Model Performance Evaluation for Real-time Flood Forecasting

Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchive

An ocean coupling potential intensity index for tropical cyclones

© American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 40 (2013): 1878–1882, doi:10.1002/grl.50091.Timely and accurate forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs, i.e., hurricanes and typhoons) are of great importance for risk mitigation. Although in the past two decades there has been steady improvement in track prediction, improvement on intensity prediction is still highly challenging. Cooling of the upper ocean by TC-induced mixing is an important process that impacts TC intensity. Based on detail in situ air-deployed ocean and atmospheric measurement pairs collected during the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign, we modify the widely used Sea Surface Temperature Potential Intensity (SST_PI) index by including information from the subsurface ocean temperature profile to form a new Ocean coupling Potential Intensity (OC_PI) index. Using OC_PI as a TC maximum intensity predictor and applied to a 14 year (1998–2011) western North Pacific TC archive, OC_PI reduces SST_PI-based overestimation of archived maximum intensity by more than 50% and increases the correlation of maximum intensity estimation from r2 = 0.08 to 0.31. For slow-moving TCs that cause the greatest cooling, r2 increases to 0.56 and the root-mean square error in maximum intensity is 11 m s−1. As OC_PI can more realistically characterize the ocean contribution to TC intensity, it thus serves as an effective new index to improve estimation and prediction of TC maximum intensity.This work is supported by Taiwan’s National Science Council and National Taiwan University (grant numbers: NSC 101- 2111-M-002-002-MY2; NSC 101-2628-M-002-001-MY4; 102R7803) and US Office of Naval Research (ONR) under the Impact of Typhoons on Pacific (ITOP) program. PB’s support is provided by ONR under PE 0601153N through NRL Contract N00173-10-C-6019

Measurement of Lagrangian velocity in fully developed turbulence

We have developed a new experimental technique to measure the Lagrangian velocity of tracer particles in a turbulent flow, based on ultrasonic Doppler tracking. This method yields a direct access to the velocity of a single particule at a turbulent Reynolds number $R_{\lambda} = 740$. Its dynamics is analyzed with two decades of time resolution, below the Lagrangian correlation time. We observe that the Lagrangian velocity spectrum has a Lorentzian form $E^{L}(\omega) = u_{rms}^{2} T_{L} / (1 + (T_{L}\omega)^{2})$, in agreement with a Kolmogorov-like scaling in the inertial range. The probability density function (PDF) of the velocity time increments displays a change of shape from quasi-Gaussian a integral time scale to stretched exponential tails at the smallest time increments. This intermittency, when measured from relative scaling exponents of structure functions, is more pronounced than in the Eulerian framework.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures. to appear in PR

Stability of Transonic Shock Solutions for One-Dimensional Euler-Poisson Equations

In this paper, both structural and dynamical stabilities of steady transonic shock solutions for one-dimensional Euler-Poission system are investigated. First, a steady transonic shock solution with supersonic backgroumd charge is shown to be structurally stable with respect to small perturbations of the background charge, provided that the electric field is positive at the shock location. Second, any steady transonic shock solution with the supersonic background charge is proved to be dynamically and exponentially stable with respect to small perturbation of the initial data, provided the electric field is not too negative at the shock location. The proof of the first stability result relies on a monotonicity argument for the shock position and the downstream density, and a stability analysis for subsonic and supersonic solutions. The dynamical stability of the steady transonic shock for the Euler-Poisson equations can be transformed to the global well-posedness of a free boundary problem for a quasilinear second order equation with nonlinear boundary conditions. The analysis for the associated linearized problem plays an essential role

Effect of shunted piezoelectric control for tuning piezoelectric power harvesting system responses – Analytical techniques

This paper presents new analytical modelling of shunt circuit control responses for tuning electromechanical piezoelectric vibration power harvesting structures with proof mass offset. For this combination, the dynamic closed-form boundary value equations reduced from strong form variational principles were developed using the extended Hamiltonian principle to formulate the new coupled orthonormalised electromechanical power harvesting equations showing combinations of the mechanical system (dynamical behaviour of piezoelectric structure), electromechanical system (electrical piezoelectric response) and electrical system (tuning and harvesting circuits). The reduced equations can be further formulated to give the complete forms of new electromechanical multi-mode FRFs and time waveform of the standard AC-DC circuit interface. The proposed technique can demonstrate self-adaptive harvesting response capabilities for tuning the frequency band and the power amplitude of the harvesting devices. The self-adaptive tuning strategies are demonstrated by modelling the shunt circuit behaviour of the piezoelectric control layer in order to optimise the harvesting piezoelectric layer during operation under input base excitation. In such situations, with proper tuning parameters the system performance can be substantially improved. Moreover, the validation of the closed-form technique is also provided by developing the Ritz method-based weak form analytical approach giving similar results. Finally, the parametric analytical studies have been explored to identify direct and relevant contributions for vibration power harvesting behaviours

The afterglow and kilonova of the short GRB 160821B

GRB 160821B is a short duration gamma-ray burst (GRB) detected and localized by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory in the outskirts of a spiral galaxy at z=0.1613, at a projected physical offset of 16 kpc from the galaxy's center. We present X-ray, optical/nIR and radio observations of its counterpart and model them with two distinct components of emission: a standard afterglow, arising from the interaction of the relativistic jet with the surrounding medium, and a kilonova, powered by the radioactive decay of the sub-relativistic ejecta. Broadband modeling of the afterglow data reveals a weak reverse shock propagating backward into the jet, and a likely jet-break at 3.5 d. This is consistent with a structured jet seen slightly off-axis while expanding into a low-density medium. Analysis of the kilonova properties suggests a rapid evolution toward red colors, similar to AT2017gfo, and a low nIR luminosity, possibly due to the presence of a long-lived neutron star. The global properties of the environment, the inferred low mass (M_ej < 0.006 Msun) and velocities (v > 0.05 c) of lanthanide-rich ejecta are consistent with a binary neutron star merger progenitor.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, MNRAS, in press. Moderate revision, added Figure 5 and X-ray data to Table