Bovine Tuberculosis in Doñana Biosphere Reserve: The Role of Wild Ungulates as Disease Reservoirs in the Last Iberian Lynx Strongholds

Doñana National Park (DNP) in southern Spain is a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve where commercial hunting and wildlife artificial feeding do not take place and traditional cattle husbandry still exists. Herein, we hypothesized that Mycobacterium bovis infection prevalence in wild ungulates will depend on host ecology and that variation in prevalence will reflect variation in the interaction between hosts and environmental risk factors. Cattle bTB reactor rates increased in DNP despite compulsory testing and culling of infected animals. In this study, 124 European wild boar, 95 red deer, and 97 fallow deer were sampled from April 2006 to April 2007 and analyzed for M. bovis infection. Modelling and GIS were used to identify risk factors and intra and inter-species relationships. Infection with M. bovis was confirmed in 65 (52.4%) wild boar, 26 (27.4%) red deer and 18 (18.5%) fallow deer. In the absence of cattle, wild boar M. bovis prevalence reached 92.3% in the northern third of DNP. Wild boar showed more than twice prevalence than that in deer (p<0.001). Modelling revealed that M. bovis prevalence decreased from North to South in wild boar (p<0.001) and red deer (p<0.01), whereas no spatial pattern was evidenced for fallow deer. Infection risk in wild boar was dependent on wild boar M. bovis prevalence in the buffer area containing interacting individuals (p<0.01). The prevalence recorded in this study is among the highest reported in wildlife. Remarkably, this high prevalence occurs in the absence of wildlife artificial feeding, suggesting that a feeding ban alone would have a limited effect on wildlife M. bovis prevalence. In DNP, M. bovis transmission may occur predominantly at the intra-species level due to ecological, behavioural and epidemiological factors. The results of this study allow inferring conclusions on epidemiological bTB risk factors in Mediterranean habitats that are not managed for hunting purposes. Our results support the need to consider wildlife species for the control of bTB in cattle and strongly suggest that bTB may affect animal welfare and conservation

The benefits and risks of bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination among infants at high risk for both tuberculosis and severe combined immunodeficiency: assessment by Markov model

BACKGROUND: Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is given to Canadian Aboriginal neonates in selected communities. Severe reactions and deaths associated with BCG have been reported among infants born with immunodeficiency syndromes. The main objective of this study was to estimate threshold values for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) incidence, above which BCG is associated with greater risk than benefit. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to simulate the natural histories of tuberculosis (TB) and SCID in children from birth to 14 years. The annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARI) and SCID incidence were varied in analyses. The model compared a scenario of no vaccination to intervention with BCG. Appropriate variability and uncertainty analyses were conducted. Outcomes included TB incidence and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: In sensitivity analyses, QALYs were lower among vaccinated infants if the ARI was 0.1% and the rate of SCID was higher than 4.2 per 100,000. Assuming an ARI of 1%, this threshold increased to 41 per 100,000. In uncertainty analyses (Monte Carlo simulations) which assumed an ARI of 0.1%, QALYs were not significantly increased by BCG unless SCID incidence is 0. With this ARI, QALYs were significantly decreased among vaccinated children if SCID incidence exceeds 23 per 100,000. BCG is associated with a significant increase in QALYs if the ARI is 1%, and SCID incidence is below 5 per 100,000. CONCLUSION: The possibility that Canadian Aboriginal children are at increased risk for SCID has serious implications for continued BCG use in this population. In this context, enhanced TB Control – including early detection and treatment of infection – may be a safer, more effective alternative

Commercial Nucleic-Acid Amplification Tests for Diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Respiratory Specimens: Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

BACKGROUND: Hundreds of studies have evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of nucleic-acid amplification tests (NAATs) for tuberculosis (TB). Commercial tests have been shown to give more consistent results than in-house assays. Previous meta-analyses have found high specificity but low and highly variable estimates of sensitivity. However, reasons for variability in study results have not been adequately explored. We performed a meta-analysis on the accuracy of commercial NAATs to diagnose pulmonary TB and meta-regression to identify factors that are associated with higher accuracy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We identified 2948 citations from searching the literature. We found 402 articles that met our eligibility criteria. In the final analysis, 125 separate studies from 105 articles that reported NAAT results from respiratory specimens were included. The pooled sensitivity was 0.85 (range 0.36-1.00) and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (range 0.54-1.00). However, both measures were significantly heterogeneous (p<.001). We performed subgroup and meta-regression analyses to identify sources of heterogeneity. Even after stratifying by type of commercial test, we could not account for the variability. In the meta-regression, the threshold effect was significant (p = .01) and the use of other respiratory specimens besides sputum was associated with higher accuracy. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The sensitivity and specificity estimates for commercial NAATs in respiratory specimens were highly variable, with sensitivity lower and more inconsistent than specificity. Thus, summary measures of diagnostic accuracy are not clinically meaningful. The use of different cut-off values and the use of specimens other than sputum could explain some of the observed heterogeneity. Based on these observations, commercial NAATs alone cannot be recommended to replace conventional tests for diagnosing pulmonary TB. Improvements in diagnostic accuracy, particularly sensitivity, need to be made in order for this expensive technology to be worthwhile and beneficial in low-resource countries

Building an ecologically founded disease risk prioritization framework for migratory wildlife species based on contact with livestock

Shared use of rangelands by livestock and wildlife can lead to disease transmission. To align agricultural livelihoods with wildlife conservation, a multipronged and interdisciplinary approach for disease management is needed, particularly in data-limited situations with migratory hosts. Migratory wildlife and livestock can range over vast areas, and opportunities for disease control interventions are limited. Predictive frameworks are needed which can allow for identification of potential sites and timings of interventions. We developed an iterative three-step framework to assess cross-species disease transmission risk between migrating wildlife and livestock in data-limited circumstances and across social-ecological scales. The framework first assesses risk of transmission for potentially important diseases for hosts in a multi-use landscape. Following this, it uses an epidemiological risk function to represent transmission-relevant contact patterns, using density and distribution of the host to map locations and periods of disease risk. Finally, it takes fine-scale data on livestock management and observed wildlife-livestock interactions to provide locally relevant insights on disease risk. We applied the framework to characterize disease transmission between livestock and saiga antelopes Saiga tatarica in Central Kazakhstan. At step 1, we identified peste-des-petits-ruminants as posing a high risk of transmission from livestock to saigas, foot-and-mouth disease as low risk, lumpy skin disease as unknown and pasteurellosis as uncertain risk. At step 2, we identified regions of high disease transmission risk at different times of year, indicating where disease management should be focussed. At step 3, we synthesized field surveys, government data and literature review to assess the role of livestock in the 2015 saiga mass mortality event from pasteurellosis, concluding that it was minimal. Synthesis and applications. Our iterative framework has wide applicability in assessing and predicting disease spill-over at management-relevant temporal and spatial scales in areas where livestock share space with migratory species. Our case study demonstrated the value of combining ecological and social information to inform management of targeted interventions to reduce disease risk, which can be used to plan disease surveillance and vaccination programmes

Bacterial Genetic Signatures of Human Social Phenomena among M. tuberculosis from an Aboriginal Canadian Population

Despite a widespread global distribution and highly variable disease phenotype, there is little DNA sequence diversity among isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In addition, many regional population genetic surveys have revealed a stereotypical structure in which a single clone, lineage, or clade makes up the majority of the population. It is often assumed that dominant clones are highly adapted, that is, the overall structure of M. tuberculosis populations is the result of positive selection. In order to test this assumption, we analyzed genetic data from extant populations of bacteria circulating in Aboriginal communities in Saskatchewan, Canada. Demographic parameters of the bacterial population were estimated from archival epidemiological data collected over ∼130 years since the onset of epidemic tuberculosis in the host communities. Bacterial genetic data were tested against neutral theory expectations and the local evolutionary history of M. tuberculosis investigated by phylogenetic analysis. Our findings are not consistent with positive selection on the bacterial population. Instead, we uncovered founder effects persisting over decades and barriers to gene flow within the bacterial population. Simulation experiments suggested that a combination of these neutral influences could result in the stereotypical structure of M. tuberculosis populations. Some aspects of population structure were suggestive of background selection, and data were on the whole consistent with combined effects of population bottlenecks, subdivision, and background selection. Neutral phenomena, namely, bottlenecks and partitions within populations, are prominent influences on the evolution of M. tuberculosis and likely contribute to restricted genetic diversity observed within this species. Given these influences, a complex evolutionary model will be required to define the relative fitness of different M. tuberculosis lineages and, ultimately, to uncover the genetic basis for its success as a pathogen