Intertemporal Relation Between The Expected Return And Risk: An Evaluation Of Emerging Market

This paper explores the intertemporal relationship between the expected return and risk in Chinese exchange market. We investigate the characterization of time-series variation in conditional variance and capture the cross-sectional correlation among equity portfolios by incorporating multivariate GARCH-M model with dynamic conditional covariance (DCC). Restricting the slope to be the same across risky assets, the risk-return coefficient is estimated to be positive and highly significant. In addition, the estimates of portfolio-specific slopes provide evidence to support the robustness across different portfolio formations. Our findings, in the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) framework, reveal that the risk premium induced by the conditional covariation of equity portfolio with the market portfolio remain positive after controlling for risk premia induced by conditional covariation with Fama French benchmark factors (HML and SMB). The SMB factor might provide a significant predictive power to hedge against market risk. However, four indices of alternative investments are not consistently priced in the ICAPM framework

Winner versus Loser: Time-Varying Performance And Dynamic Conditional Correlation

Using multi-factor models in OLS and GARCH-M methodology, this paper provides a cross-sectional and time-series investigation of conditional and unconditional expected returns of real REITs index momentum portfolios against real estate property, large-cap stock small-cap stock, and bond index in USA. The expected returns and dynamic conditional correlations between REITs and those of other financial and tangible assets vary in period 1989-2010. REITs returns exhibit a higher correlation with up move of financial market, but a lower correlation in market downturns. REITs may possibly provide diversification benefits to multi-asset investment portfolio. We find that the performances of momentum returns are different from the NAREIT index, and display asymmetric volatility as well. Additionally, we find evidence that REITs momentum returns are varying between winner and loser by Wald test. The results of regressions also indicate that REITs return exhibits the greater sensitivity to large- and small-cap stock index, and less closely with those of bond and real estate index. The results also suggest that REITs not be viewed as a complete substitute for investment in tangible property of real estate

Learning biological neuronal networks with artificial neural networks: neural oscillations

First-principles-based modelings have been extremely successful in providing crucial insights and predictions for complex biological functions and phenomena. However, they can be hard to build and expensive to simulate for complex living systems. On the other hand, modern data-driven methods thrive at modeling many types of high-dimensional and noisy data. Still, the training and interpretation of these data-driven models remain challenging. Here, we combine the two types of methods to model stochastic neuronal network oscillations. Specifically, we develop a class of first-principles-based artificial neural networks to provide faithful surrogates to the high-dimensional, nonlinear oscillatory dynamics produced by neural circuits in the brain. Furthermore, when the training data set is enlarged within a range of parameter choices, the artificial neural networks become generalizable to these parameters, covering cases in distinctly different dynamical regimes. In all, our work opens a new avenue for modeling complex neuronal network dynamics with artificial neural networks.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figure

HDAC3 is crucial in shear- and VEGF-induced stem cell differentiation toward endothelial cells

Reendothelialization involves endothelial progenitor cell (EPC) homing, proliferation, and differentiation, which may be influenced by fluid shear stress and local flow pattern. This study aims to elucidate the role of laminar flow on embryonic stem (ES) cell differentiation and the underlying mechanism. We demonstrated that laminar flow enhanced ES cell–derived progenitor cell proliferation and differentiation into endothelial cells (ECs). Laminar flow stabilized and activated histone deacetylase 3 (HDAC3) through the Flk-1–PI3K–Akt pathway, which in turn deacetylated p53, leading to p21 activation. A similar signal pathway was detected in vascular endothelial growth factor–induced EC differentiation. HDAC3 and p21 were detected in blood vessels during embryogenesis. Local transfer of ES cell–derived EPC incorporated into injured femoral artery and reduced neointima formation in a mouse model. These data suggest that shear stress is a key regulator for stem cell differentiation into EC, especially in EPC differentiation, which can be used for vascular repair, and that the Flk-1–PI3K–Akt–HDAC3–p53–p21 pathway is crucial in such a process

Real-time stability of a hepatitis E vaccine (Hecolin®) demonstrated with potency assays and multifaceted physicochemical methods

The first prophylactic vaccine against hepatitis E virus (HEV), Hecolin®, was licensed in China. Recombinant p239 virus-like particle (VLP) is its active component with dimeric protein as the basic building block harboring the immuno dominant and neutralizing epitopes. The real time and real condition stability of the prefilled syringes for the vaccine was demonstrated using both in vivo mouse potency and in vitro antigenicity assays. A total of 12 lots of Hecolin® were assessed with a set of assays after storage at 2-8 °C for 24 months. The particle characteristics of p239 VLP recovered from the aluminum-containing adjuvant was assessed with different methods including analytical ultracentrifugation, high performance size exclusion chromatography and transmission electron microscopy. The thermal and conformational stability of the adsorbed antigen was assessed using differential scanning calorimetry. The protein integrity of the recovered p239 antigen was demonstrated using SDS-PAGE with silvering staining, LC-MS and MALDI-TOF MS. Most importantly, the binding activity to the neutralizing antibody or vaccine antigenicity was measured using an epitope-specific and real-time SPR assay and a monoclonal antibody-based sandwich ELISA. Taken together, the overall good stability of the Hecolin® prefilled syringes was demonstrated with unaltered molecular and functional attributes after storage at 2-8 °C for 24 months

Construction of a cross-species cell landscape at single-cell level.

Individual cells are basic units of life. Despite extensive efforts to characterize the cellular heterogeneity of different organisms, cross-species comparisons of landscape dynamics have not been achieved. Here, we applied single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) to map organism-level cell landscapes at multiple life stages for mice, zebrafish and Drosophila. By integrating the comprehensive dataset of > 2.6 million single cells, we constructed a cross-species cell landscape and identified signatures and common pathways that changed throughout the life span. We identified structural inflammation and mitochondrial dysfunction as the most common hallmarks of organism aging, and found that pharmacological activation of mitochondrial metabolism alleviated aging phenotypes in mice. The cross-species cell landscape with other published datasets were stored in an integrated online portal-Cell Landscape. Our work provides a valuable resource for studying lineage development, maturation and aging

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Study on spatial distribution of crop residue burning and PM2.5 change in China

With China as the study area, MODIS MOD14A1 and MCD12Q1 products were used to derive daily crop residue burning spots from 2014 to 2015. After vectorization of crop residue burning pixels and with the use of fishnet, burning density distribution maps were eventually completed. Meanwhile, the daily air quality data from 150 cities in 2014 and 285 cities in 2015 were used to obtain daily and monthly PM2.5 distribution maps with the Kriging interpolation. The results indicate that crop residue burning occurs in a seasonal pattern, and its spatial distribution is closely related to farming activities. The annual PM2.5 in China decreased 11.81% from 2014 to 2015, and the distribution of PM2.5 in China's east and north is always higher than in China's west and south. Furthermore, the changes in PM2.5 exhibit a hysteresis after crop residue burning in summer and autumn-winter. Regarding summer crop residue burning in China's middle east, the r between crop residue burning spots and PM2.5 is 0.6921 (P < 0.01) in 2014 and 0.5620 (P < 0.01) in 2015, while the correlation coefficient of autumn-winter crop residue burning in China's northeast is slightly lower with an r of 0.5670 (P < 0.01) in 2014 and 0.6213 (P < 0.01) in 2015. In autumn-winter, crop residue burning can induce evident PM2.5 increase in China's northeast, and that is more obvious than summer crop residue burning in China's middle east. Furthermore, when data of summer and autumn-winter crop residue burning from 2014 to 2015 are compared, we can see that the change in number of crop residue burning spots significant changes PM2.5 in these regions. Both the summer and autumn-winter crop residue burning areas presented spatial consistency with high PM2.5. By contrast, the results from many aspects indicated that the crop residue burning in spring did not cause a notable change of PM2.5

Real-Time Inland CCTV Ship Tracking

The predator algorithm is a representative pioneering work that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several popular visual tracking benchmarks and with great success when commercially applied to real-time face tracking in long-term unconstrained videos. However, there are two major drawbacks of predator algorithm when applied to inland CCTV (closed-circuit television) ship tracking. First, the LK short-term tracker within predator algorithm easily tends to drift if the target ship suffers partial or even full occlusion, mainly because the corner-points-like features employed by LK tracker are very sensitive to occlusion appearance change. Second, the cascaded detector within the predator algorithm searches for candidate objects in a predefined scale set, usually including 3-5 elements, which hampers the tracker to adapt to the potential diverse scale variations of the target ship. In this paper, we design a random projection based short-term tracker which can dramatically ease the tracking drift when the ship is under occlusion. Furthermore, a forward-backward feedback mechanism is proposed to estimate the scale variation between two consecutive frames. We prove that these two strategies gain significant improvements over the predator algorithm and also show that the proposed method outperforms several other state-of-the-art trackers