Empirical risk analysis of pension insurance: the case of Germany

With this paper we seek to contribute to the literature on pension insurance systems. The financial literature tends to focus exclusively on the US pension insurance system. This is the first major empirical study to address the German occupational pension insurance (PSVaG) plan in Germany. The study is based on a Merton-type one-factor model, in which we determine the credit portfolio risk profile of the occupational pension insurance plan and compare two alternative pricing plans. We find that there is a low, yet non-negligible risk of very high losses that may threaten the existence of the occupational pension insurance plan (PSVaG). While relating risk premiums to firms' default probabilities would cause them to diverge widely, a marginal risk contribution method would produce less pronounced differences compared to the current, uniform pricing plan. --Pension insurance,Risk-adjusted premiums,Credit portfolio risk

Former of Turn Trajectory of Sliding Valve Shaft of Gas Line

Former of turn trajectory of sliding valve shaft of gas line, that allows to provide desired motion trajectory of sliding valve and its full closing, is considered in that paper. Imitation model of that former, research results, which allow to detect influence of gain factor and time constant of position controller on value of speed error, that has impact on delay of output coordinate from setting, and that results to delay of sliding valve motion process to setting position point, are shown

Аудит промышленной безопасности организации в системе РСЧС

Аудиторская проверка в пожарно-спасательной части №3 и отдельный пост пожарно-спасательной части №3 ФГКУ "5 отряд федеральной противопожарной службы по Томской области".Audit in firefighting and rescue unit No. 3 and a separate post firefighting and rescue parts №3 FGKU "5 detachment of the Federal fire service in the Tomsk region"

Migration und räumliche Transformation: Theoretische Ansätze, empirische Erkenntnisse, interdisziplinäre Perspektiven

Migration hat es schon immer gegeben und wird voraussichtlich in Zukunft noch weiter zunehmen. Die Land-Stadt-Mobilität in Lateinamerika, Afrika und Asien führt gegenwärtig zu Megastäd-ten mit großen sozialen und infrastrukturellen Problemen. Küs-tenregionen, die durch hohe Besiedlungsdichte und starkes Be-völkerungswachstum geprägt sind, werden künftig von Klimawan-del noch stärker als bereits heute bedroht sein. Generell sind die Ursachen für Migration sehr vielschichtig. Grundsätzlich können positive wie negative Wirkungen von Migration auf Her-kunfts- wie Zielregionen gefunden werden. Zum einen können Herkunftsregionen von erheblichen Geldtransfers ihrer Auswan-derer*innen profitieren (Beispiel Mexiko), während in anderen Fällen die Geldtransfers die fehlenden Arbeitskräfte im länd-lichen Raum nicht aufwiegen können (Beispiel Tansania). Eben-falls sind die Auswirkungen der Migration auf ihre Zielregio-nen divers. Aus historischer Sicht hatten Einwanderungsgruppen häufig an einer geringeren Wertschätzung zu leiden. Dabei hat-ten viele Zielregionen von den Neuankömmlingen profitiert (billige Arbeitskräfte, kulturelle Bereicherung etc.). Gene-rell ist wichtig zu betonen, dass der Mensch als in soziale Beziehungen eingebundener, kulturell und durch historische Prozesse geprägter Akteur in den Mittelpunkt der Migrations-forschung gestellt werden muss.Migration always existed and is expected to intensify in the future. Rural-urban mobility in Latin America, Africa and Asia is currently leading to megacities with major social and in-frastructural problems. Coastal regions, often characterized by large agglomerations with high population density and growth, are in particular highly exposed to climatic change, i.e. sea level rise. Thus, causes of migration are very di-verse and complex. In principle, positive and negative effects of migration exist in regions of origin and destination. Yet, regions of origin can benefit from significant transfers of funds from their emigrants (e.g. Mexico), while in other coun-tries, remittances cannot outweigh the lack of rural workers (e.g. Tanzania). Likewise, the impact of migration on their target regions is diverse. From a historical point of view, immigrant groups suffered from lower appreciation although many target regions benefited from the newcomers (cheap labor, cultural enrichment etc.). In general, it is important to em-phasize that human beings, as immersed in social relationships and shaped by culture and history, have to be placed at the center of research on migration

Efficacy and safety of statin therapy in older people: a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 28 randomised controlled trials

Background: Statin therapy has been shown to reduce major vascular events and vascular mortality in a wide range of individuals, but there is uncertainty about its efficacy and safety among older people. We undertook a meta-analysis of data from all large statin trials to compare the effects of statin therapy at different ages. Methods: In this meta-analysis, randomised trials of statin therapy were eligible if they aimed to recruit at least 1000 participants with a scheduled treatment duration of at least 2 years. We analysed individual participant data from 22 trials (n=134 537) and detailed summary data from one trial (n=12 705) of statin therapy versus control, plus individual participant data from five trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (n=39 612). We subdivided participants into six age groups (55 years or younger, 56–60 years, 61–65 years, 66–70 years, 71–75 years, and older than 75 years). We estimated effects on major vascular events (ie, major coronary events, strokes, and coronary revascularisations), cause-specific mortality, and cancer incidence as the rate ratio (RR) per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. We compared proportional risk reductions in different age subgroups by use of standard χ2 tests for heterogeneity when there were two groups, or trend when there were more than two groups. Findings: 14 483 (8%) of 186 854 participants in the 28 trials were older than 75 years at randomisation, and the median follow-up duration was 4·9 years. Overall, statin therapy or a more intensive statin regimen produced a 21% (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·77–0·81) proportional reduction in major vascular events per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. We observed a significant reduction in major vascular events in all age groups. Although proportional reductions in major vascular events diminished slightly with age, this trend was not statistically significant (ptrend=0·06). Overall, statin or more intensive therapy yielded a 24% (RR 0·76, 95% CI 0·73–0·79) proportional reduction in major coronary events per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, and with increasing age, we observed a trend towards smaller proportional risk reductions in major coronary events (ptrend=0·009). We observed a 25% (RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·73–0·78) proportional reduction in the risk of coronary revascularisation procedures with statin therapy or a more intensive statin regimen per 1·0 mmol/L lower LDL cholesterol, which did not differ significantly across age groups (ptrend=0·6). Similarly, the proportional reductions in stroke of any type (RR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·89) did not differ significantly across age groups (ptrend=0·7). After exclusion of four trials which enrolled only patients with heart failure or undergoing renal dialysis (among whom statin therapy has not been shown to be effective), the trend to smaller proportional risk reductions with increasing age persisted for major coronary events (ptrend=0·01), and remained non-significant for major vascular events (ptrend=0·3). The proportional reduction in major vascular events was similar, irrespective of age, among patients with pre-existing vascular disease (ptrend=0·2), but appeared smaller among older than among younger individuals not known to have vascular disease (ptrend=0·05). We found a 12% (RR 0·88, 95% CI 0·85–0·91) proportional reduction in vascular mortality per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, with a trend towards smaller proportional reductions with older age (ptrend=0·004), but this trend did not persist after exclusion of the heart failure or dialysis trials (ptrend=0·2). Statin therapy had no effect at any age on non-vascular mortality, cancer death, or cancer incidence. Interpretation: Statin therapy produces significant reductions in major vascular events irrespective of age, but there is less direct evidence of benefit among patients older than 75 years who do not already have evidence of occlusive vascular disease. This limitation is now being addressed by further trials. Funding: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation