Estimating Uncertainty of Bus Arrival Times and Passenger Occupancies

Travel time reliability and the availability of seating and boarding space are important indicators of bus service quality and strongly influence users’ satisfaction and attitudes towards bus transit systems. With Automated Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automated Passenger Counter (APC) units becoming common on buses, some agencies have begun to provide real-time bus location and passenger occupancy information as a means to improve perceived transit reliability. Travel time prediction models have also been established based on AVL and APC data. However, existing travel time prediction models fail to provide an indication of the uncertainty associated with these estimates. This can cause a false sense of precision, which can lead to experiences associated with unreliable service. Furthermore, no existing models are available to predict individual bus occupancies at downstream stops to help travelers understand if there will be space available to board. The purpose of this project was to develop modeling frameworks to predict travel times (and associated uncertainties) as well as individual bus passenger occupancies. For travel times, accelerated failure-time survival models were used to predict the entire distribution of travel times expected. The survival models were found to be just as accurate as models developed using traditional linear regression techniques. However, the survival models were found to have smaller variances associated with predictions. For passenger occupancies, linear and count regression models were compared. The linear regression models were found to outperform count regression models, perhaps due to the additive nature of the passenger boarding process. Various modeling frameworks were tested and the best frameworks were identified for predictions at near stops (within five stops downstream) and far stops (further than eight stops). Overall, these results can be integrated into existing real-time transit information systems to improve the quality of information provided to passengers

Light Nuclei as Quantized Skyrmions

We consider the rigid body quantization of Skyrmions with topological charges 1 to 8, as approximated by the rational map ansatz. Novel, general expressions for the elements of the inertia tensors, in terms of the approximating rational map, are presented and are used to determine the kinetic energy contribution to the total energy of the ground and excited states of the quantized Skyrmions. Our results are compared to the experimentally determined energy levels of the corresponding nuclei, and the energies and spins of a few as yet unobserved states are predicted.Comment: 33 pages, 16 figures, Section 13 replace

Real-Time Data Processing in the Muon System of the D0 Detector

This paper presents a real-time application of the 16-bit fixed point Digital Signal Processors (DSPs), in the Muon System of the D0 detector located at the Fermilab Tevatron, presently the world's highest-energy hadron collider. As part of the Upgrade for a run beginning in the year 2000, the system is required to process data at an input event rate of 10 KHz without incurring significant deadtime in readout. The ADSP21csp01 processor has high I/O bandwidth, single cycle instruction execution and fast task switching support to provide efficient multisignal processing. The processor's internal memory consists of 4K words of Program Memory and 4K words of Data Memory. In addition there is an external memory of 32K words for general event buffering and 16K words of Dual Port Memory for input data queuing. This DSP fulfills the requirement of the Muon subdetector systems for data readout. All error handling, buffering, formatting and transferring of the data to the various trigger levels of the data acquisition system is done in software. The algorithms developed for the system complete these tasks in about 20 microseconds per event.Comment: 4 pages, Presented and published at the 11th IEEE NPSS Real Time Conference, held at Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, from June 14-18, 199

Great Bay Nitrogen Non-Point Source Study

The Great Bay Estuary is 21 square miles of tidal waters located in southeastern New Hampshire. It is one of 28 “estuaries of national significance” established under the Environmental Protection Agency’s National Estuary Program. The estuary is experiencing the signs of eutrophication, specifically, low dissolved oxygen, macroalgae blooms, and declining eelgrass habitat (DES, 2012). Sixty-eight percent of the nitrogen that ends up in the Great Bay Estuary originates from sources spread across the watershed; the remainder derives from direct discharges of municipal wastewater treatment facilities (DES, 2010; PREP, 2013). In this report, these sources of nitrogen are called non-point sources and consist of atmospheric deposition, fertilizers, human waste disposed into septic systems, and animal waste. The purpose of this study is to determine how much nitrogen each non-point source type contributes to the estuary. The nitrogen loads from municipal wastewater treatment facilities have been reported elsewhere (DES, 2010; PREP, 2012; PREP, 2013) and, therefore, are not included in this study except to provide context. The intended use of this study is for planning purposes, and is not meant for regulatory allocations or specific reduction requirements. The results of the model may be useful for towns or watershed groups for prioritizing nitrogen reduction efforts or as a starting point for more detailed studies of non-point sources. However, more detailed inventories of non-point sources will be needed to track the effects of nitrogen reduction efforts in smaller areas. In addition, the model makes no conclusions about the benefits of nitrogen reductions to receiving waters or overall estuarine health

PDFS: Practical Data Feed Service for Smart Contracts

Smart contracts are a new paradigm that emerged with the rise of the blockchain technology. They allow untrusting parties to arrange agreements. These agreements are encoded as a programming language code and deployed on a blockchain platform, where all participants execute them and maintain their state. Smart contracts are promising since they are automated and decentralized, thus limiting the involvement of third trusted parties, and can contain monetary transfers. Due to these features, many people believe that smart contracts will revolutionize the way we think of distributed applications, information sharing, financial services, and infrastructures. To release the potential of smart contracts, it is necessary to connect the contracts with the outside world, such that they can understand and use information from other infrastructures. For instance, smart contracts would greatly benefit when they have access to web content. However, there are many challenges associated with realizing such a system, and despite the existence of many proposals, no solution is secure, provides easily-parsable data, introduces small overheads, and is easy to deploy. In this paper we propose PDFS, a practical system for data feeds that combines the advantages of the previous schemes and introduces new functionalities. PDFS extends content providers by including new features for data transparency and consistency validations. This combination provides multiple benefits like content which is easy to parse and efficient authenticity verification without breaking natural trust chains. PDFS keeps content providers auditable, mitigates their malicious activities (like data modification or censorship), and allows them to create a new business model. We show how PDFS is integrated with existing web services, report on a PDFS implementation and present results from conducted case studies and experiments.Comment: Blockchain; Smart Contracts; Data Authentication; Ethereu

Ages of White Dwarf-Red Subdwarf Systems

We provide the first age estimates for two recently discovered white dwarf-red subdwarf systems, LHS 193AB and LHS 300AB. These unusual systems provide a new opportunity for linking the reliable age estimates for the white dwarfs to the (measurable) metallicities of the red subdwarfs. We have obtained precise photometry in the $V_{J}R_{KC}I_{KC}JH$ bands and spectroscopy covering from 6000\AA to 9000\AA for the two new systems, as well as for a comparison white dwarf-main sequence red dwarf system, GJ 283 AB. Using model grids available in the literature, we estimate the cooling age as well as temperature, surface gravity, mass, progenitor mass and {\it total} lifetimes of the white dwarfs. The results indicate that the two new systems are probably ancient thick disk objects with ages of at least 6-9 Gyr. We also conduct searches of red dwarf and white dwarf compendia from SDSS data and the L{\'e}pine Shara Proper Motion (LSPM) catalog for additional common proper motion white dwarf-red subdwarf systems. Only seven new candidate systems are found, which indicates the rarity of these systems.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

Pasmo of Flax

Guide to reducing losses of pasmo of flax by using clean seed treated with recommended fungicides and plowing under all straw and stubble. Discusses is damage caused by Pasmo, symptoms, disease development, and control

Experimental determination of the 6s^2 ^1S_0 -> 5d6s ^3 D_1 magnetic-dipole transition amplitude in atomic ytterbium

We report on a measurement of the highly forbidden 6s^2 ^1S_0 \to 5d6s ^3 D_1 magnetic-dipole transition in atomic ytterbium using the Stark-interference technique. This amplitude is important in interpreting a future parity nonconservation experiment that exploits the same transition. We find $| | ~ = ~ 1.33(6)_{Stat}(20)_{\beta} \times 10^{-4} \mu_0$, where the larger uncertainty comes from the previously measured vector transition polarizability $\beta$. The $M1$ amplitude is small and should not limit the precision of the parity nonconservation experiment.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures Paper resubmitted with minor corrections and additions based on comments from referee