ESTIMATING THE BENEFITS OF REGIONALIZING EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICE PROVISION

Local area governments have experienced increasingly stringent budget constraints in recent years. Innovations in service delivery provide one avenue for increasing the effectiveness of resource allocations. This paper explores the potential savings available from regionalizing emergency medical service provision. A mixed integer programming model incorporating peak demand considerations is used to minimize service cost given a desired maximum response time. Changes in the weighted average response time measure the quality degradation required to attain the savings from cooperative provision. The results indicate that the benefits are substantial but that distribution of these gains is a possible barrier to implementation.Health Economics and Policy, Public Economics,

Gamma-Ray Bursts via Pair Plasma Fireballs from Heated Neutron Stars

In this paper we model the emission from a relativistically expanding electron-positron pair plasma fireball originating near the surface of a heated neutron star. This pair fireball is deposited via the annihilation of neutrino pairs emanating from the surface of the hot neutron star. The heating of neutron stars may occur in close neutron star binary systems near their last stable orbit. We model the relativistic expansion and subsequent emission of the plasma and find 10^51 to 10^52 ergs in gamma-rays are produced with spectral and temporal properties consistent with observed gamma-ray bursts.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to the Conference Proceedings of the 5th Huntsville Gamma-Ray Burst Symposiu

Predictions of the emergence of vaccine-resistant hepatitis B in The Gambia using a mathematical model

Vaccine escape variants of hepatitis B virus (HBV) have been identified world-wide. A mathematical model of HBV transmission is used to investigate the potential pattern of emergence of such variants. Attention is focused on The Gambia as a country with high quality epidemiological data, universal infant immunization and in which escape mutants after childhood infections have been observed. We predict that a variant cannot become dominant for at least 20 years from the start of vaccination, even when using a vaccine which affords no cross protection. The dominant factor responsible for this long time scale is the low rate of infectious contacts between infected and susceptible individuals (we estimate the basic reproduction number of hepatitis B in The Gambia to be 1·7). A variant strain that achieves high prevalence will also take many years to control, and it is questionable whether emergence will be identifiable by sero-surveillance until of high prevalence. The sensitivity of the model predictions to epidemiological and demographic factors is explored

Predictions of the emergence of vaccine-resistant hepatitis B in The Gambia using a mathematical model

Vaccine escape variants of hepatitis B virus (HBV) have been identified world-wide. A mathematical model of HBV transmission is used to investigate the potential pattern of emergence of such variants. Attention is focused on The Gambia as a country with high quality epidemiological data, universal infant immunization and in which escape mutants after childhood infections have been observed. We predict that a variant cannot become dominant for at least 20 years from the start of vaccination, even when using a vaccine which affords no cross protection. The dominant factor responsible for this long time scale is the low rate of infectious contacts between infected and susceptible individuals (we estimate the basic reproduction number of hepatitis B in The Gambia to be 1·7). A variant strain that achieves high prevalence will also take many years to control, and it is questionable whether emergence will be identifiable by sero-surveillance until of high prevalence. The sensitivity of the model predictions to epidemiological and demographic factors is explored

A Model for Short Gamma-Ray Bursts: Heated Neutron Stars in Close Binary Systems

In this paper we present a model for the short (< second) population of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). In this model heated neutron stars in a close binary system near their last stable orbit emit neutrinos at large luminosities (~ 10^53 ergs/sec). A fraction of these neutrinos will annihilate to form an electron-positron pair plasma wind which will, in turn, expand and recombine to photons which make the gamma-ray burst. We study neutrino annihilation and show that a substantial fraction (~ 50%) of energy deposited comes from inter-star neutrinos, where each member of the neutrino pair originates from each neutron star. Thus, in addition to the annihilation of neutrinos blowing off of a single star, we have a new source of baryon free energy that is deposited between the stars. To model the pair plasma wind between stars, we do three-dimensional relativistic numerical hydrodynamic calculations. Preliminary results are also presented of new, fully general relativistic calculations of gravitationally attracting stars falling from infinity with no angular momentum. These simulations exhibit a compression effect.Comment: 3 pages, 3 postscript figs (2 color), to appear in "Gamma-Ray Burst and Afterglow Astronomy 2001", Woods Hole; 5-9 Nov, 200

Stochastic Weighted Graphs: Flexible Model Specification and Simulation

In most domains of network analysis researchers consider networks that arise in nature with weighted edges. Such networks are routinely dichotomized in the interest of using available methods for statistical inference with networks. The generalized exponential random graph model (GERGM) is a recently proposed method used to simulate and model the edges of a weighted graph. The GERGM specifies a joint distribution for an exponential family of graphs with continuous-valued edge weights. However, current estimation algorithms for the GERGM only allow inference on a restricted family of model specifications. To address this issue, we develop a Metropolis--Hastings method that can be used to estimate any GERGM specification, thereby significantly extending the family of weighted graphs that can be modeled with the GERGM. We show that new flexible model specifications are capable of avoiding likelihood degeneracy and efficiently capturing network structure in applications where such models were not previously available. We demonstrate the utility of this new class of GERGMs through application to two real network data sets, and we further assess the effectiveness of our proposed methodology by simulating non-degenerate model specifications from the well-studied two-stars model. A working R version of the GERGM code is available in the supplement and will be incorporated in the gergm CRAN package.Comment: 33 pages, 6 figures. To appear in Social Network

The Port Norfolk Project: Improved Raster Navigation Products From High Resolution Source Data

With increasing capabilities in technology, modern hydrographic surveys are comprised of similarly increasing amounts of data, only a minute fraction of which is currently available in the nautical charts produced by the NOAA Office of Coast Survey (OCS). Simultaneously, a tremendous amount of effort goes into the generalization and optimal cartographic representation of the hydrographic data onto raster products, from which the vector products are digitized. Preserving and maintaining a single database of high-resolution vector source data will retain— and make accessible—much more of the hydrographic data collected, alleviate the burden of generalization, and would allow for delivery of high-resolution vector products, as well as a very wide selection of raster products. From high-resolution source data, raster output could be generated at customer specifications. These “user-defined” raster products could be suitably tailored to meet anyone’s needs, regardless if they are a mariner, a scientist, a fisherman, a student, or a casual “common man” customer. The “user-defined” concept will ultimately improve our ability to meet the highly variable needs of our customers. This paper is intended as an exploratory endeavor, specifically, using the Paper Chart Editor component of CARIS HPD to create examples of the kinds of raster products one can create from high-resolution source data, how this process could optimize the current raster chart production workflow within OCS, while also providing a stronger focus on customer service. Finally, the capabilities and lessons learned from the experimentation with HPD will be applied toward the NOAA-wide implementation of Nautical Chart System II (NCSII)