits is deduced through the principle of superposition. Then, the ellipse is mapped into a circle by using conformal mapping. The resistance coefficient method is adopted, and the internal and external seepage fields are connected in series to obtain the total flow rate, as well as the distribution of the seepage field. This is based on the consideration of the permeability of the waterproof curtains and the bypassing seepage. According to the verification of the calculation example, the results of the simplified algorithm are similar to the results of the finite element method, which proves the accuracy of the method; at the same time, when applied to the actual engineering, the obtained calculation results coincide with the measured data, which proves the practicability and reliability of the method. The simplified method can provide an effective way to design an IDPR anti-floating system

Simultaneous Manipulation of the Temporal and Spatial Behaviors of Nanosecond Laser Based on Hybrid Q-Switching

A hybrid Q-switching method based on a special-shaped saturated absorber was proposed for simultaneous manipulation of the temporal and spatial behaviors of a solid-state pulse laser. The temporal–spatial rate equation model of the laser was given and used to optimize the design parameter of the saturated absorber. Best spatial intensity homogenization performance can be expected using an active-passive hybrid Q-switched laser, comprising a Pockels cell and a cylinder Cr:YAG crystal with one end cut as a spherical concave surface. The optimized laser pulse width could be narrowed to 2.39 ns and the laser radial intensity distribution became quasi-super-Gaussian distribution with a radial intensity distribution ratio of 0.91, while that for the Gaussian beam was 0.84. In principle, the laser coherence can be maintained, and the laser spatial intensity distribution can be kept in a long propagation distance