Additional file 2: of Husbands’ involvement in antenatal care and its association with women’s utilization of skilled birth attendants in Sidama zone, Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

SPSS Output-logistic regression table. The data described the output of a multivariate analysis of selected predictors for women’s utilization of skilled birth attendants; and it is the best-fitted model selected from six models constructed by forward log-likelihood methods in SPSS. (PDF 176 kb

Additional file 4: of Husbands’ involvement in antenatal care and its association with women’s utilization of skilled birth attendants in Sidama zone, Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

English version Interview Questionnaire. (PDF 271 kb

Additional file 1: of Husbands’ involvement in antenatal care and its association with women’s utilization of skilled birth attendants in Sidama zone, Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

Participants’ Information Sheet & Consent-form. (PDF 219 kb

Effectiveness of midwifery-led care on pregnancy outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundMidwifery-led care is an evidence-based practice in which a qualified midwife provides comprehensive care for low-risk pregnant women and new-borns throughout pregnancy, birth, and the postnatal period. Evidence indicates that midwifery-led care has positive impacts on various outcomes, which include preventing preterm births, reducing the need for interventions, and improving clinical outcomes. This is, however, mainly based on studies from high-income countries. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the effectiveness of midwifery-led care on pregnancy outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.MethodsWe used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Three electronic databases (PubMed, CINAHL, and EMBASE) were searched. The search results were systematically screened by two independent researchers. Two authors independently extracted all relevant data using a structured data extraction format. Data analysis for the meta-analysis was done using STATA Version 16 software. A weighted inverse variance random-effects model was used to estimate the effectiveness of midwifery-led care on pregnancy outcomes. Odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was presented using a forest plot.ResultsTen studies were eligible for inclusion in this systematic review, of which five studies were eligible for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Women receiving midwifery-led care had a significantly lower rate of postpartum haemorrhage and a reduced rate of birth asphyxia. The meta-analysis further showed a significantly reduced risk of emergency Caesarean section (OR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.27-0.72), increased odds of vaginal birth (OR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.04-1.23), decreased use of episiotomy (OR = 0.46; 95% CI: 0.10-0.82), and decreased average neonatal admission time in neonatal intensive care unit (OR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.44-0.75).ConclusionsThis systematic review indicated that midwifery-led care has a significant positive impact on improving various maternal and neonatal outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. We therefore advise widespread implementation of midwifery-led care in low- and middle-income countries

Inequality in healthcare-seeking behavior among women with pelvic organ prolapse: a systematic review and narrative synthesis

Abstract Introduction Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) affects women’s quality of life in various aspects. However, evidence on the healthcare-seeking behavior of women with POP is limited. Therefore, this review aimed to identify and synthesize the existing evidence on the healthcare-seeking behavior among women with POP. Methods This systematic review and narrative synthesis of the literature on healthcare-seeking behavior among women with POP was conducted from 20 June to 07 July 2022. The electronic databases PubMed, African Journals Online, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, African Index Medicus and Directory of Open Access Journal, and Google Scholar were searched for relevant literature published from 1996 to April 2022. The retrieved evidence was synthesized using a narrative synthesis approach. The characteristics of included studies and the level of healthcare-seeking behavior were summarized in a table and texts. Error bar was used to show the variability across different studies. Results A total of 966 articles were retrieved of which only eight studies with 23,501 women (2,683 women with pelvic organ prolapse) were included in the synthesis. The level of healthcare-seeking behavior ranges from 21.3% in Pakistan to 73.4% in California, USA. The studies were conducted in four different populations, used both secondary and primary data, and were conducted in six different countries. The error bar shows variation in healthcare-seeking behavior. Conclusions The level of health-care seeking behavior among women with POP is low in low-income countries. There is substantial variability in the characteristics of the reviewed studies. We recommend a large-scale and robust study which will help to better understand the healthcare-seeking behavior among women with POP

Reliability and validity of the Sidaamu Afoo version of the pelvic organ prolapse symptom score questionnaire

Abstract Background Both for clinical and research purposes, it is critical that clinicians and researchers use a tool that is trans-culturally adapted and tested for its psychometric properties. The English version of the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Symptom Score (POP-SS) questionnaire was developed in 2000. Since then it has been translated into other languages and verified. However, the tool has not been adapted for use in Sidaamu Afoo language in the Sidama Region of Ethiopia. Objective This study aimed to translate and adapt the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Symptom Score questionnaire into Sidaamu Afoo and evaluate its psychometric properties. Methods A total of 100 women with symptomatic prolapse completed version-2 of the POP-SS questionnaire during the first round of interviews, and 61 of them completed the questionnaire during the second round of interviews (to establish the test-retest reliability). We adapted the scale translation process recommended by Beaton and his colleagues. The content validity was assessed using the content validity index and the construct validity was done based on exploratory factor analysis using the principal component analysis model. The criterion validity was evaluated by using the Kruskal-Wallis test based on stages of the prolapse established via pelvic examination. The internal consistency reliability of the scale was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha value, and test-retest reliability was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient. Results The questionnaire was successfully translated to Sidaamu Afoo, and achieved a good content validity index (0.88), high internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha of 0.79), and test-retest reliability (an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.83). The exploratory factor analysis revealed two factors based on an eigenvalue of 1. The two factors explained 70.6% of the common variance, and each item loaded well (0.61 to 0.92) to its corresponding factor. There is a significant difference in the median score of prolapse symptoms across different stages of prolapse (Kruskal-Wallis χ2, 17.5, p < 0.001). Conclusion The Sidaamu Afoo version of the POP-SS tool is valid and reliable. Further studies that involve a balanced number of women in each stage of prolapse are needed to avoid the ceiling and floor effects

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.</p