Supervised machine learning in multiple sclerosis: applications to clinically isolated syndromes

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory, demyelinating disease that can cause various neurological symptoms. The first episode of this disease is called a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and leads to the diagnosis of MS in the majority of patients in the long-term. Fast conversion from CIS to MS is associated with higher disability and more severe disease progression so that it is of high clinical interest to identify risk patients that will convert to MS within a short time. Several risk factors for conversion have been identified but they can only be applied on cohort levels. In this thesis we provide an overview of supervised machine learning approaches that can be used to distinguish individual CIS-stable patients from those who will experience a second attack within one to five years and consequently will be diagnosed with clinically definite MS. This classification is based on information available at baseline derived from routine MRI scans and complemented by clinical information such as lesion masks, age, gender, disability and CIS type of onset. We introduce the classification landscape, an overview of supervised classification studies with respect to their method and task complexity, and show that our experiments cover a large range of feature complexities in this landscape for the rather complex task of outcome prediction in CIS patients. We show that low-level voxel-based information such as tissue density of grey and white matter are not informative and lead to inconclusive results, whereas the introduction of high-level features such as lesion load, age, gender or disability improves accuracies to 71.4 % and 68 % at one- and three-year follow-up respectively in a single-centre data set. Finally, we propose a recursive feature elimination method that is able to identify specific regions that are relevant with respect to disease progression in MS and achieves accuracies of 73.9 % and 74.3 % at one- and three-year follow-up respectively even in a multi-centre setting

Prediction of time between CIS onset and clinical conversion to MS using Random Forests

CIS is diagnosed after a first neurological attack and can be considered an early stage of MS as ~80% of all CIS patients will have a second relapse within 20 years. The prediction of this second clinical relapse which marks the clinical conversion to MS (i.e., clinically-definite MS, CDMS) is very challenging, and many clinical and radiological predictors of CDMS have been identified. Machine learning techniques such as support vector machines (SVMs) have been widely applied to neuroimaging data in order to associate MRI features with binary clinical outcomes. A single-centre study has shown that it is possible to predict short-time conversion after 1 and 3 years with an accuracy of ~75 % using a priori defined features from baseline MRI measures and clinical characteristics, which were applied to support vector machines (SVMs). Random forests are another type of machine learning techniques that can easily be applied to regression problems, and consist of an ensemble of decision trees for regression where each tree is created from independent bootstraps from the input data. The present study shows the feasibility of using random forests with European multi-centre MRI data (obtained at CIS onset) to predict the actual date of conversion to CDMS rather than just a binary outcome at a fixed time point

Prediction of second neurological attack in patients with clinically isolated syndrome using support vector machines

The aim of this study is to predict the conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite multiple sclerosis using support vector machines. The two groups of converters and non-converters are classified using features that were calculated from baseline data of 73 patients. The data consists of standard magnetic resonance images, binary lesion masks, and clinical and demographic information. 15 features were calculated and all combinations of them were iteratively tested for their predictive capacity using polynomial kernels and radial basis functions with leave-one-out cross-validation. The accuracy of this prediction is up to 86.4% with a sensitivity and specificity in the same range indicating that this is a feasible approach for the prediction of a second clinical attack in patients with clinically isolated syndromes, and that the chosen features are appropriate. The two features gender and location of onset lesions have been used in all feature combinations leading to a high accuracy suggesting that they are highly predictive. However, it is necessary to add supporting features to maximise the accuracy. © 2013 IEEE

Opportunities for Understanding MS Mechanisms and Progression With MRI Using Large-Scale Data Sharing and Artificial Intelligence

Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients have heterogeneous clinical presentations, symptoms and progression over time, making MS difficult to assess and comprehend in vivo. The combination of large-scale data-sharing and artificial intelligence creates new opportunities for monitoring and understanding MS using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).First, development of validated MS-specific image analysis methods can be boosted by verified reference, test and benchmark imaging data. Using detailed expert annotations, artificial intelligence algorithms can be trained on such MS-specific data. Second, understanding disease processes could be greatly advanced through shared data of large MS cohorts with clinical, demographic and treatment information. Relevant patterns in such data that may be imperceptible to a human observer could be detected through artificial intelligence techniques. This applies from image analysis (lesions, atrophy or functional network changes) to large multi-domain datasets (imaging, cognition, clinical disability, genetics, etc.).After reviewing data-sharing and artificial intelligence, this paper highlights three areas that offer strong opportunities for making advances in the next few years: crowdsourcing, personal data protection, and organized analysis challenges. Difficulties as well as specific recommendations to overcome them are discussed, in order to best leverage data sharing and artificial intelligence to improve image analysis, imaging and the understanding of MS

The relation between APOE genotype and cerebral microbleeds in cognitively unimpaired middle- and old-aged individuals

Positive associations between cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) and APOE-ε4 (apolipoprotein E) genotype have been reported in Alzheimer's disease, but show conflicting results. We investigated the effect of APOE genotype on CMBs in a cohort of cognitively unimpaired middle- and old-aged individuals enriched for APOE-ε4 genotype. Participants from ALFA (Alzheimer and Families) cohort were included and their magnetic resonance scans assessed (n = 564, 50% APOE-ε4 carriers). Quantitative magnetic resonance analyses included visual ratings, atrophy measures, and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) segmentations. The prevalence of CMBs was 17%, increased with age (p < 0.05), and followed an increasing trend paralleling APOE-ε4 dose. The number of CMBs was significantly higher in APOE-ε4 homozygotes compared to heterozygotes and non-carriers (p < 0.05). This association was driven by lobar CMBs (p < 0.05). CMBs co-localized with WMH (p < 0.05). No associations between CMBs and APOE-ε2, gray matter volumes, and cognitive performance were found. Our results suggest that cerebral vessels of APOE-ε4 homozygous are more fragile, especially in lobar locations. Co-occurrence of CMBs and WMH suggests that such changes localize in areas with increased vascular vulnerability

White matter microstructure disruption in early stage amyloid pathology.

Introduction: Amyloid beta (Aβ) accumulation is the first pathological hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and it is associated with altered white matter (WM) microstructure. We aimed to investigate this relationship at a regional level in a cognitively unimpaired cohort. Methods: We included 179 individuals from the European Medical Information Framework for AD (EMIF‐AD) preclinAD study, who underwent diffusion magnetic resonance (MR) to determine tract‐level fractional anisotropy (FA); mean, radial, and axial diffusivity (MD/RD/AxD); and dynamic [18F]flutemetamol) positron emission tomography (PET) imaging to assess amyloid burden. Results: Regression analyses showed a non‐linear relationship between regional amyloid burden and WM microstructure. Low amyloid burden was associated with increased FA and decreased MD/RD/AxD, followed by decreased FA and increased MD/RD/AxD upon higher amyloid burden. The strongest association was observed between amyloid burden in the precuneus and body of the corpus callosum (CC) FA and diffusivity (MD/RD) measures. In addition, amyloid burden in the anterior cingulate cortex strongly related to AxD and RD measures in the genu CC. Discussion: Early amyloid deposition is associated with changes in WM microstructure. The non‐linear relationship might reflect multiple stages of axonal damage

Multi-study validation of data-driven disease progression models to characterize evolution of biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease

Understanding the sequence of biological and clinical events along the course of Alzheimer's disease provides insights into dementia pathophysiology and can help participant selection in clinical trials. Our objective is to train two data-driven computational models for sequencing these events, the Event Based Model (EBM) and discriminative-EBM (DEBM), on the basis of well-characterized research data, then validate the trained models on subjects from clinical cohorts characterized by less-structured data-acquisition protocols. // Seven independent data cohorts were considered totalling 2389 cognitively normal (CN), 1424 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 743 Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set was used as training set for the constriction of disease models while a collection of multi-centric data cohorts was used as test set for validation. Cross-sectional information related to clinical, cognitive, imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers was used. // Event sequences obtained with EBM and DEBM showed differences in the ordering of single biomarkers but according to both the first biomarkers to become abnormal were those related to CSF, followed by cognitive scores, while structural imaging showed significant volumetric decreases at later stages of the disease progression. Staging of test set subjects based on sequences obtained with both models showed good linear correlation with the Mini Mental State Examination score (R2EBM = 0.866; R2DEBM = 0.906). In discriminant analyses, significant differences (p-value ≤ 0.05) between the staging of subjects from training and test sets were observed in both models. No significant difference between the staging of subjects from the training and test was observed (p-value > 0.05) when considering a subset composed by 562 subjects for which all biomarker families (cognitive, imaging and CSF) are available. // Event sequence obtained with DEBM recapitulates the heuristic models in a data-driven fashion and is clinically plausible. We demonstrated inter-cohort transferability of two disease progression models and their robustness in detecting AD phases. This is an important step towards the adoption of data-driven statistical models into clinical domain

Multi-tracer model for staging cortical amyloid deposition using PET imaging

OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate a model for staging cortical amyloid deposition using PET with high generalizability. METHODS: 3027 subjects (1763 Cognitively Unimpaired (CU), 658 Impaired, 467 Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia, 111 non-AD dementia, and 28 with missing diagnosis) from six cohorts (EMIF-AD, ALFA, ABIDE, ADC, OASIS-3, ADNI) who underwent amyloid PET were retrospectively included; 1049 subjects had follow-up scans. Applying dataset-specific cut-offs to global Standard Uptake Value ratio (SUVr) values from 27 regions, single-tracer and pooled multi-tracer regional rankings were constructed from the frequency of abnormality across 400 CU subjects (100 per tracer). The pooled multi-tracer ranking was used to create a staging model consisting of four clusters of regions as it displayed a high and consistent correlation with each single-tracer ranking. Relationships between amyloid stage, clinical variables and longitudinal cognitive decline were investigated. RESULTS: SUVr abnormality was most frequently observed in cingulate, followed by orbitofrontal, precuneal, and insular cortices, then the associative, temporal and occipital regions. Abnormal amyloid levels based on binary global SUVr classification were observed in 1.0%, 5.5%, 17.9%, 90.0%, and 100.0% of stage 0-4 subjects, respectively. Baseline stage predicted decline in MMSE (ADNI: N=867, F=67.37, p3000 subjects across cohorts and radiotracers, and detects pre-global amyloid burden and distinct risk profiles of cognitive decline within globally amyloid-positive subjects

ExploreASL: An image processing pipeline for multi-center ASL perfusion MRI studies

Arterial spin labeling (ASL) has undergone significant development since its inception, with a focus on improving standardization and reproducibility of its acquisition and quantification. In a community-wide effort towards robust and reproducible clinical ASL image processing, we developed the software package ExploreASL, allowing standardized analyses across centers and scanners. The procedures used in ExploreASL capitalize on published image processing advancements and address the challenges of multi-center datasets with scanner-specific processing and artifact reduction to limit patient exclusion. ExploreASL is self-contained, written in MATLAB and based on Statistical Parameter Mapping (SPM) and runs on multiple operating systems. To facilitate collaboration and data-exchange, the toolbox follows several standards and recommendations for data structure, provenance, and best analysis practice. ExploreASL was iteratively refined and tested in the analysis of >10,000 ASL scans using different pulse-sequences in a variety of clinical populations, resulting in four processing modules: Import, Structural, ASL, and Population that perform tasks, respectively, for data curation, structural and ASL image processing and quality control, and finally preparing the results for statistical analyses on both single-subject and group level. We illustrate ExploreASL processing results from three cohorts: perinatally HIV-infected children, healthy adults, and elderly at risk for neurodegenerative disease. We show the reproducibility for each cohort when processed at different centers with different operating systems and MATLAB versions, and its effects on the quantification of gray matter cerebral blood flow. ExploreASL facilitates the standardization of image processing and quality control, allowing the pooling of cohorts which may increase statistical power and discover between-group perfusion differences. Ultimately, this workflow may advance ASL for wider adoption in clinical studies, trials, and practice