The Infinite Latent Events Model

We present the Infinite Latent Events Model, a nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian distribution over infinite dimensional Dynamic Bayesian Networks with binary state representations and noisy-OR-like transitions. The distribution can be used to learn structure in discrete timeseries data by simultaneously inferring a set of latent events, which events fired at each timestep, and how those events are causally linked. We illustrate the model on a sound factorization task, a network topology identification task, and a video game task.NTT Communication Science LaboratoriesUnited States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR FA9550-07-1-0075)United States. Office of Naval Research (ONR N00014-07-1-0937)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Graduate Research Fellowship)United States. Army Research Office (ARO W911NF-08-1-0242)James S. McDonnell Foundation (Causal Learning Collaborative Initiative

Infinite dynamic bayesian networks

We present the infinite dynamic Bayesian network model (iDBN), a nonparametric, factored state-space model that generalizes dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). The iDBN can infer every aspect of a DBN: the number of hidden factors, the number of values each factor can take, and (arbitrarily complex) connections and conditionals between factors and observations. In this way, the iDBN generalizes other nonparametric state space models, which until now generally focused on binary hidden nodes and more restricted connection structures. We show how this new prior allows us to find interesting structure in benchmark tests and on two realworld datasets involving weather data and neural information flow networks.Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Hugh Hampton Young Memorial Fund Fellowship)United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR FA9550-07-1-0075

Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Priors for Reinforcement Learning

We consider reinforcement learning in partially observable domains where the agent can query an expert for demonstrations. Our nonparametric Bayesian approach combines model knowledge, inferred from expert information and independent exploration, with policy knowledge inferred from expert trajectories. We introduce priors that bias the agent towards models with both simple representations and simple policies, resulting in improved policy and model learning

Ariel - Volume 5 Number 1

Editors Mark Dembert J.D. Kanofskv Entertainment Editor Robert Breckenridge Gary Kaskey Editor Emeritus David A. Jacoby Photographer Scott Kastner Staff Richard Blutstein Bob Johnson John R. Cohn Joseph Sassani Ken Jaffe Bob Sklarof

Prodromus of Vertebrate Paleontology and Geochronology of Bermuda

Les fluctuacions pleistocèniques del nivell de la mar han estat el primer determinant de la deposició geològica i l'evolució biòtica a Bermuda. Lilla està composta d'arenes carbonatades dipositades sobre el cim erosionat d'un volcà submarí durant el decurs de nivells de la mar elevats dels períodes interglacials. A partir de les arenisques interglaciars s'han obtingut unes poques restes de vertebrats, principalment d'edat pleístocènica mitja. Els intervals glacials estan marcats per sols vermells, derivats principalment de la pols atmosfèrica. Els vertebrats fòssils d'edat glacial no es troben preservats a la superfície i només es coneixen de coves i rebliments de fissures. A Bermuda es coneixen faunes fòssils dels darrers dos episodis glacials, però no dels anteriors. Es coneixen extincions certes o probables de vertebrats correlacionades amb, com a minim, quatre pujades interglacials del nivell de la mar (estadis isotòpics marins, MIS, 11,9,5 i 1). Es revisa la història de la paleontologia de vertebrats a Bermuda i s'allisten i es descriuen breument les localitats de vertebrats fòssils.Pleistocene sea-level fluctuations were the primary determinant of geological deposition and biotic evolution on Bermuda. The island is composed of carbonate sand deposited on the eroded summit of a submarine volcano during elevated sea-levels of interglacial periods. A few vertebrate remains have been recovered directly from interglacial sandstones, mainly of mid-Pleistocene age. Glacial intervals are marked by red soils derived mainly from atmospheric dust. Vertebrate fossils of glacial age are not preserved at the surface and are known only from caves and fissure fills. Fossil faunas are known on Bermuda from the last two glacial episodes but none of the earlier ones. Certain or probable extinctions of vertebrates are correlated with at least four interglacial rises in sea-level--Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 11,9,5, and 1. The history ofvertebrate paleontology on Bermuda is reviewed and fossil vertebrate localities are listed and briefly described

Raised late pregnancy glucose concentrations in mice carrying pups with targeted disruption of H19delta13.

OBJECTIVE: We have hypothesized that variation in imprinted growth-promoting fetal genes may affect maternal glucose concentrations in pregnancy. To test this hypothesis we evaluated the effects of fetal disruption of murine H19(Delta13) on maternal glucose concentrations in pregnancy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Experimental mice were pregnant females that had inherited the disrupted H19(Delta13) from their fathers and were therefore phenotypically wild type due to imprinting; approximately half of their litters were null for H19(Delta13) through maternal inheritance of the disrupted gene. In control mice approximately half the litter paternally inherited the disrupted H19(Delta13), so the pups were either genetically wild type or phenotypically wild type due to imprinting. Blood glucose concentrations were assessed by intraperitoneal glucose tolerance tests on days 1, 16, and 18 of pregnancy. RESULTS: There were no differences in the glucose concentrations of control and experimental pregnant mice at day 1. However, at day 16 mothers carrying H19(Delta13)-null pups had a significantly higher area under the glucose tolerance test curves than controls (1,845 +/- 378 vs. 1,386 +/- 107 mmol * min * l(-1) [P = 0.01]) in association with increasing pregnancy-related insulin resistance. Although this difference lessened toward term, overall, mothers of maternally inherited H19(Delta13) mutants had significantly higher glucose concentrations during the last trimester (1,602 +/- 321 [n = 17] vs. 1,359 +/- 147 [n = 18] mmol * min * l(-1) [P = 0.009]). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that maternal glucose concentrations in pregnant mice can be affected by targeted disruption of fetal H19(Delta13). This implies that variable fetal IGF2 expression could affect risk for gestational diabetes

Pregnancy insulin, glucose, and BMI contribute to birth outcomes in nondiabetic mothers.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the effects of normal variations in maternal glycemia on birth size and other birth outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Women in two unselected birth cohorts, one retrospective (n = 3,158) and one prospective (n = 668), underwent an oral glucose challenge at 28 weeks of gestation. In the retrospective study, glycemia was linked to routine birth records. In the prospective study, offspring adiposity was assessed by skinfold thickness from birth to age 24 months. RESULTS: In the retrospective study, within the nondiabetic range (2.1-7.8 mmol/l), each 1 mmol/l rise in the mother's 60-min glucose level was associated with a (mean +/- SEM) 2.1 +/- 0.8% (P = 0.006) rise in absolute risk of assisted vaginal delivery, a 3.4 +/- 0.8% (P 90th centile) was independently related to the mother's fasting glucose (odds ratio 2.61 per +1 mmol/l [95% CI 1.15-5.93]) and prepregnancy BMI (1.10 per +1 kg/m(2) [1.04-1.18]). The mother's higher fasting glycemia (P = 0.004), lower insulin sensitivity (P = 0.01), and lower insulin secretion (P = 0.02) were independently related to greater offspring adiposity at birth. During postnatal follow-up, the correlation between the mother's glycemia and offspring adiposity disappeared by 3 months, whereas prepregnancy BMI was associated with offspring adiposity that was only apparent at 12 and 24 months (both P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Prepregnancy BMI, pregnancy glycemia, insulin sensitivity, and insulin secretion all contribute to offspring adiposity and macrosomia and may be separate targets for intervention to optimize birth outcomes and later offspring health

The Common Factors of Grit, Hope, and Optimism Differentially Influence Suicide Resilience

No study to date has simultaneously examined the commonalities and unique aspects of positive psychological factors and whether these factors uniquely account for a reduction in suicide risk. Using a factor analytic approach, the current study examined the relationships between grit, hope, optimism, and their unique and overlapping relationships in predicting suicide ideation. Results of principle axis factor analysis demonstrated close relationships between these variables at both the construct and item level. Item-level analyses supported a five-factor solution (Stick-to-Itiveness, Poor Future, Consistency of Interest, Positive Future, and Poor Pathways). Four of the five factors (excluding Stick-to-Itiveness) were associated with suicide ideation. Additionally, results of a multiple regression analysis indicated that two of the five factors (Consistency of Interest and Positive Future) negatively predicted suicide ideation while Poor Future positively predicted suicide ideation. Implications regarding the interrelationships between grit, hope, and optimism with suicide ideation are discussed

Associations between paternally transmitted fetal IGF2 variants and maternal circulating glucose concentrations in pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that polymorphic variation in the paternally transmitted fetal IGF2 gene is associated with maternal glucose concentrations in the third trimester of pregnancy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 17 haplotype tag single nucleotide polymorphisms in the IGF2 gene region were genotyped in 1,160 mother/partner/offspring trios from the prospective Cambridge Baby Growth Study (n = 845 trios) and the retrospective Cambridge Wellbeing Study (n = 315 trios) (3,480 samples in total). Associations were tested between inferred parent-of-origin fetal alleles, z scores of maternal glucose concentrations 60 min. after an oral glucose load performed at week 28 of pregnancy, and offspring birth weights. RESULTS: Using the minimum P value test, paternally transmitted fetal IGF2 polymorphisms were associated with maternal glucose concentrations; specifically, paternally transmitted fetal rs6578987 (P = 0.006), rs680 (P = 0.01), rs10770125 (P = 0.0002), and rs7924316 (P = 0.01) alleles were associated with increased maternal glucose concentrations in the third trimester of pregnancy and placental IGF-II contents at birth (P = 0.03). In contrast, there were no associations between maternal glucose concentrations and maternal or maternally transmitted fetal IGF2 genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Polymorphic variation in paternally transmitted fetal IGF2 is associated with increased maternal glucose concentrations in pregnancy and could potentially alter the risk of gestational diabetes in the mother. The association may be at least partially mediated by changes in placental IGF2 expression

Common polymorphic variation in the genetically diverse African insulin gene and its association with size at birth.

The insulin variable number of tandem repeats (INS VNTR) has been variably associated with size at birth in non-African populations. Small size at birth is a major determinant of neonatal mortality, so the INS VNTR may influence survival. We tested the hypothesis, therefore, that genetic variation around the INS VNTR in a rural Gambian population, who experience seasonal variation in nutrition and subsequently birth weight, may be associated with foetal and early growth. Six polymorphisms flanking the INS VNTR were genotyped in over 2,500 people. Significant associations were detected between the maternally inherited SNP 27 (rs689) allele and birth length [effect size 17.5 (5.2-29.8) mm; P = 0.004; n = 361]. Significant associations were also found between the maternally inherited African-specific SNP 28 (rs5506) allele and post-natal weight gain [effect size 0.19 (0.05-0.32) z score points/year; P = 0.005; n = 728). These results suggest that in the Gambian population studied there are associations between polymorphic variation in the genetically diverse INS gene and foetal and early growth characteristics, which contribute to overall polygenic associations with these traits