Diagnosis of tuberculosis in groups of badgers: an exploration of the impact of trapping efficiency, infection prevalence and the use of multiple tests

Accurate detection of infection with Mycobacterium bovis in live badgers would enable targeted tuberculosis control. Practical challenges in sampling wild badger populations mean that diagnosis of infection at the group (rather than the individual) level is attractive. We modelled data spanning 7 years containing over 2000 sampling events from a population of wild badgers in southwest England to quantify the ability to correctly identify the infection status of badgers at the group level. We explored the effects of variations in: (1) trapping efficiency; (2) prevalence of M. bovis; (3) using three diagnostic tests singly and in combination with one another; and (4) the number of badgers required to test positive in order to classify groups as infected. No single test was able to reliably identify infected badger groups if 80% sensitive, at least 94% specific, and able to be performed rapidly in the field

International Assessments of the Vulnerability of the Coastal Zone to Climate Change, Including an Australian Perspective

Australia, and considers global, and in some cases national, assessments of vulnerability to climate change to evaluate the implications for the Australian coast, or to assess the applicability of particular approaches and methods to Australia. Climate change vulnerability assessment aims at assisting policymakers in adequately responding to the challenge of climate change by investigating how projected changes in the Earth\u27s climate may affect natural systems and human activities. Generally studies consider, exposure or susceptibility of natural coastal systems, the effect on socio-economic systems (“impact assessment”), and/or how human actions may reduce adverse effects of climate change on those systems or activities (“adaptation assessment”, a measure of adaptive capacity). The framework for a climate change vulnerability assessment depends on the system under consideration, stressors, responses (effects), and actions (adaptation). It is important that each assessment is undertaken at the relevant spatial and temporal scales, and the results are often appropriate only at those scales

Confirmation of low genetic diversity and multiple breeding females in a social group of Eurasian badgers from microsatellite and field data

The Eurasian badger ( Meles meles ) is a facultatively social carnivore that shows only rudimentary co-operative behaviour and a poorly defined social hierarchy. Behavioural evidence and limited genetic data have suggested that more than one female may breed in a social group. We combine pregnancy detection by ultrasound and microsatellite locus scores from a well-studied badger population from Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire, UK, to demonstrate that multiple females reproduce within a social group. We found that at least three of seven potential mothers reproduced in a group that contained 11 reproductive age females and nine offspring. Twelve primers showed variability across the species range and only five of these were variable in Wytham. The microsatellites showed a reduced repeat number, a significantly higher number of nonperfect repeats, and moderate heterozygosity levels in Wytham. The high frequency of imperfect repeats and demographic phenomena might be responsible for the reduced levels of variability observed in the badger

The Duration of the Effects of Repeated Widespread Badger Culling on Cattle Tuberculosis Following the Cessation of Culling

Background: In the British Isles, control of cattle tuberculosis (TB) is hindered by persistent infection of wild badger (Meles meles) populations. A large-scale field trial—the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT)—previously showed that widespread badger culling produced modest reductions in cattle TB incidence during culling, which were offset by elevated TB risks for cattle on adjoining lands. Once culling was halted, beneficial effects inside culling areas increased, while detrimental effects on adjoining lands disappeared. However, a full assessment of the utility of badger culling requires information on the duration of culling effects. Methodology/Principal Findings: We monitored cattle TB incidence in and around RBCT areas after culling ended. We found that benefits inside culled areas declined over time, and were no longer detectable by three years post-culling. On adjoining lands, a trend suggesting beneficial effects immediately after the end of culling was insignificant, and disappeared after 18 months post-culling. From completion of the first cull to the loss of detectable effects (an average five-year culling period plus 2.5 years post-culling), cattle TB incidence was 28.7% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.7 to 35.8% lower) inside ten 100 km2 culled areas than inside ten matched no-culling areas, and comparable (11.7% higher, 95% CI: 13.0% lower to 43.4% higher, p = 0.39) on lands #2 km outside culled and no-culling areas. The financial costs of culling an idealized 150 km2 area would exceed the savings achieved through reduced cattle TB, by factors of 2 to 3.5. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings show that the reductions in cattle TB incidence achieved by repeated badger culling were not sustained in the long term after culling ended and did not offset the financial costs of culling. These results, combined with evaluation of alternative culling methods, suggest that badger culling is unlikely to contribute effectively to the control of cattle TB in Britain

Alloparental behaviour and long-term costs of mothers tolerating other members of the group in a plurally breeding mammal

Cooperative-breeding studies tend to focus on a few alloparental behaviours in highly cooperative species exhibiting high reproductive skew and the associated short-term, but less frequently long-term, fitness costs. We analysed a suite of alloparental behaviours (assessed via filming) in a kin-structured, high-density population of plurally breeding European badgers, Meles meles, which are not highly cooperative. Group members, other than mothers, performed alloparental behaviour; however, this was not correlated with their relatedness to within-group young. Furthermore, mothers babysat, allogroomed cubs without reciprocation, and allomarked cubs more than other members of the group (controlling for observation time). For welfare reasons, we could not individually mark cubs; however, the number observed pre-independence never exceeded that trapped. All 24 trapped cubs, in three filmed groups, were assigned both parents using 22 microsatellites. Mothers may breed cooperatively, as the time they babysat their assigned, or a larger, litter size did not differ. Furthermore, two mothers probably allonursed, as they suckled more cubs than their assigned litter size. An 18-year genetic pedigree, however, detected no short-term (litter size; maternal survival to the following year) or long-term (offspring breeding probability; offspring lifetime breeding success) fitness benefits with more within-group mothers or other members of the group. Rather, the number of other members of the group (excluding mothers) correlated negatively with long-term fitness. Mothers may tolerate other members of the group, as nonbreeders undertook more digging. Our study highlights that alloparental care varies on a continuum from that seen in this high-density badger population, where alloparenting behaviour is minimal, through to species where alloparental care is common and provides fitness benefits. (C) 2010 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Subsynoptic-scale features associated with extreme surface gusts in UK extratropical cyclone events

Numerous studies have addressed the mesoscale features within extratropical cyclones (ETCs) that are responsible for the most destructive winds, though few have utilized surface observation data, and most are based on case studies. By using a 39-station UK surface observation network, coupled with in-depth analysis of the causes of extreme gusts during the period 2008–2014, we show that larger-scale features (warm and cold conveyer belts) are most commonly associated with the top 1% of UK gusts but smaller-scale features generate the most extreme winds. The cold conveyor belt is far more destructive when joining the momentum of the ETC, rather than earlier in its trajectory, ahead of the approaching warm front. Sting jets and convective lines account for two thirds of severe surface gusts in the UK

Timescales of glacial isostatic adjustment in Greenland: is transient rheology required?

The possibility of a transient rheological response to ice age loading, first discussed in the literature of the 1980s, has received renewed attention. Transient behaviour across centennial to millennial timescales has been invoked to reconcile apparently contradictory inferences of steady-state (Maxwell) viscosity based on two distinct data sets from Greenland: Holocene sea-level curves and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) derived modern crustal uplift data. To revisit this issue, we first compute depth-dependent Fréchet kernels using 1-D Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models and demonstrate that the mantle resolving power of the two Greenland data sets is highly distinct, reflecting the differing spatial scale of the associated surface loading: the sea-level records are sensitive to viscosity structure across the entire upper mantle while uplift rates associated with post-1000 CE fluctuations of the Greenland Ice Sheet have a dominant sensitivity to shallow asthenosphere viscosity. Guided by these results, we present forward models which demonstrate that a moderate low viscosity zone beneath the lithosphere in Maxwell Earth models provides a simple route to simultaneously reconciling both data sets by significantly increasing predictions of present-day uplift rates in Greenland whilst having negligible impact on predictions of Holocene relative sea-level curves from the region. Our analysis does not rule out the possibility of transient deformation, but it suggests that it is not required to simultaneously explain these two data sets. A definitive demonstration of transient behaviour requires that one account for the resolving power of the data sets in modelling the glacial isostatic adjustment process

A reconciled solution of Meltwater Pulse 1A sources using sea-level fingerprinting

The most rapid global sea-level rise event of the last deglaciation, Meltwater Pulse 1A (MWP-1A), occurred ∼14,650 years ago. Considerable uncertainty regarding the sources of meltwater limits understanding of the relationship between MWP-1A and the concurrent fast-changing climate. Here we present a data-driven inversion approach, using a glacio-isostatic adjustment model to invert for the sources of MWP-1A via sea-level constraints from six geographically distributed sites. The results suggest contributions from Antarctica, 1.3 m (0–5.9 m; 95% probability), Scandinavia, 4.6 m (3.2–6.4 m) and North America, 12.0 m (5.6–15.4 m), giving a global mean sea-level rise of 17.9 m (15.7–20.2 m) in 500 years. Only a North American dominant scenario successfully predicts the observed sea-level change across our six sites and an Antarctic dominant scenario is firmly refuted by Scottish isolation basin records. Our sea-level based results therefore reconcile with field-based ice-sheet reconstructions