Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC–SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40–60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management

Transatlantic Tsunami from Canary to the Caribbean

International audienceTsunamis are among the most deadliest threat of coastal areas and a large number of tropical island are exposed because of their proximity to potential tsunami sources. However, far field sources may represent a threat and thus can not totally be eluded. In the framework of the project C3AF which studies the consequences of climate changes over the French West Indies, we used the numerical model SCHISM (ZHANG et al., 2016) to simulate several potential tsunamis propagation as well as their impacts over the Guadeloupe Island (French West Indies). In this study, we present the simulation of a potential tsunami scenario based on the collapse of the Cumbre Viera volcano, in the Canary Islands (ABADIE et al., 2012) to assess the potential threat of the Guadeloupe archipelago. Several scenario have been simulated and time arrival, wave heights and potential inundation are investigated

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

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Seasonal modulation of M2 tide in the Northern Bay of Bengal

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Present‐day subsidence in the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna Delta: eastern amplification of the Holocene sediment loading contribution

International audienceThe subsidence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (GBMD) drastically increases the adverse impacts of coastal flooding and exacerbates the vulnerability of populations from ongoing rapid sea level rise. We focus here on estimating the present-day subsidence rates induced by the loading of sediments continuously deposited within the GBMD over the past 11,000 years. By constructing a realistic GBMD 3-D numerical model with laterally variable mantle and lithospheric structure, we demonstrate for the first time that the presence of the strong Indian Craton and the weakened Indo-Burma margin results in significant amplification of subsidence driven by sediment loading in the eastern part of the delta, where the population density is the highest (>1,000 habitants per km 2). Although uncertainties remain regarding the amplitude of subsidence, the rate estimates (2-3 mm/year) are found to be comparable to the present-day global mean sea level rise

Data for: Identification of hindered internal rotational mode for complex chemical species: A data mining approach with multivariate logistic regression model

The "Dataset_HIR" folder contains the data to reproduce the results of the data mining approach proposed in the manuscript titled "Identification of hindered internal rotational mode for complex chemical species: A data mining approach with multivariate logistic regression model". More specifically, the folder contains the raw electronic structure calculation input data provided by the domain experts as well as the training and testing dataset with the extracted features. The "Dataset_HIR" folder contains the following subfolders namely: 1. Electronic structure calculation input data: contains the electronic structure calculation input generated by the Gaussian program 1.1. Testing data: contains the raw data of all training species (each is stored in a separate folder) used for extracting dataset for training and validation phases. 1.2. Testing data: contains the raw data of all testing species (each is stored in a separate folder) used for extracting data for the testing phase. 2. Dataset 2.1. Training dataset: used to produce the results in Tables 3 and 4 in the manuscript + datasetTrain_raw.csv: contains the features for all vibrational modes associated with corresponding labeled species to let the chemists select the Hindered Internal Rotor from the list easily for the training and validation steps. + datasetTrain.csv: refines the datasetTrain_raw.csv where the names of the species are all removed to transform the dataset into an appropriate form for the modeling and validation steps. 2.2. Testing dataset: used to produce the results of the data mining approach in Table 5 in the manuscript. + datasetTest_raw.csv: contains the features for all vibrational modes of each labeled species to let the chemists select the Hindered Internal Rotor from the list for the testing step. + datasetTest.csv: refines the datasetTest_raw.csv where the names of the species are all removed to transform the dataset into an appropriate form for the testing step. Note for the Result feature in the dataset: 1 is for the mode needed to be treated as Hindered Internal Rotor, and 0 otherwise

Contributions of a Strengthened Early Holocene Monsoon and Sediment Loading to Present-Day Subsidence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

International audienceThe contribution of subsidence to relative sea level rise in the Ganges‐Brahmaputra delta (GBD) is largely unknown and may considerably enhance exposure of the Bengal Basin populations to sea level rise and storm surges. This paper focuses on estimating the present‐day subsidence induced by Holocene sediment in the Bengal Basin and by oceanic loading due to eustatic sea level rise over the past 18 kyr. Using a viscoelastic Earth model and sediment deposition history based on in situ measurements, results suggest that massive sediment influx initiated in the early Holocene under a strengthened South Asian monsoon may have contributed significantly to the present‐day subsidence of the GBD. We estimate that the Holocene loading generates up to 1.6 mm/yr of the present‐day subsidence along the GBD coast, depending on the rheological model of the Earth. This rate is close to the twentieth century global mean sea level rise (1.1–1.7 mm/yr). Thus, past climate change, by way of enhanced sedimentation, is impacting vulnerability of the GBD populations

Contributions of a strengthened early Holocene monsoon and sediment loading to present-day subsidence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

The contribution of subsidence to relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta (GBD) is largely unknown and may considerably enhance exposure of the Bengal basin populations to sea level rise and storm surges. This paper focuses on estimating the present-day subsidence induced by Holocene sediment in the Bengal basin and by oceanic loading due to eustatic sea level rise over the past 18 kyr. Using a viscoelastic Earth model and sediment deposition history based on in-situ measurements, results suggest that massive sediment influx initiated in the early Holocene under a strengthened South Asian monsoon may have contributed significantly to the present-day subsidence of the GBD. We estimate that the Holocene loading generates up to 1.6 mm/yr of the present-day subsidence along the GBD coast, depending on the rheological model of the Earth. This rate is close to the 20th century global mean sea level rise (1.1-1.7 mm/yr). Thus, past climate change, by way of enhanced sedimentation, is impacting vulnerability of the GBD populations

Impact of Land Subsidence on Extreme Sea Levels and Floodings in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

International audienceThe Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (GBMD) is a densely populated region regularly suffering from severe floodings. Several studies explored the impact on the future coastal floodings in the GBMD due to sea level rise, changes in the weather conditions and the tidal cycle. However, effect of land subsidence on future extreme sea levels in the GBMD, although widely recognized, has not yet been assessed quantitatively. Available estimates of the GBMD subsidence vary a lot and reveal a broad variety of subsidence drivers operating at very different space- and time-scales. Rates of the present-day GBMD subsidence induced by sediment loading alone were evaluated recently to range between 1 and 3 mm/yr which is comparable to, or larger than, the rate of the mean global sea level rise over the past century. This study is to analyze the consequences of land subsidence on changes of sea level extremes and floodings along the GBMD coast during the 21th century. We used (1) subsidence patterns derived from combination of satellite altimetry and tide gauge records and (2) those simulated by the Earth sediment loading models. By combining the subsidence patterns with climate-driven absolute sea level rise and changing weather conditions we demonstrate that not only the land subsidence increases significantly amplitude and frequency of sea level extremes but also it makes the eastern and western parts of the GBMD to react rather differently to the ongoing climate changes