The 1997 Kagoshima (Japan) earthquake doublet: A quantitative analysis of aftershock rate changes

We quantitatively map relative rate changes for the aftershock sequence following the second mainshock of the 1997 earthquake doublet (M_W = 6.1, M_W = 6.0) in the Kagoshima province (Japan). Using the spatial distribution of the modified Omori law parameters for aftershocks that occurred during the 47.8 days between the two mainshocks, we forecast the aftershock activity in the next 50 days and compare it to the actually observed rates. The relative rate change map reveals four regions with statistically significant relative rate changes - three negative and one positive. “Our analysis suggests that the coseismic rate changes for off-fault aftershocks could be explained by changes in static stress. However, to explain the activation and deactivation of on-fault seismicity, other mechanism such as unusual crustal properties and the presence of abundant crustal fluids are required.

Earthquake detection capability of the Swiss Seismic Network

A reliable estimate of completeness magnitudes is vital for many seismicity- and hazard-related studies. Here we adopted and further developed the Probability-based Magnitude of Completeness (PMC) method. This method determines network detection completeness (MP) using only empirical data: earthquake catalogue, phase picks and station information. To evaluate the applicability to low- or moderate-seismicity regions, we performed a case study in Switzerland. The Swiss Seismic Network (SSN) at present is recording seismicity with one of the densest networks of broad-band sensors in Europe. Based on data from 1983 January 1 to 2008 March 31, we found strong spatio-temporal variability of network completeness: the highest value of MP in Switzerland at present is 2.5 in the far southwest, close to the national boundary, whereas MP is lower than 1.6 in high-seismicity areas. Thus, events of magnitude 2.5 can be detected in all of Switzerland. We evaluated the temporal evolution of MP for the last 20 yr, showing the successful improvement of the SSN. We next introduced the calculation of uncertainties to the probabilistic method using a bootstrap approach. The results show that the uncertainties in completeness magnitudes are generally less than 0.1 magnitude units, implying that the method generates stable estimates of completeness magnitudes. We explored the possible use of PMC: (1) as a tool to estimate the number of missing earthquakes in moderate-seismicity regions and (2) as a network planning tool with simulation computations of installations of one or more virtual stations to assess the completeness and identify appropriate locations for new station installations. We compared our results with an existing study of the completeness based on detecting the point of deviation from a power law in the earthquake-size distribution. In general, the new approach provides higher estimates of the completeness magnitude than the traditional one. We associate this observation with the difference in the sensitivity of the two approaches in periods where the event detectability of the seismic networks is low. Our results allow us to move towards a full description of completeness as a function of space and time, which can be used for hazard-model development and forecast-model testing, showing an illustrative example of the applicability of the PMC method to regions with low to moderate seismicit

How present am I: three virtual reality facilities testing the fear of falling

Virtual reality environments have long been used in studies related to architecture simulation. The main objective of this paper is to measure the sense of presence that different virtual reality devices provide to users so as to evaluate their effectiveness when used to simulate real environments and draw conclusions of people’s behaviours when using them. The study also aims at investigating, in a quantitative way, the influence of architectural elements on the comfort of use of a built environment, namely considering the fear of falling reported by adults while using these architectural elements. Using a between-subjects design randomly distributed between two experimental conditions (safe and unsafe), a set of three studies were conducted in three different virtual reality environments using a 5-sided-CAVE, a Powerwall or a Head Mounted Display. The study shows that immersive virtual reality devices give users a higher sense of presence than semi-immersive ones. One of the conclusions of the study is that a higher sense of presence helps to enhance the building spaces perceived impacts on users (in this case the fear of falling).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe

We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10-20yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European regio

Progressive resistance training for concomitant increases in muscle strength and bone mineral density in older adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Older adults experience considerable muscle and bone loss that are closely interconnected. The efficacy of progressive resistance training programs to concurrently reverse/slow the age-related decline in muscle strength and bone mineral density (BMD) in older adults remains unclear. Objectives: We aimed to quantify concomitant changes in lower-body muscle strength and BMD in older adults following a progressive resistance training program and to determine how these changes are influenced by mode (resistance only vs. combined resistance and weight-bearing exercises), frequency, volume, load, and program length. Methods: MEDLINE/PubMed and Embase databases were searched for articles published in English before 1 June, 2021. Randomized controlled trials reporting changes in leg press or knee extension one repetition maximum and femur/hip or lumbar spine BMD following progressive resistance training in men and/or women ≥ 65 years of age were included. A random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression determined the effects of resistance training and the individual training characteristics on the percent change (∆%) in muscle strength (standardized mean difference) and BMD (mean difference). The quality of the evidence was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool (version 2.0) and Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. Results: Seven hundred and eighty studies were identified and 14 were included. Progressive resistance training increased muscle strength (∆ standardized mean difference = 1.1%; 95% confidence interval 0.73, 1.47; p ≤ 0.001) and femur/hip BMD (∆ mean difference = 2.77%; 95% confidence interval 0.44, 5.10; p = 0.02), but not BMD of the lumbar spine (∆ mean difference = 1.60%; 95% confidence interval − 1.44, 4.63; p = 0.30). The certainty for improvement was greater for muscle strength compared with BMD, evidenced by less heterogeneity (I2 = 78.1% vs 98.6%) and a higher overall quality of evidence. No training characteristic significantly affected both outcomes (p \u3e 0.05), although concomitant increases in strength and BMD were favored by higher training frequencies, increases in strength were favored by resistance only and higher volumes, and increases in BMD were favored by combined resistance plus weight-bearing exercises, lower volumes, and higher loads. Conclusions: Progressive resistance training programs concomitantly increase lower-limb muscle strength and femur/hip bone mineral density in older adults, with greater certainty for strength improvement. Thus, to maximize the efficacy of progressive resistance training programs to concurrently prevent muscle and bone loss in older adults, it is recommended to incorporate training characteristics more likely to improve BMD