Migration Patterns, Use of Stopover Areas, and Austral Summer Movements of Swainson\u27s Hawks

From 1995 to 1998, we tracked movements of adult Swainson’s Hawks (Buteo swainsoni), using satellite telemetry to characterize migration, important stopover areas, and movements in the austral summer. We tagged 46 hawks from July to September on their nesting grounds in seven U.S. states and two Canadian provinces. Swainson’s Hawks followed three basic routes south on a broad front, converged along the east coast of central Mexico, and followed a concentrated corridor to a communal area in central Argentina for the austral summer. North of 20°N, southward and northward tracks differed little for individuals from east of the continental divide but differed greatly (up to 1700 km) for individuals from west of the continental divide. Hawks left the breeding grounds mid-August to mid-October; departure dates did not differ by location, year, or sex. Southbound migration lasted 42 to 98 days, northbound migration 51 to 82 days. Southbound, 36% of the Swainson’s Hawks departed the nesting grounds nearly 3 weeks earlier than the other radio-marked hawks and made stopovers 9.0–26.0 days long in seven separate areas, mainly in the southern Great Plains, southern Arizona and New Mexico, and northcentral Mexico. The birds stayed in their nonbreeding range for 76 to 128 days. All used a core area in central Argentina within 23% of the 738 800-km2 austral summer range, where they frequently moved long distances (up to 1600 km). Conservation of Swainson’s Hawks must be an international effort that considers habitats used during nesting and non-nesting seasons, including migration stopovers

FlyMine: an integrated database for Drosophila and Anopheles genomics.

FlyMine is a data warehouse that addresses one of the important challenges of modern biology: how to integrate and make use of the diversity and volume of current biological data. Its main focus is genomic and proteomics data for Drosophila and other insects. It provides web access to integrated data at a number of different levels, from simple browsing to construction of complex queries, which can be executed on either single items or lists

The origin and spread of olive cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin:The fossil pollen evidence

Olive (Olea europaea L.) was one of the most important fruit trees in the ancient Mediterranean region and a founder species of horticulture in the Mediterranean Basin. Different views have been expressed regarding the geographical origins and timing of olive cultivation. Since genetic studies and macro-botanical remains point in different directions, we turn to another proxy \u2013 the palynological evidence. This study uses pollen records to shed new light on the history of olive cultivation and large-scale olive management. We employ a fossil pollen dataset composed of high-resolution pollen records obtained across the Mediterranean Basin covering most of the Holocene. Human activity is indicated when Olea pollen percentages rise fairly suddenly, are not accompanied by an increase of other Mediterranean sclerophyllous trees, and when the rise occurs in combination with consistent archaeological and archaeobotanical evidence. Based on these criteria, our results show that the southern Levant served as the locus of primary olive cultivation as early as ~6500 years BP (yBP), and that a later, early/mid 6th millennium BP cultivation process occurred in the Aegean (Crete) \u2013 whether as an independent large-scale management event or as a result of knowledge and/or seedling transfer from the southern Levant. Thus, the early management of olive trees corresponds to the establishment of the Mediterranean village economy and the completion of the \u2018secondary products revolution\u2019, rather than urbanization or state formation. From these two areas of origin, the southern Levant and the Aegean olive cultivation spread across the Mediterranean, with the beginning of olive horticulture in the northern Levant dated to ~4800 yBP. In Anatolia, large-scale olive horticulture was palynologically recorded by ~3200 yBP, in mainland Italy at ~3400 yBP, and in the Iberian Peninsula at mid/late 3rd millennium BP

Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups. METHODS: Small-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district-level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016-2018. RESULTS: Adult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty-eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city. CONCLUSIONS: The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data

Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study

Background Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions although it is unclear which controls should be used to combat the disease. The study aimed at producing a framework to easily compare the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of different malaria prevention measures currently in widespread use. Methods We used published data from experimental hut trials conducted across Africa to characterise the entomological effect of pyrethroid-only ITNs versus ITNs combining a pyrethroid insecticide with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). We use these estimates to parameterise a dynamic mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria which is validated for two sites by comparing simulated results to empirical data from randomised control trials (RCTs) in Tanzania and Uganda. We extrapolated model simulations for a series of potential scenarios likely across the sub-Saharan African region and include results in an online tool (Malaria INtervention Tool [MINT]) that aims to identify optimum vector control intervention packages for scenarios with varying budget, price, entomological and epidemiological factors. Findings Our model indicates that switching from pyrethroid-only to pyrethroid-PBO ITNs could averted up to twice as many cases, although the additional benefit is highly variable and depends on the setting conditions. We project that annual delivery of long-lasting, non-pyrethroid IRS would prevent substantially more cases over 3-years, while pyrethroid-PBO ITNs tend to be the most cost-effective intervention per case averted. The model was able to predict prevalence and efficacy against prevalence in both RCTs for the intervention types tested. MINT is applicable to regions of sub-Saharan Africa with endemic malaria and provides users with a method of designing intervention packages given their setting and budget. Interpretation The most cost-effective vector control package will vary locally. Models able to recreate results of RCTs can be used to extrapolate outcomes elsewhere to support evidence-based decision making for investment in vector control

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Collaborations Workshop 2018 - Lightning talk - Mark Woodbridge

Presentation during Collaborations Workshop 2018, https://www.software.ac.uk/cw18