Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland : a computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small

Using individual tracking data to validate the predictions of species distribution models

The authors would like to thank the College of Life Sciences of Aberdeen University and Marine Scotland Science which funded CP's PhD project. Skate tagging experiments were undertaken as part of Scottish Government project SP004. We thank Ian Burrett for help in catching the fish and the other fishermen and anglers who returned tags. We thank José Manuel Gonzalez-Irusta for extracting and making available the environmental layers used as environmental covariates in the environmental suitability modelling procedure. We also thank Jason Matthiopoulos for insightful suggestions on habitat utilization metrics as well as Stephen C.F. Palmer, and three anonymous reviewers for useful suggestions to improve the clarity and quality of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPostprintPostprintPostprintPostprintPostprin

Leu628 of the KIX domain of CBP is a key residue for the interaction with the MLL transactivation domain

AbstractPhysical interaction between the transactivation domain (TAD) of the mixed-lineage leukemia protein (MLL) and the KIX domain of the cyclic-AMP response element binding protein (CREB) binding protein (CBP) is necessary for MLL-mediated transcriptional activation. We show by alanine-scanning mutagenesis that hydrophobic surface residues of KIX, especially L628, are energetically important for binding the MLL TAD. NMR studies of the KIX-L628A mutant suggest that L628 plays a crucial role in conformational transitions at the MLL binding site, necessary for high affinity interactions with MLL. Unexpectedly, MLL also binds to the c-Myb/phosphorylated kinase-inducible domain of CREB (pKID) site of KIX, highlighting the complex nature of interactions involving intrinsically disordered transcriptional activators.Structured summaryMINT-8044564, MINT-8044580, MINT-8044598, MINT-8044616, MINT-8044634, MINT-8044656:Cbp (uniprotkb:P45481) and MLL (uniprotkb:Q03164) bind (MI:0407) by isothermal titration calorimetry (MI:0065)MINT-8044696:Cbp (uniprotkb:P45481) and MLL (uniprotkb:Q03164) bind (MI:0407) by nuclear magnetic resonance (MI:0077

The detection and photometric redshift determination of distant galaxies using SIRTF's Infrared Array Camera

We investigate the ability of the Space Infrared Telescope Facility's Infrared Array Camera to detect distant (z ~ 3)galaxies and measure their photometric redshifts. Our analysis shows that changing the original long wavelength filter specifications provides significant improvements in performance in this and other areas.Comment: 28 pages incl 12 figures; to appear in June 1999 PASP. Fig.12 replaced with corrected versio

Continuous cough monitoring using ambient sound recording during convalescence from a COPD exacerbation

Purpose Cough is common in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is associated with frequent exacerbations and increased mortality. Cough increases during acute exacerbations (AE-COPD), representing a possible metric of clinical deterioration. Conventional cough monitors accurately report cough counts over short time periods. We describe a novel monitoring system which we used to record cough continuously for up to 45 days during AE-COPD convalescence. Methods This is a longitudinal, observational study of cough monitoring in AE-COPD patients discharged from a single teaching-hospital. Ambient sound was recorded from two sites in the domestic environment and analysed using novel cough classifier software. For comparison, the validated hybrid HACC/LCM cough monitoring system was used on days 1, 5, 20 and 45. Patients were asked to record symptoms daily using diaries. Results Cough monitoring data were available for 16 subjects with a total of 568 monitored days. Daily cough count fell significantly from mean±SEM 272.7±54.5 on day 1 to 110.9±26.3 on day 9 (p<0.01) before plateauing. The absolute cough count detected by the continuous monitoring system was significantly lower than detected by the hybrid HACC/LCM system but normalised counts strongly correlated (r=0.88, p<0.01) demonstrating an ability to detect trends. Objective cough count and subjective cough scores modestly correlated (r=0.46). Conclusions Cough frequency declines significantly following AE-COPD and the reducing trend can be detected using continuous ambient sound recording and novel cough classifier software. Objective measurement of cough frequency has the potential to enhance our ability to monitor the clinical state in patients with COPD

A two-way photonic interface for linking Sr+ transition at 422 nm to the telecommunications C-band

We report a single-stage bi-directional interface capable of linking Sr+ trapped ion qubits in a long-distance quantum network. Our interface converts photons between the Sr+ emission wavelength at 422 nm and the telecoms C-band to enable low-loss transmission over optical fiber. We have achieved both up- and down-conversion at the single photon level with efficiencies of 9.4% and 1.1% respectively. Furthermore we demonstrate noise levels that are low enough to allow for genuine quantum operation in the future.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Gold as an inflation hedge?

This paper attempts to reconcile an apparent contradiction between short-run and long-run movements in the price of gold. The theoretical model suggests a set of conditions under which the price of gold rises over time at the general rate of inflation and hence be an effective hedge against inflation. The model also demonstrates that short-run changes in the gold lease rate, the real interest rate, convenience yield, default risk, the covariance of gold returns with other assets and the dollar/world exchange rate can disturb this equilibrium relationship and generate short-run price volatility. Using monthly gold price data (1976-1999), and cointegration regression techniques, an empirical analysis confirms the central hypotheses of the theoretical model

Ancient Chinese methods are remarkably effective for the preparation of artemisinin-rich extracts of Qing Hao with potent antimalarial activity.

yesAncient Chinese herbal texts as far back as the 4th Century Zhou hou bei ji fang describe methods for the use of Qing Hao (Artemisia annua) for the treatment of intermittent fevers. Today, the A. annua constituent artemisinin is an important antimalarial drug and the herb itself is being grown and used locally for malaria treatment although this practice is controversial. Here we show that the ancient Chinese methods that involved either soaking, (followed by wringing) or pounding, (followed by squeezing) the fresh herb are more effective in producing artemisinin-rich extracts than the usual current method of preparing herbal teas from the dried herb. The concentrations of artemisinin in the extracts was up to 20-fold higher than that in a herbal tea prepared from the dried herb, but the amount of total artemisinin extracted by the Chinese methods was much less than that removed in the herbal tea. While both extracts exhibited potent in vitro activities against Plasmodium falciparum, only the pounded juice contained sufficient artemisinin to suppress parasitaemia in P. berghei infected mice. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of malaria treatment using A. annua infusions

Divergent evolution of protein conformational dynamics in dihydrofolate reductase.

Molecular evolution is driven by mutations, which may affect the fitness of an organism and are then subject to natural selection or genetic drift. Analysis of primary protein sequences and tertiary structures has yielded valuable insights into the evolution of protein function, but little is known about the evolution of functional mechanisms, protein dynamics and conformational plasticity essential for activity. We characterized the atomic-level motions across divergent members of the dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) family. Despite structural similarity, Escherichia coli and human DHFRs use different dynamic mechanisms to perform the same function, and human DHFR cannot complement DHFR-deficient E. coli cells. Identification of the primary-sequence determinants of flexibility in DHFRs from several species allowed us to propose a likely scenario for the evolution of functionally important DHFR dynamics following a pattern of divergent evolution that is tuned by cellular environment