A Bayesian Approach to Calibrating Period-Luminosity Relations of RR Lyrae Stars in the Mid-Infrared

A Bayesian approach to calibrating period-luminosity (PL) relations has substantial benefits over generic least-squares fits. In particular, the Bayesian approach takes into account the full prior distribution of the model parameters, such as the a priori distances, and refits these parameters as part of the process of settling on the most highly-constrained final fit. Additionally, the Bayesian approach can naturally ingest data from multiple wavebands and simultaneously fit the parameters of PL relations for each waveband in a procedure that constrains the parameter posterior distributions so as to minimize the scatter of the final fits appropriately in all wavebands. Here we describe the generalized approach to Bayesian model fitting and then specialize to a detailed description of applying Bayesian linear model fitting to the mid-infrared PL relations of RR Lyrae variable stars. For this example application we quantify the improvement afforded by using a Bayesian model fit. We also compare distances previously predicted in our example application to recently published parallax distances measured with the Hubble Space Telescope and find their agreement to be a vindication of our methodology. Our intent with this article is to spread awareness of the benefits and applicability of this Bayesian approach and encourage future PL relation investigations to consider employing this powerful analysis method.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science. Following a presentation at the conference The Fundamental Cosmic Distance Scale: State of the Art and the Gaia Perspective, Naples, May 201

Effect of Acute High-intensity Interval Exercise on Whole-body Fat Oxidation and Subcutaneous Adipose Tissue Cell Signaling in Overweight Women

International Journal of Exercise Science 13(2): 554-566, 2020. Exercise-induced alterations in adipose tissue insulin and/or β-adrenergic signaling may contribute to increases in whole-body fat oxidation following acute exercise. Thus, we examined changes in insulin (Akt, AS160) and β-adrenergic (PKA) signaling proteins in subcutaneous adipose tissue and whole-body fat oxidation in overweight women following acute high-intensity interval exercise (HIIE). Overweight females completed two experimental sessions in a randomized order: 1) control (bed rest) and 2) HIIE (10 x 4 min running intervals at 90% HRmax, 2-min recovery). Subcutaneous abdominal adipose tissue biopsies were obtained from 10 participants before (pre-), immediately (0hr) after (post-), 2hr post-, and 4hr post-exercise. Plasma glucose and insulin levels were assessed in venous blood samples obtained at each biopsy time-point from a different group of 5 participants (BMI-matched to biopsy group). Fat oxidation rates were estimated using the respiratory exchange ratio (RER) in all participants using indirect calorimetry pre-, 2hr post-, and 4hr post-exercise. RER was decreased (p \u3c 0.05) at 2hr post-exercise after HIIE (0.77 ± 0.04) compared to control (0.84 ± 0.04). Despite higher plasma glucose (p \u3c 0.01) and insulin (p \u3c 0.05) levels at 0hr post-exercise versus control, no significant interaction effects were observed for Akt or AS160 phosphorylation (p \u3e 0.05). Phosphorylation of PKA substrates was unaltered in both conditions (p \u3e 0.05). Collectively, altered β-adrenergic and insulin signaling in subcutaneous adnominal adipose tissue does not appear to explain increased whole-body fat oxidation following acute HIIE

Multi-layered Ruthenium-modified Bond Coats for Thermal Barrier Coatings

Diffusional approaches for fabrication of multi-layered Ru-modified bond coats for thermal barrier coatings have been developed via low activity chemical vapor deposition and high activity pack aluminization. Both processes yield bond coats comprising two distinct B2 layers, based on NiAl and RuAl, however, the position of these layers relative to the bond coat surface is reversed when switching processes. The structural evolution of each coating at various stages of the fabrication process has been and subsequent cyclic oxidation is presented, and the relevant interdiffusion and phase equilibria issues in are discussed. Evaluation of the oxidation behavior of these Ru-modified bond coat structures reveals that each B2 interlayer arrangement leads to the formation of α-Al 2 O 3 TGO at 1100°C, but the durability of the TGO is somewhat different and in need of further improvement in both cases

Viability of primordial black holes as short period gamma-ray bursts

It has been proposed that the short period gamma-ray bursts, which occur at a rate of $\sim 10 {\rm yr^{-1}}$, may be evaporating primordial black holes (PBHs). Calculations of the present PBH evaporation rate have traditionally assumed that the PBH mass function varies as $M_{{\rm BH}}^{-5/2}$. This mass function only arises if the density perturbations from which the PBHs form have a scale invariant power spectrum. It is now known that for a scale invariant power spectrum, normalised to COBE on large scales, the PBH density is completely negligible, so that this mass function is cosmologically irrelevant. For non-scale-invariant power spectra, if all PBHs which form at given epoch have a fixed mass then the PBH mass function is sharply peaked around that mass, whilst if the PBH mass depends on the size of the density perturbation from which it forms, as is expected when critical phenomena are taken into account, then the PBH mass function will be far broader than $M_{{\rm BH}}^{-5/2}$. In this paper we calculate the present day PBH evaporation rate, using constraints from the diffuse gamma-ray background, for both of these mass functions. If the PBH mass function has significant finite width, as recent numerical simulations suggest, then it is not possible to produce a present day PBH evaporation rate comparable with the observed short period gamma-ray burst rate. This could also have implications for other attempts to detect evaporating PBHs.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, version to appear in Phys. Rev. D with additional reference

European Stroke Organization and European Society for Swallowing Disorders guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of post-stroke dysphagia

Post-stroke dysphagia (PSD) is present in more than 50% of acute stroke patients, increases the risk of complications, in particular aspiration pneumonia, malnutrition and dehydration, and is linked to poor outcome and mortality. The aim of this guideline is to assist all members of the multidisciplinary team in their management of patients with PSD. These guidelines were developed based on the European Stroke Organisation (ESO) standard operating procedure and followed the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. An interdisciplinary working group identified 20 relevant questions, performed systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the literature, assessed the quality of the available evidence and wrote evidence-based recommendations. Expert opinion was provided if not enough evidence was available to provide recommendations based on the GRADE approach. We found moderate quality of evidence to recommend dysphagia screening in all stroke patients to prevent post-stroke pneumonia and to early mortality and low quality of evidence to suggest dysphagia assessment in stroke patients having been identified at being at risk of PSD. We found low to moderate quality of evidence for a variety of treatment options to improve swallowing physiology and swallowing safety. These options include dietary interventions, behavioural swallowing treatment including acupuncture, nutritional interventions, oral health care, different pharmacological agents and different types of neurostimulation treatment. Some of the studied interventions also had an impact on other clinical endpoints such as feedings status or pneumonia. Overall, further randomized trials are needed to improve the quality of evidence for the treatment of PSD

Large time existence for 3D water-waves and asymptotics

We rigorously justify in 3D the main asymptotic models used in coastal oceanography, including: shallow-water equations, Boussinesq systems, Kadomtsev-Petviashvili (KP) approximation, Green-Naghdi equations, Serre approximation and full-dispersion model. We first introduce a ``variable'' nondimensionalized version of the water-waves equations which vary from shallow to deep water, and which involves four dimensionless parameters. Using a nonlocal energy adapted to the equations, we can prove a well-posedness theorem, uniformly with respect to all the parameters. Its validity ranges therefore from shallow to deep-water, from small to large surface and bottom variations, and from fully to weakly transverse waves. The physical regimes corresponding to the aforementioned models can therefore be studied as particular cases; it turns out that the existence time and the energy bounds given by the theorem are always those needed to justify the asymptotic models. We can therefore derive and justify them in a systematic way.Comment: Revised version of arXiv:math.AP/0702015 (notations simplified and remarks added) To appear in Inventione

Dense, viscous brine behavior in heterogeneous porous medium systems

The behavior of dense, viscous calcium bromide brine solutions used to remediate systems contaminated with dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) is considered in laboratory and field porous medium systems. The density and viscosity of brine solutions are experimentally investigated and functional forms fit over a wide range of mass fractions. A density of 1.7 times, and a corresponding viscosity of 6.3 times, that of water is obtained at a calcium bromide mass fraction of 0.53. A three-dimensional laboratory cell is used to investigate the establishment, persistence, and rate of removal of a stratified dense brine layer in a controlled system. Results from a field-scale experiment performed at the Dover National Test Site are used to investigate the ability to establish and maintain a dense brine layer as a component of a DNAPL recovery strategy, and to recover the brine at sufficiently high mass fractions to support the economical reuse of the brine. The results of both laboratory and field experiments show that a dense brine layer can be established, maintained, and recovered to a significant extent. Regions of unstable density profiles are shown to develop and persist in the field-scale experiment, which we attribute to regions of low hydraulic conductivity. The saturated-unsaturated, variable-density ground-water flow simulation code SUTRA is modified to describe the system of interest, and used to compare simulations to experimental observations and to investigate certain unobserved aspects of these complex systems. The model results show that the standard model formulation is not appropriate for capturing the behavior of sharp density gradients observed during the dense brine experiments

Body condition score, weight variation and reproductive performance of beef cows in rangelands from the Pantanal region

Objetivou-se avaliar a influência do escore de condição corporal (ECC) sobre a eficiência reprodutiva de vacas de cria nos períodos pré e pós-parto e a probabilidade de parição, usando o escore de condição corporal e a variação ponderal no período crítico do ciclo reprodutivo. Utilizaram-se 248 vacas multíparas mantidas em pastagens nativas distribuídas em quatro estratégias de suplementação: mistura mineral (controle); suplemento farelado; suplemento líquido; suplemento líquido para vacas e bezerros. As avaliações de peso e ECC, na escala de 1 a 9, foram realizadas no período crítico: em agosto (período pré-parto, 60-90 dias antes da parição) e em janeiro (período pós-parto e reprodutivo) durante quatro anos consecutivos. Para a análise dos anos consecutivos de reprodução, criou-se um escore de reprodução, ou seja, somou-se o número de parições de cada vaca durante os quatro anos pecuários avaliados. O escore de condição corporal nos períodos pré e pós-parto e a idade da vaca influenciaram o escore de reprodução. Portanto, para avaliação da probabilidade de parição, foram utilizadas todas as vacas, classificadas em paridas e vazias. Utilizando equações de estimação generalizadas (EEG), foi modelada a probabilidade de as matrizes serem classificadas como paridas considerando variáveis exploratórias ao longo do tempo. Para se obter probabilidade de parição superior a 80%, as vacas devem possuir escore de aproximadamente 5,5 no período pré-parto. Aproximadamente 60% das vacas paridas mantiveram ou ganharam peso no período crítico do ano, o que levou a maior probabilidade de reconcepção, similar ao observado para as vacas vazias, porém com probabilidade menor de parição. O período pré-parto é o melhor para estimar a probabilidade de parição das vacas por meio da avaliação do escore corporal. A seleção de vacas adaptadas às condições bioclimáticas do Pantanal aumenta a probabilidade de produção de um bezerro por vaca por ano. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of body condition score (BCS) on reproductive performance of beef cows before and after calving and to evaluate the calving probability using body condition score and weight variation during critical periods of the cow reproductive cycle. From 2001 to 2005, the body condition score was recorded in 248 multiparous cows raised in native pastures, submitted to different supplementation treatments (mineral mixture only - control; dry supplement; liquid supplement and liquid supplement for cow and calves). Weighing and body condition evaluation were made on a 1-9 point scale in August (prepartum period, 60-90 days before parturition) and January (postpartum and reproductive period). A reproduction score was created in function of the body scores in four consecutive years. Except for the treatment, the other factors (body condition score in the prepartum and postpartum periods and cow age) influenced the reproduction score. Thus, the calving probabilities were estimated for all cows. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to evaluate the calving probability in function of the exploratory variables over time. Calving probability higher than 80% was obtained when cows scored 5,5 before calving. In relation to weight, the results showed that about 60% of calving cows maintained or gained weight in the postpartum period, leading to increase in the rebreeding probability. Similar situation occurred with single cows; however, the calving probability was lower. These results indicate that the calving probability using BCS is better estimated before calving. Furthermore, it indicates the presence of cows more adapted to the Pantanal climatic and feeding conditions than others

Flight Mechanics of the Wright Aircraft 1903-1912

Perhaps the most curious aspect of the Wright Brothers' program to invent and commercialize the airplane is their decision in 1900 to use their novel canard configuration, and to persist with that geometry until 1910 despite the known deficiency that the aircraft were unstable in pitch. The reasons for their initial choice are well-known. Several studies in the part twenty years have proven beyond doubt that the Wrights did not intentionally make their canards unstable. The pitch instability of their machine was an unwitting byproduct of their design chosen partly out of fear of the conventional design and partly (they reasoned) for more positive control. With their great emphasis on control, the Wrights were able to develop a successful aircraft, albeit difficult to fly additionally because the 1903 aircraft also possessed a fast spiral instability. A canard design is not necessarily unstable, but owing chiefly to their airfoil, and an unfortunate fore-and-aft mass distribution, the Wright canards were all unstable. Though easier to fly, their 1909 aircraft was more unstable than the famous 1903 FZper and the Brothers did not have a stable design until they finally adopted a conventional aft horizontal tail in 1910. Successful control of the canard aircraft depended heavily on large damping-in-pitch. The purpose of this paper is to apply modern analysis of flight mechanics to trace the detailed flying characteristics of their powered aircraft from 1903 to 1910 when they finally gave up the canard. Its a story in which technology, stubborness and commercialization are intimately mingled; we are concerned here only with the technology. © by 2003