The association of statin use after cancer diagnosis with survival in pancreatic cancer patients: a SEER-medicare analysis.

BackgroundPancreatic cancer has poor prognosis and existing interventions provide a modest benefit. Statin has anti-cancer properties that might enhance survival in pancreatic cancer patients. We sought to determine whether statin treatment after cancer diagnosis is associated with longer survival in those with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).MethodsWe analyzed data on 7813 elderly patients with PDAC using the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) - Medicare claims files. Information on the type, intensity and duration of statin use after cancer diagnosis was extracted from Medicare Part D. We treated statin as a time-dependent variable in a Cox regression model to determine the association with overall survival adjusting for follow-up, age, sex, race, neighborhood income, stage, grade, tumor size, pancreatectomy, chemotherapy, radiation, obesity, dyslipidemia, diabetes, chronic pancreatitis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).ResultsOverall, statin use after cancer diagnosis was not significantly associated with survival when all PDAC patients were considered (HR = 0.94, 95%CI 0.89, 1.01). However, statin use after cancer diagnosis was associated with a 21% reduced hazard of death (Hazard ratio = 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67, 0.93) in those with grade I or II PDAC and to a similar extent in those who had undergone a pancreatectomy, in those with chronic pancreatitis and in those who had not been treated with statin prior to cancer diagnosis.ConclusionsWe found that statin treatment after cancer diagnosis is associated with enhanced survival in patients with low-grade, resectable PDAC

Do changes in health reveal the possibility of undiagnosed pancreatic cancer? Development of a risk-prediction model based on healthcare claims data.

Background and objectiveEarly detection methods for pancreatic cancer are lacking. We aimed to develop a prediction model for pancreatic cancer based on changes in health captured by healthcare claims data.MethodsWe conducted a case-control study on 29,646 Medicare-enrolled patients aged 68 years and above with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) reported to the Surveillance Epidemiology an End Results (SEER) tumor registries program in 2004-2011 and 88,938 age and sex-matched controls. We developed a prediction model using multivariable logistic regression on Medicare claims for 16 risk factors and pre-diagnostic symptoms of PDAC present within 15 months prior to PDAC diagnosis. Claims within 3 months of PDAC diagnosis were excluded in sensitivity analyses. We evaluated the discriminatory power of the model with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and performed cross-validation by bootstrapping.ResultsThe prediction model on all cases and controls reached AUC of 0.68. Excluding the final 3 months of claims lowered the AUC to 0.58. Among new-onset diabetes patients, the prediction model reached AUC of 0.73, which decreased to 0.63 when claims from the final 3 months were excluded. Performance measures of the prediction models was confirmed by internal validation using the bootstrap method.ConclusionModels based on healthcare claims for clinical risk factors, symptoms and signs of pancreatic cancer are limited in classifying those who go on to diagnosis of pancreatic cancer and those who do not, especially when excluding claims that immediately precede the diagnosis of PDAC

Incidence and risk factors of oral feeding intolerance in acute pancreatitis: Results from an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study

Background: Inability to advance to an oral diet, or oral feeding intolerance, is a common complication in patients with acute pancreatitis associated with worse clinical outcomes. The factors related to oral feeding intolerance are not well studied. Objective: We aimed to determine the incidence and risk factors of oral feeding intolerance in acute pancreatitis. Methods: Patients were prospectively enrolled in the Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies in Clinical Experience, an international acute pancreatitis registry, between 2015 and 2018. Oral feeding intolerance was defined as worsening abdominal pain and/or vomiting after resumption of oral diet. The timing of the initial feeding attempt was stratified based on the day of hospitalization. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess for independent risk factors/predictors of oral feeding intolerance. Results: Of 1233 acute pancreatitis patients included in the study, 160 (13%) experienced oral feeding intolerance. The incidence of oral feeding intolerance was similar irrespective of the timing of the initial feeding attempt relative to hospital admission day (p = 0.41). Patients with oral feeding intolerance were more likely to be younger (45 vs. 50 years of age), men (61% vs. 49%), and active alcohol users (44% vs. 36%). They also had higher blood urea nitrogen (20 vs. 15 mg/dl; p < 0.001) and hematocrit levels (41.7% vs. 40.5%; p = 0.017) on admission; were more likely to have a nonbiliary acute pancreatitis etiology (69% vs. 51%), systemic inflammatory response syndrome of 2 or greater on admission (49% vs. 35%) and at 48 h (50% vs. 26%), develop pancreatic necrosis (29% vs. 13%), moderate to severe acute pancreatitis (41% vs. 24%), and have a longer hospital stay (10 vs. 6 days; all p < 0.04). The adjusted analysis showed that systemic inflammatory response syndrome of 2 or greater at 48 h (odds ratio 3.10; 95% confidence interval 1.83-5.25) and a nonbiliary acute pancreatitis etiology (odds ratio 1.65; 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.69) were independent risk factors for oral feeding intolerance. Conclusion: Oral feeding intolerance occurs in 13% of acute pancreatitis patients and is independently associated with systemic inflammatory response syndrome at 48 h and a nonbiliary etiology

Worldwide Variations in Demographics, Management, and Outcomes of Acute Pancreatitis

Background & Aims Few studies have compared regional differences in acute pancreatitis. We analyzed data from an international registry of patients with acute pancreatitis to evaluate geographic variations in patient characteristics, management, and outcomes. Methods We collected data from the APPRENTICE registry of patients with acute pancreatitis, which obtains information from patients in Europe (6 centers), India (3 centers), Latin America (5 centers), and North America (8 centers) using standardized questionnaires. Our final analysis included 1,612 patients with acute pancreatitis (median age, 49 years; 53% male, 62% white) enrolled from August 2015 through January 2018. Results Biliary (45%) and alcoholic acute pancreatitis (21%) were the most common etiologies. Based on the revised Atlanta classification, 65% of patients developed mild disease, 23% moderate, and 12% severe. The mean age of patients in Europe (58 years) was older than mean age for all 4 regions (46 years) and a higher proportion of patients in Europe had comorbid conditions (73% vs 50% overall). The predominant etiology of acute pancreatitis in Latin America was biliary (78%), whereas alcohol-associated pancreatitis accounted for the highest proportion of acute pancreatitis cases in India (45%). Pain was managed with opioid analgesics in 93% of patients in North America versus 27% of patients in the other 3 regions. Cholecystectomies were performed at the time of hospital admission for most patients in Latin America (60% vs 15% overall). A higher proportion of European patients with severe acute pancreatitis died during the original hospital stay (44%) compared with the other 3 regions (15%). Conclusions We found significant variation in demographics, etiologies, management practices, and outcomes of acute pancreatitis worldwide

Introduction and Validation of a Novel Acute Pancreatitis Digital Tool: Interrogating Large Pooled Data From 2 Prospectively Ascertained Cohorts

Objectives: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden onset, rapidly evolving inflammatory response with systemic inflammation and multiorgan failure (MOF) in a subset of patients. New highly accurate clinical decision support tools are needed to allow local doctors to provide expert care. Methods: Ariel Dynamic Acute Pancreatitis Tracker (ADAPT) is a digital tool to guide physicians in ordering standard tests, evaluate test results and model progression using available data, propose emergent therapies. The accuracy of the severity score calculators was tested using 2 prospectively ascertained Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies in Clinical Experience cohorts (pilot University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, n = 163; international, n = 1544). Results: The ADAPT and post hoc expert-calculated AP severity scores were 100% concordant in both pilot and international cohorts. High-risk criteria of all 4 severity scores at admission were associated with moderately-severe or severe AP and MOF (both P < 0.0001) and prediction of no MOF was 97.8% to 98.9%. The positive predictive value for MOF was 7.5% to 14.9%. Conclusions: The ADAPT tool showed 100% accuracy with AP predictive metrics. Prospective evaluation of ADAPT features is needed to determine if additional data can accurately predict and mitigate severe AP and MOF

Mortality in acute pancreatitis with persistent organ failure is determined by the number, type, and sequence of organ systems affected

Background: Persistent organ failure (POF) is the strongest determinant of mortality in acute pancreatitis (AP). There is a paucity of data regarding the impact of different POF attributes on mortality and the role of different characteristics of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the risk of developing POF. Objective: We aimed to assess the association of POF dynamic features with mortality and SIRS characteristics with POF. Methods: We studied 1544 AP subjects prospectively enrolled at 22 international centers (APPRENTICE consortium). First, we estimated the association of onset, duration, and maximal score of SIRS with POF. Then, we evaluated the risk of mortality based on POF onset, duration, number, type, and sequence of organs affected. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders. Results: 58% had SIRS, 11% developed POF, and 2.5% died. Early SIRS, persistent SIRS, and maximal SIRS score ≥ 3 were independently associated with higher risk of POF (p < 0.05). Mortality risk in POF was higher with two (33%, odds ratio [OR] = 10.8, 3.3-34.9) and three (48%, OR = 20.2, 5.9-68.6) organs failing, in comparison to single POF (4%). In subjects with multiple POF, mortality was higher when the cardiovascular and respiratory systems failed first or concurrently as compared to when the renal system failed first or concurrently with other organ (p < 0.05). In multivariate regression model, the number and sequence of organs affected in POF were associated with mortality (p < 0.05). Onset and duration of POF had no impact mortality. Conclusion: In AP patients with POF, the risk of mortality is influenced by the number, type, and sequence of organs affected. These results are useful for future revisions of AP severity classification systems