THE MAKING OF THE TURKISH FINANCIAL CRISIS

There can be little doubt that at the turn of the century the Turkish economy was in need of an urgent stabilization in order to halt a treacherous process of high and volatile inflation, unsustainable public debt accumulation, and increasing financial fragility, resulting from irresponsible policies and lack of fiscal discipline that had been endemic under various governments since the early 1980s. However, the stabilization program formulated and launched with strong support from the IMF failed to deliver its promises, plunging the economy into an unprecedented crisis, in large part because of serious shortcomings in its design as well as in crisis intervention which appears to have drawn no useful lessons from the recent bouts of crises in emerging markets.

The Global Economic Crisis and Trade and Growth Prospects in East Asia

The global economic crisis has revealed that growth in East Asia is highly vulnerable to slowdown in exports to major advanced economies. This paper shows that in precrisis years, at least one third of growth in the People's Republic of China was due to exports, and this proportion was even higher in most other East Asian economies. In the coming years the region may not be able to go back to rapid export-led growth because of sluggish growth and high unemployment in advanced economies, and the need to reduce trade imbalances in order to secure global stability and avoid frictions in the trading system. It will be necessary not only to rebalance domestic and external components of demand, but also to embark on industrial restructuring necessitated by a shift from export-led growth to growth led by domestic demand and intraregional trade

Analysis of forest product trade relationships between Turkey and European Union member states

The countries have needed to strengthen their trade relationships in the face of increasing competition conditions with globalization and a lot of unions emerged all over the world. The European Union, remaining in the foreground as an economical, commercial and political factor in these unions, possesses considerable influence, which a lot of countries want to be involved in. Turkey, being in the European integration process, looks for a place in European Union (EU) with its own resources and production power. Production and foreign trade data of the forest products industry, being among Turkey’s important sectors, were compared with 25 different EU countries by using hierarchical cluster analysis, and Turkey’s trade relationship was determined. The production amounts, import and exportamounts and the values, between 2002 and 2006, belonging to the EU member countries and Turkey were used. It has been found that all countries could be divided into nine different groups according tocountries’ forest products industry structures. Competition advantage is experienced in the board sector but not in the paper and lumber sectors. The forest products industry sectors of Turkey have the capacity to compete with EU countries

Examination of forest products trade between Turkey and European Union countries with gravity model approach

The success of getting in the foreign trade forms one of the basic stones of economic development for countries. The current and potential trading volume among countries and determining the main factors affecting trade are quite important. The trade currents of the European Union (EU) countries and Turkey in the forest products industry field were analyzed by the gravity model in this study. For this reason, the panel data method was used for 2000 - 2006 periods. The results show the existence of a high degree of trade integration between Turkey and EU. The estimated gravity models explained 63% of the variation regarding the volume of bilateral trade flows in the EU and Turkey. Furthermore, it was determined that GDP had a positive effect on the amount of foreign trade while distance had a negativeeffect; and Turkey has lower trading volume with the EU countries than its potential regarding the forest products industry field

China and the crisis : global power, domestic caution and local initiative

Even though the global crisis had a quick and dramatic impact on Chinese exports, the Chinese government responded with a range of policy responses that have helped maintain high rates of growth. This success has helped propel China to the centre of global politics, accelerating what many perceive to be a power shift from the West to China. But these gains were achieved by reversing policy in previous years designed to make a fundamental shift in China‟s mode of development, and have highlighted the problems associated with making such a transition. At the moment that many are looking at the Chinese "model" as a potential alternative to the Washington Consensus, one of the consequences of the crisis is to further question the long term efficacy of this "model" in China itself

Financial and capital account liberalisation, financial development and economic development: a review of some recent contributions

This article presents a review of some recent contributions on the relation between global finance and economic development in emerging economies. It first, stresses the growing consensus among economists on the financial instability that financial and capital account liberalization can possibly cause in emerging economies. It then outlines and compares two alternative strategies to tame such instability. The comparison is between the “good-institutions need-to-come-first” approach put forward by some mainstream economists, and the request for a deeper reform of the existing monetary system advocated by heterodox economists

Multi-messenger model for the starburst galaxy M82

In this paper, a consistent model of the multifrequency emission of the starburst galaxy M82, from radio to gamma-rays is presented and discussed. Predictions for observations with Fermi, MAGIC II/VERITAS and CTA telescopes are made. The model is also used to self-consistenty compute the (all flavors) emission of neutrinos resulting from this starburst galaxy, what can be used in considerations of the diffuse contributions of such objects.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Paleoseismic History of the Dead Sea Fault Zone

International audienceThe aim of this entry is to describe the DSF as a transform plate boundary pointing out the rate of activedeformation, fault segmentation, and geometrical complexities as a control of earthquake ruptures. Thedistribution of large historical earthquakes from a revisited seismicity catalogue using detailedmacroseismic maps allows the correlation between the location of past earthquakes and fault segments.The recent results of paleoearthquake investigations (paleoseismic and archeoseismic) with a recurrenceinterval of large events and long-term slip rate are presented and discussed along with the identification ofseismic gaps along the fault. Finally, the implications for the seismic hazard assessment are also discussed