Urban and Hinterland Evolution under Growing Population Pressure

An integrated mathematical model for the evolution of urban structure and population ist presented. The city configuration consists of an occupation number representation of different kinds of buildings such as lodgings and factories distributed over a grid of plots, and the population configuration describes the distribution of the population between city (c) and hinterland (h). The dynamics of the total configuration is governed by motivation - dependent transition rates between neighbouring configurations. Equations of evolution on the stochastic level (masterequation) and deterministic level (quasi-meanvalue equations) can thereupon be derived. We focus on that sector of the model describing the population dynamics between hinterland (h) and city (c). Under the assumption of equal net birth rates in (c) and (h), and for given growth of the total population P(t), the dynamics of the population shares between (h) and (c) can be treated explicitely in terms of a time dependent evolution potential. One can distinguish between the two main cases of "constructive competition between (c) and (h)" and "worsening balance between (c) and (h)". In the first case a stabilisation of the population shares in c and h takes place, whereas in the second case a dramatic migratory phase transition sets in, namely a sudden rush of the population from the depleting hinterland to the overcrowding city. KEYWORDS: 1. Integration of Urban and Population Dynamics 2. Motivation Dependent Transition Rates 3. Master Equation 4. Quasimeanvalue Equations 5. Migratory Phase-Transitions

Dynamics of Political Opinion Formation including Catastrophe Theory

After Nazism and Communism new forms of totalitarianism fostered by religious fundamentalism have arisen at the turn of the present century. In view of this fact we present a parsimonious quantitative model designed to shed some light on the dynamics of the formation of totalitarian systems. The model is constructed according to the principles of “sociodynamics” that belongs to the broad field of nonlinear dynamic systems theory (NDS). It comprises two order parameters and four trend parameters. All of them are socio-politically interpreted. Stationary, stagnant and revolutionary system-phases are exhibited in 10 scenarios. The relation to catastrophe theory is discussed

Account of Different Views in Dynamic Choice Processes

Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScienc

Optimisation of BACE1 inhibition of tripartite structures by modification of membrane anchors, spacers and pharmacophores – development of potential agents for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease

Systematic variation of membrane anchor, spacer and pharmacophore building blocks leads to an optimisation of the inhibitory effect of tripartite structures towards BACE1-induced cleavage of the amyloid precursor protein (APP).Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich

Sustainability assessments of energy scenarios: citizens’ preferences for and assessments of sustainability indicators

Background: Given the multitude of scenarios on the future of our energy systems, multi-criteria assessments are increasingly called for to analyze and assess desired and undesired effects of possible pathways with regard to their environmental, economic and social sustainability. Existing studies apply elaborate lists of sustainability indicators, yet these indicators are defined and selected by experts and the relative importance of each indicator for the overall sustainability assessments is either determined by experts or is computed using mathematical functions. Target group-specific empirical data regarding citizens’ preferences for sustainability indicators as well as their reasoning behind their choices are not included in existing assessments. Approach and results: We argue that citizens’ preferences and values need to be more systematically analyzed. Next to valid and reliable data regarding diverse sets of indicators, reflections and deliberations are needed regarding what different societal actors, including citizens, consider as justified and legitimate interventions in nature and society, and what considerations they include in their own assessments. For this purpose, we present results from a discrete choice experiment. The method originated in marketing and is currently becoming a popular means to systematically analyze individuals’ preference structures for energy technology assessments. As we show in our paper, it can be fruitfully applied to study citizens’ values and weightings with regard to sustainability issues. Additionally, we present findings from six focus groups that unveil the reasons behind citizens’ preferences and choices. Conclusions: Our combined empirical methods provide main insights with strong implications for the future development and assessment of energy pathways: while environmental and climate-related effects significantly influenced citizens’ preferences for or against certain energy pathways, total systems and production costs were of far less importance to citizens than the public discourse suggests. Many scenario studies seek to optimize pathways according to total systems costs. In contrast, our findings show that the role of fairness and distributional justice in transition processes featured as a dominant theme for citizens. This adds central dimensions for future multi-criteria assessments that, so far, have been neglected by current energy systems models

Integrated Multidimensional Sustainability Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways

Sustainable development embraces a broad spectrum of social, economic and ecological aspects. Thus, a sustainable transformation process of energy systems is inevitably multidimensional and needs to go beyond climate impact and cost considerations. An approach for an integrated and interdisciplinary sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways is presented here. It first integrates energy system modeling with a multidimensional impact assessment that focuses on life cycle‐based environmental and macroeconomic impacts. Then, stakeholders’ preferences with respect to defined sustainability indicators are inquired, which are finally integrated into a comparative scenario evaluation through a multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA), all in one consistent assessment framework. As an illustrative example, this holistic approach is applied to the sustainability assessment of ten different transformation strategies for Germany. Applying multi‐criteria decision analysis reveals that both ambitious (80%) and highly ambitious (95%) carbon reduction scenarios can achieve top sustainability ranks, depending on the underlying energy transformation pathways and respective scores in other sustainability dimensions. Furthermore, this research highlights an increasingly dominant contribution of energy systems’ upstream chains on total environmental impacts, reveals rather small differences in macroeconomic effects between different scenarios and identifies the transition among societal segments and climate impact minimization as the most important stakeholder preferences

Sustainability assessments of energy scenarios: citizens' preferences for and assessments of sustainability indicators

Given the multitude of scenarios on the future of our energy systems, multi-criteria assessments are increasingly called for to analyze and assess desired and undesired effects of possible pathways with regard to their environmental, economic and social sustainability. Existing studies apply elaborate lists of sustainability indicators, yet these indicators are defined and selected by experts and the relative importance of each indicator for the overall sustainability assessments is either determined by experts or is computed using mathematical functions. Target group‑specific empirical data regarding citizens' preferences for sustainability indicators as well as their reasoning behind their choices are not included in existing assessments. We argue that citizens' preferences and values need to be more systematically analyzed. Next to valid and reliable data regarding diverse sets of indicators, reflections and deliberations are needed regarding what different societal actors, including citizens, consider as justified and legitimate interventions in nature and society, and what considerations they include in their own assessments. For this purpose, we present results from a discrete choice experiment. The method originated in marketing and is currently becoming a popular means to systematically analyze individuals' preference structures for energy technology assessments. As we show in our paper, it can be fruitfully applied to study citizens' values and weightings with regard to sustainability issues. Additionally, we present findings from six focus groups that unveil the reasons behind citizens preferences and choices. Our combined empirical methods provide main insights with strong implications for the future development and assessment of energy pathways: while environmental and climate-related effects significantly influenced citizens preferences for or against certain energy pathways, total systems and production costs were of far less importance to citizens than the public discourse suggests. Many scenario studies seek to optimize pathways according to total systems costs. In contrast, our findings show that the role of fairness and distributional justice in transition processes featured as a dominant theme for citizens. This adds central dimensions for future multi-criteria assessments that, so far, have been neglected by current energy systems models