Evaluation of the southerly low‐level jet climatology for the central United States as simulated by NARCCAP regional climate models

An ensemble of simulations from four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global reanalysis was obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and used to evaluate the ability of the RCMs to simulate the long‐term (1979–2000) climatology of southerly low‐level jets (S‐LLJs) in the central United States. The RCM‐derived S‐LLJ climatologies were evaluated against rawinsonde observations for the same period. The use of a small ensemble of RCM simulations helped to identify model differences and assisted with interpretation. The RCMs generally reproduced the broad spatial patterns and temporal variations of jet frequency and average jet height and speed. No model consistently outperformed the others in all aspects of the evaluation, although differences existed between models in the placement, migration and relative strength of ‘hotspots’ of more frequent jet activity. In particular, three of the four models placed the centre of greatest nocturnal S‐LLJ activity during the warm season in northern and central Texas, whereas for the other model the greatest jet activity was located in the south‐central plains (Kansas/Oklahoma). The magnitude of a S‐LLJ frequency maximum over south Texas also varied between models, with simulated frequencies exceeding observed frequencies for some models but substantially underestimating for others. The evaluation presented here highlights the potential applications of RCMs in S‐LLJ research for future climate and other assessment studies that require three‐dimensional data with relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. The overall performance of the models in reproducing the long‐term S‐LLJ climatology supports the use of NARCCAP RCM simulations in climate assessments for the central United States where S‐LLJs are an important contributor to the regional climatology.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134503/1/joc4636_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134503/2/joc4636.pd

Adjoint inversion modeling of Asian dust emission using lidar observations

International audienceA four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system for a regional dust model (RAMS/CFORS-4DVAR; RC4) is applied to an adjoint inversion of a heavy dust event over eastern Asia during 20 March?4 April 2007. The vertical profiles of the dust extinction coefficients derived from NIES Lidar network are directly assimilated, with validation using observation data. Two experiments assess impacts of observation site selection: Experiment A uses five Japanese observation sites located downwind of dust source regions; Experiment B uses these and two other sites near source regions. Assimilation improves the modeled dust extinction coefficients. Experiment A and Experiment B assimilation results are mutually consistent, indicating that observations of Experiment A distributed over Japan can provide comprehensive information related to dust emission inversion. Time series data of dust AOT calculated using modeled and Lidar dust extinction coefficients improve the model results. At Seoul, Matsue, and Toyama, assimilation reduces the root mean square differences of dust AOT by 35?40%. However, at Beijing and Tsukuba, the RMS differences degrade because of fewer observations during the heavy dust event. Vertical profiles of the dust layer observed by CALIPSO are compared with assimilation results. The dense dust layer was trapped at potential temperatures (?) of 280?300 K and was higher toward the north; the model reproduces those characteristics well. Latitudinal distributions of modeled dust AOT along the CALIPSO orbit paths agree well with those of CALIPSO dust AOT, OMI AI, and MODIS coarse-mode AOT, capturing the latitude at which AOTs and AI have high values. Assimilation results show increased dust emissions over the Gobi Desert and Mongolia; especially for 29?30 March, emission flux is about 10 times greater. Strong dust uplift fluxes over the Gobi Desert and Mongolia cause the heavy dust event. Total optimized dust emissions are 57.9 Tg (Experiment A; 57.8% larger than before assimilation) and 56.3 Tg (Experiment B; 53.4% larger)

Numerical modeling of Asian dust emission and transport with adjoint inversion using LIDAR network observations

International audienceA four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system for a regional dust model (RAMS/CFORS-4DVAR; RC4) is applied to a heavy dust event which occurred between 20 March and 4 April 2007 over eastern Asia. The vertical profiles of the dust extinction coefficients derived from NIES LIDAR observation network are directly assimilated. We conduct two experiments to evaluate impacts of selections of observation sites: Experiment A uses five Japanese observation sites located only downwind of dust source regions; the other Experiment B uses these sites together with two other sites near source regions (China and Korea). Validations using various observation data (e.g., PM10 concentration, MODIS AOT, OMI Aerosol Index, and the dust extinction coefficient derived by space-based LIDAR NASA/CALIPSO) are demonstrated. The modeled dust extinction coefficients are improved considerably through the assimilation. Assimilation results of Experiment A are consistent with those of Experiment B, indicating that observations of Experiment A can capture the dust event correctly and include sufficient information for dust emission inversion. Time series of dust AOT calculated by modeled and LIDAR dust extinction coefficients show good agreement. At Seoul, Matsue, and Toyama, assimilation reduces the root mean square errors of dust AOT by 31?32%. Vertical profiles of the dust layer observed by CALIPSO are also compared with assimilation results. The dense dust layer was trapped between ?=280?300 K and elevated higher toward the north; the model reproduces those characteristics well. The modeled dust AOT along the orbit paths agrees well with the CALIPSO dust AOT, OMI AI, and the coarse mode AOT retrieved from MODIS; especially the modeled dust AOT and the MODIS coarse mode AOT are consistent quantitatively. Assimilation results increase dust emissions over the Gobi Desert and Mongolia considerably; especially between 29 and 30 March, emission flux is increased by about 2?3 times. The heavy dust event is caused by the heavy dust uplift flux over the Gobi Desert and Mongolia during those days. We obtain the total optimized dust emissions of 57.9 Tg (Experiment A; 57.8% larger than before assimilation) and 56.3 Tg (Experiment B; 53.4% larger)

Asian dust outflow in the PBL and free atmosphere retrieved by NASA CALIPSO and an assimilated dust transport model

International audienceThree-dimensional structures of Asian dust transport in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and free atmosphere occurring successively during the end of May 2007 were clarified using results of space-borne backscatter lidar, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), and results simulated using a data-assimilated version of a dust transport model (RC4) based on a ground-based NIES lidar network. Assimilated results mitigated overestimation of dust concentration by reducing 17.4% of dust emissions and improved the root mean square difference (RMSD) of dust AOT between the model and NIES lidar by 31.2?66.9%. The dust layer depths, vertical and horizontal structure simulated by RC4 agreed with CALIOP from the dust source region to a long-range downwind region for which 3-D distribution of dust clouds had not been clarified previously. Based on CALIOP and RC4, two significant transport mechanisms of Asian dust in the PBL and free atmosphere were clarified: a low level dust outbreak within the dry slot region of a well developed low-pressure system, and formation of an elevated dust layer within the warm sector of a low-pressure system. Finally, the aging of pure dust particles was investigated using the particle depolarization ratio (PDR) at 532 nm and the color ratio (CR) at 1064 nm and 532 nm for the low-altitude dust transport case. Aerosols with high PDR were observed uniformly over the dust source region. As the dust cloud was transported to the eastern downwind regions, aerosols with low PDR and high CR were found in the layer of less than 1 km height, suggesting changes from the external to internal mixing state of spherical aerosols and dust in the surface layer

Smectic A Filled Birefringent Elements and Fast Switching Twisted Dual Frequency Nematic Cells Used for Digital Light Deflection

We describe the application of smectic A (SmA) liquid crystals for beam deflection. SmA materials can be used in digital beam deflectors (DBDs) as fillers for passive birefringent prisms. SmA prisms have high birefringence and can be constructed in a variety of shapes, including single prisms and prismatic blazed gratings of different angles and profiles. We address the challenges of uniform alignment of SmA, such as elimination of focal conic domains. Fast rotation of the incident light polarization in DBDs is achieved by an electrically switched 90 twisted nematic (TN) cell

Digital Beam Deflectors Based Partly on Liquid Crystals

A digital beam deflector based partly on liquid crystals has been demonstrated as a prototype of a class of optical beam-steering devices that contain no mechanical actuators or solid moving parts. Such beam-steering devices could be useful in a variety of applications, including free-space optical communications, switching in fiber-optic communications, general optical switching, and optical scanning. Liquid crystals are of special interest as active materials in nonmechanical beam steerers and deflectors because of their structural flexibility, low operating voltages, and the relatively low costs of fabrication of devices that contain them

Heuristic Optimization Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Model Selection: Application on the Russian Innovative Performance

Innovations, be they radical new products or technology improvements are widely recognized as a key factor of economic growth. To identify the factors triggering innovative activities is a main concern for economic theory and empirical analysis. As the number of hypotheses is large, the process of model selection becomes a crucial part of the empirical implementation. The problem is complicated by the fact that unobserved heterogeneity and possible endogeneity of regressors have to be taken into account. A new efficient solution to this problem is suggested, applying optimization heuristics, which exploits the inherent discrete nature of the problem. The model selection is based on information criteria and the Sargan test of overidentifying restrictions. The method is applied to Russian regional data within the framework of a log-linear dynamic panel data model. To illustrate the performance of the method, we also report the results of Monte-Carlo simulations

Conservation successes and challenges for wide-ranging sharks and rays

Overfishing is the most significant threat facing sharks and rays. Given the growth in consumption of seafood, combined with the compounding effects of habitat loss, climate change, and pollution, there is a need to identify recovery paths, particularly in poorly managed and poorly monitored fisheries. Here, we document conservation through fisheries management success for 11 coastal sharks in US waters by comparing population trends through a Bayesian state-space model before and after the implementation of the 1993 Fisheries Management Plan for Sharks. We took advantage of the spatial and temporal gradients in fishing exposure and fisheries management in the Western Atlantic to analyze the effect on the Red List status of all 26 wide-ranging coastal sharks and rays. We show that extinction risk was greater where fishing pressure was higher, but this was offset by the strength of management engagement (indicated by strength of National and Regional Plan of Action for sharks and rays). The regional Red List Index (which tracks changes in extinction risk through time) declined in all regions until the 1980s but then improved in the North and Central Atlantic such that the average extinction risk is currently half that in the Southwest. Many sharks and rays are wide ranging, and successful fisheries management in one country can be undone by poorly regulated or unregulated fishing elsewhere. Our study underscores that well-enforced, science-based management of carefully monitored fisheries can achieve conservation success, even for slow-growing species

Heuristic Model Selection for Leading Indicators in Russia and Germany

Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified and estimated to construct forecasts. As the potential number of lags included is large, we compare full's specified VAR models with subset models obtained using a Genetic Algorithm enabling in multivariate lag structures. The problem is complicated by the fact that a structural break and seasonal variation of indicators have to be taken into account. The models allow for a comparison of the dynamic adjustment and the forecasting performance of the leading indicators for both countries revealing marked differences between Russia and Germany

Pathways and Management of Phosphorus in urban areas

Due to the finite nature of mineral phosphorus reserves, effective management of anthropogenic phosphorus flows is currently under investigation by the international research community. This article emphasizes the importance of urban phosphorus flows, which are often marginalized due to the greater magnitude of agricultural phosphorus flows. A study on phosphorus flows in Gothenburg, Sweden, points out the potential role of solid waste in nutrient management, as the amounts of phosphorus in solid waste and in wastewater were found to be equal. Importation of food commodities accounts for 50% of the total inflow of phosphorus, and food waste is a major contributor of phosphorus to solid waste. The results suggest that solid waste incineration residues represent a large underestimated sink of phosphorus. Focusing on wastewater as the sole source of recovered phosphorus is not sufficient. The Swedish national goal on phosphorus recycling, which is limited to sewage sludge, targets only a part of the total phosphorus flow that can potentially be recovered. In contrast to previous studies, agricultural flows in Gothenburg were marginal compared to flows related to the urban waste management infrastructure. We emphasize the need for debate on preferable routes for disposal of waste with a high phosphorus content. Both recovery potential and usefulness of the recovered product for agricultural purposes have to be considered. Impacts of five waste management strategies on phosphorus flows were evaluated: incineration of all the waste, comprehensive food waste separation, installation of kitchen grinders, urine diversion, and separation of blackwater and food waste