Smart decisions for the environment

People that are involved in managing natural environments face the challenge of achieving conservation goals with limited funds, and also of balancing needs for nature conservation with competing demands from society. This context has been a motivation for much of my research over the past 12 years, and I will share my career story with you as part of this paper. I will also describe progress we have made developing methods for prioritising where, when, and how to invest funds for protecting biodiversity. Progress in the field of ecosystem services, combined with progress in prioritisation, has been a key driver of the shift in opinion that conservation investments should be influenced by biodiversity values alone. I will outline examples of the development and application of applied techniques to systematically evaluate the impact of environmental actions, a field that has lagged significantly. The overall impact of my body of research has been to reveal that through smarter investment, significant public and private funds could be saved and far greater benefits for biodiversity and society could be achieved. I finish with some insights into how we can improve the future for women in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)

Prioritisation to prevent extinction

Prioritisation is about choice, and in the context of species extinction, it is about choosing what investments to make to prevent extinctions as opposed to assessing extinction risk, identifying species that are doomed to extinction, or mapping components of biodiversity. Prioritised investments may focus on conservation activities aimed at species protection or management, but they may also seek to acquire new knowledge to resolve uncertainties. Two core components of prioritisation are a clearly stated objective and knowledge of what activities can be undertaken, acknowledging that there are likely to be dependencies between these activities. As the natural environment and society change, so will the enabling conditions for conservation, hence the need to be adaptable and proactive into the future

Source Spectra and Site Response from SWaves of Intermediate-Depth Vrancea (Romania) Earthquakes

Seismograms from 55 intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes (M=4.0- 7.1) recorded at 43 stations of an accelerometric network in Romania are used to derive source spectra and site amplification functions from S-waves in the frequency range 0.5-20 Hz with the generalized inversion technique (GIT) (Castro et al., 1990). Attenuation is taken into account using the nonparametric attenuation functions derived by Oth et al. (2008) from the same dataset, and the attenuation-corrected data are then split into source and site contributions. The source spectra follow the ω-2-model (Brune, 1970, 1971) with high corner frequencies and a related Brune stress drop of the order of 100 MPa. The site amplification functions are determined for both horizontal and vertical components separately. Contrary to wide-spread expectation the vertical component shows significant amplification effects at high frequencies. The H/Z ratios determined from the GIT results compare well with H/V ratios computed directly from the S-wave window of the accelerograms (Lermo and Chávez-García, 1993). The basic assumption for the determination of site effects from H/V ratios is that the vertical component is not or only little affected by site effects. For Vrancea earthquakes, this assumption is incorrect and consequently site effects should not be estimated from H/V ratios. The reason for this peculiar fact is the geometry of intermediate-depth seismicity that leads to almost vertical raypaths beneath the stations

Bayesian computation via empirical likelihood

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the ABC parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The BCel algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, revised version of the previous version with a new titl

Using a social-ecological framework to inform the implementation of conservation plans

One of the key determinants of success in biodiversity conservation is how well conservation planning decisions account for the social system in which actions are to be implemented. Understanding elements of how the social and ecological systems interact can help identify opportunities for implementation. Utilizing data from a large-scale conservation initiative in southwestern of Australia, we explored how a social-ecological system framework can be applied to identify how social and ecological factors interact to influence the opportunities for conservation. Using data from semistructured interviews, an online survey, and publicly available data, we developed a conceptual model of the social-ecological system associated with the conservation of the Fitz-Stirling region. We used this model to identify the relevant variables (remnants of vegetation, stakeholder presence, collaboration between stakeholders, and their scale of management) that affect the implementation of conservation actions in the region. We combined measures for these variables to ascertain how areas associated with different levels of ecological importance coincided with areas associated with different levels of stakeholder presence, stakeholder collaboration, and scales of management. We identified areas that could benefit from different implementation strategies, from those suitable for immediate conservation action to areas requiring implementation over the long term to increase on-the-ground capacity and identify mechanisms to incentivize implementation. The application of a social-ecological framework can help conservation planners and practitioners facilitate the integration of ecological and social data to inform the translation of priorities for action into implementation strategies that account for the complexities of conservation problems in a focused way

What motivates ecological restoration?

Ecological restoration projects are motivated by diverse environmental and social reasons. Motivations likely vary between stakeholders or regions, and influence the approach taken to plan, implement, and monitor restoration projects. We surveyed 307 people involved in the restoration of native vegetation across Australia to identify their underlying motivations. We also elicited information on planning, implementation, and monitoring of restoration projects. We found that biodiversity enhancement is the main motivation for undertaking restoration, with biodiversity offsetting, water quality improvements, and social reasons as important secondary motivations. Motivations varied significantly by stakeholder type and region. Restoration projects primarily motivated by ecosystem service provision (e.g. water quality improvements and social reasons) sought less pristine ecological outcomes than projects motivated by biodiversity enhancement or offsetting. Rigorous monitoring designs (e.g. quantitative, repeatable surveys, and use of performance indicators) were rarely used in restoration projects, except for projects motivated by scientific research. Better alignment of different restoration motivations with the planning and monitoring of restoration projects should deliver greater benefits through setting appropriate objectives and evaluating outcomes against these objectives. These improvements will increase the capacity of the restoration practice to meet international biodiversity commitments and communicate restoration outcomes to stakeholders

The evidence for the bushmeat crisis in African savannas: A systematic quantitative literature review

Bushmeat hunting, trade and consumption is a growing biodiversity and food security concern. Much of the collated research is currently limited to forested regions however, despite indications of the increasing threat in savannas. Savanna regions are biodiverse and often have high-value wildlife tourism industries, but also have rapidly-growing rural populations, often highly dependent on natural resources. In this systematic quantitative literature review we seek to understand the state of knowledge about bushmeat in savanna regions in Africa. We aim to identify gaps in the literature, both spatially and topically, understand what methodologies are used, what common recommendations are made and what interventions have been quantified. We identified 144 relevant studies from the literature. Although studies have increased over time and diversified thematically, there were strong biases. Most studies were conducted in Tanzania, with gaps in research in southern Africa and the Sahelian region. Additionally, only 25% of papers investigated interventions used to reduce bushmeat hunting, with traditional enforcement being the most common intervention studied (53% of intervention studies, 13% of papers). Other frequently recommended interventions such as alternative incomes received little attention (14% of intervention studies, 3.5% of papers). Further, although many studies cite common drivers of bushmeat hunting such as income or livestock, the evidence for these drivers was lacking and contradictory. We reveal that although bushmeat in savanna regions is gaining recognition, many gaps in knowledge remain. This is the first study to systematically quantify the research about bushmeat in African savannas and aims to inform future research

Biodiversity indicators need to be fit for purpose

Background The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) estimates that roughly 22,000 species worldwide are threatened with extinction (IUCN 2014). This number is predicted to increase due to the impacts of human activities (Sala et al. 2000), but also as more species are described and have their extinction risk assessed. As a consequence of the extinction of species, intergovernmental policies and agreements have been developed to conserve biological diversity, including the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which has three main objectives: (1) conservation of biological diversity; (2) sustainable use of the components of biological diversity; and (3) fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources (Convention on Biological Diversity 2003)

Use of seasonal forecasting to manage weather risk in ecological restoration

Ecological restoration has widely variable outcomes from successes to partial or complete failures, and there are diverse perspectives on the factors that influence the likelihood of success. However, not much is known about how these factors are perceived, and whether people's perceptions match realities. We surveyed 307 people involved in the restoration of native vegetation across Australia to identify their perceptions on the factors influencing the success of restoration projects. We found that weather (particularly drought and flooding) has realized impacts on the success of restoration projects, but is not perceived to be an important risk when planning new projects. This highlights the need for better recognition and management of weather risk in restoration and a potential role of seasonal forecasting. We used restoration case studies across Australia to assess the ability of seasonal forecasts provided by the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, version M24 (POAMA-2) to detect unfavorable weather with sufficient skill and lead time to be useful for restoration projects. We found that rainfall and temperature variables in POAMA-2 predicted 88% of the weather issues encountered in restoration case studies apart from strong winds and cyclones. Of those restoration case studies with predictable weather issues, POAMA-2 had the forecast skill to predict the dominant or first-encountered issue in 67% of cases. We explored the challenges associated with uptake of forecast products through consultation with restoration practitioners and developed a prototype forecast product using a local case study. Integrating seasonal forecasting into decision making through (1) identifying risk management strategies during restoration planning, (2) accessing the forecast a month prior to revegetation activities, and (3) adapting decisions if extreme weather is forecasted, is expected to improve the establishment success of restoration

Equity trade-offs in conservation decision making

Conservation decisions increasingly involve multiple environmental and social objectives, which result in complex decision contexts with high potential for trade-offs. Improving social equity is one such objective that is often considered an enabler of successful outcomes and a virtuous ideal in itself. Despite its idealized importance in conservation policy, social equity is often highly simplified or ill-defined and is applied uncritically. What constitutes equitable outcomes and processes is highly normative and subject to ethical deliberation. Different ethical frameworks may lead to different conceptions of equity through alternative perspectives of what is good or right. This can lead to different and potentially conflicting equity objectives in practice. We promote a more transparent, nuanced, and pluralistic conceptualization of equity in conservation decision making that particularly recognizes where multidimensional equity objectives may conflict. To help identify and mitigate ethical conflicts and avoid cases of good intentions producing bad outcomes, we encourage a more analytical incorporation of equity into conservation decision making particularly during mechanistic integration of equity objectives. We recommend that in conservation planning motivations and objectives for equity be made explicit within the problem context, methods used to incorporate equity objectives be applied with respect to stated objectives, and, should objectives dictate, evaluation of equity outcomes and adaptation of strategies be employed during policy implementation