Scope for Credit Risk Diversification

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic risk and the nature of exposure or firm heterogeneity. We derive fat-tailed correlated loss distributions arising from Gaussian risk factors and explore the potential for risk diversification. Where possible the results are generalised to non-Gaussian distributions. The theoretical results indicate that if the firm parameters are heterogeneous but come from a common distribution, for sufficiently large portfolios there is no scope for further risk reduction through active portfolio management. However, if the firm parameters come from different distributions, then further risk reduction is possible by changing the portfolio weights. In either case, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to underestimation of expected losses. But, once expected losses are controlled for, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to overestimation of risk, whether measured by unexpected loss or value-at-risk

Failure to Preserve β-Cell Function With Mycophenolate Mofetil and Daclizumab Combined Therapy in Patients With New- Onset Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE This trial tested whether mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) alone or with daclizumab (DZB) could arrest the loss of insulin-producing β-cells in subjects with new-onset type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A multi-center, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-masked trial was initiated by Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet at 13 sites in North America and Europe. Subjects diagnosed with type 1 diabetes and with sufficient C-peptide within 3 months of diagnosis were randomized to either MMF alone, MMF plus DZB, or placebo, and then followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was the geometric mean area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide from the 2-h mixed meal tolerance test. RESULTS One hundred and twenty-six subjects were randomized and treated during the trial. The geometric mean C-peptide AUC at 2 years was unaffected by MMF alone or MMF plus DZB versus placebo. Adverse events were more frequent in the active therapy groups relative to the control group, but not significantly. CONCLUSIONS Neither MMF alone nor MMF in combination with DZB had an effect on the loss of C-peptide in subjects with new-onset type 1 diabetes. Higher doses or more targeted immunotherapies may be needed to affect the autoimmune process

The risk of progression to type 1 diabetes is highly variable in individuals with multiple autoantibodies following screening

Aims/hypothesis: Young children who develop multiple autoantibodies (mAbs) are at very high risk for type 1 diabetes. We assessed whether a population with mAbs detected by screening is also at very high risk, and how risk varies according to age, type of autoantibodies and metabolic status. Methods: Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention participants with mAbs (n = 1815; age, 12.35 ± 9.39 years; range, 1-49 years) were analysed. Type 1 diabetes risk was assessed according to age, autoantibody type/number (insulin autoantibodies [IAA], glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen-2 autoantibodies [IA-2A] or zinc transporter 8 autoantibodies [ZnT8A]) and Index60 (composite measure of fasting C-peptide, 60 min glucose and 60 min C-peptide). Cox regression and cumulative incidence curves were utilised in this cohort study. Results: Age was inversely related to type 1 diabetes risk in those with mAbs (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.96, 0.99]). Among participants with 2 autoantibodies, those with GADA had less risk (HR 0.35 [95% CI 0.22, 0.57]) and those with IA-2A had higher risk (HR 2.82 [95% CI 1.76, 4.51]) of type 1 diabetes. Those with IAA and GADA had only a 17% 5 year risk of type 1 diabetes. The risk was significantly lower for those with Index60 <1.0 (HR 0.23 [95% CI 0.19, 0.30]) vs those with Index60 values ≥1.0. Among the 12% (225/1815) ≥12.0 years of age with GADA positivity, IA-2A negativity and Index60 <1.0, the 5 year risk of type 1 diabetes was 8%. Conclusions/interpretation: Type 1 diabetes risk varies substantially according to age, autoantibody type and metabolic status in individuals screened for mAbs. An appreciable proportion of older children and adults with mAbs appear to have a low risk of progressing to type 1 diabetes at 5 years. With this knowledge, clinical trials of type 1 diabetes prevention can better target those most likely to progress

Intracellular bacillary burden reflects a burst size for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in vivo

We previously reported that Mycobacterium tuberculosis triggers macrophage necrosis in vitro at a threshold intracellular load of ~25 bacilli. This suggests a model for tuberculosis where bacilli invading lung macrophages at low multiplicity of infection proliferate to burst size and spread to naïve phagocytes for repeated cycles of replication and cytolysis. The current study evaluated that model in vivo, an environment significantly more complex than in vitro culture. In the lungs of mice infected with M. tuberculosis by aerosol we observed three distinct mononuclear leukocyte populations (CD11b(-) CD11c(+/hi), CD11b(+/lo) CD11c(lo/-), CD11b(+/hi) CD11c(+/hi)) and neutrophils hosting bacilli. Four weeks after aerosol challenge, CD11b(+/hi) CD11c(+/hi) mononuclear cells and neutrophils were the predominant hosts for M. tuberculosis while CD11b(+/lo) CD11c(lo/-) cells assumed that role by ten weeks. Alveolar macrophages (CD11b(-) CD11c(+/hi)) were a minority infected cell type at both time points. The burst size model predicts that individual lung phagocytes would harbor a range of bacillary loads with most containing few bacilli, a smaller proportion containing many bacilli, and few or none exceeding a burst size load. Bacterial load per cell was enumerated in lung monocytic cells and neutrophils at time points after aerosol challenge of wild type and interferon-γ null mice. The resulting data fulfilled those predictions, suggesting a median in vivo burst size in the range of 20 to 40 bacilli for monocytic cells. Most heavily burdened monocytic cells were nonviable, with morphological features similar to those observed after high multiplicity challenge in vitro: nuclear condensation without fragmentation and disintegration of cell membranes without apoptotic vesicle formation. Neutrophils had a narrow range and lower peak bacillary burden than monocytic cells and some exhibited cell death with release of extracellular neutrophil traps. Our studies suggest that burst size cytolysis is a major cause of infection-induced mononuclear cell death in tuberculosis

Dysglycemia and Index60 as Prediagnostic End Points for Type 1 Diabetes Prevention Trials

OBJECTIVE: We assessed dysglycemia and a T1D Diagnostic Index60 (Index60) ≥1.00 (on the basis of fasting C-peptide, 60-min glucose, and 60-min C-peptide levels) as prediagnostic end points for type 1 diabetes among Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study participants. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Two cohorts were analyzed: 1) baseline normoglycemic oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) with an incident dysglycemic OGTT and 2) baseline Index60 <1.00 OGTTs with an incident Index60 ≥1.00 OGTT. Incident dysglycemic OGTTs were divided into those with (DYS/IND+) and without (DYS/IND-) concomitant Index60 ≥1.00. Incident Index60 ≥1.00 OGTTs were divided into those with (IND/DYS+) and without (IND/DYS-) concomitant dysglycemia. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence for type 1 diabetes was greater after IND/DYS- than after DYS/IND- (P < 0.01). Within the normoglycemic cohort, the cumulative incidence of type 1 diabetes was higher after DYS/IND+ than after DYS/IND- (P < 0.001), whereas within the Index60 <1.00 cohort, the cumulative incidence after IND/DYS+ and after IND/DYS- did not differ significantly. Among nonprogressors, type 1 diabetes risk at the last OGTT was greater for IND/DYS- than for DYS/IND- (P < 0.001). Hazard ratios (HRs) of DYS/IND- with age and 30- to 0-min C-peptide were positive (P < 0.001 for both), whereas HRs of type 1 diabetes with these variables were inverse (P < 0.001 for both). In contrast, HRs of IND/DYS- and type 1 diabetes with age and 30- to 0-min C-peptide were consistent (all inverse [P < 0.01 for all]). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that incident dysglycemia without Index60 ≥1.00 is a suboptimal prediagnostic end point for type 1 diabetes. Measures that include both glucose and C-peptide levels, such as Index60 ≥1.00, appear better suited as prediagnostic end points

CRISPR interference interrogation of COPD GWAS genes reveals the functional significance of desmoplakin in iPSC-derived alveolar epithelial cells

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified dozens of loci associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) susceptibility; however, the function of associated genes in the cell type(s) affected in disease remains poorly understood, partly due to a lack of cell models that recapitulate human alveolar biology. Here, we apply CRISPR interference to interrogate the function of nine genes implicated in COPD by GWAS in induced pluripotent stem cell–derived type 2 alveolar epithelial cells (iAT2s). We find that multiple genes implicated by GWAS affect iAT2 function, including differentiation potential, maturation, and/or proliferation. Detailed characterization of the GWAS gene DSP demonstrates that it regulates iAT2 cell-cell junctions, proliferation, mitochondrial function, and response to cigarette smoke–induced injury. Our approach thus elucidates the biological function, as well as disease-relevant consequences of dysfunction, of genes implicated in COPD by GWAS in type 2 alveolar epithelial cells.This work was supported by a CJ Martin Early Career Fellowship from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council awarded to R.B.W.; NIH grant F30HL147426 awarded to K.M.A.; NIH grants U01TR001810, R01DK101501, and R01DK117940 awarded to A.A.W.; NIH grants R01HL135142, R01HL137927, and R01HL147148 awarded to M.H.C.; and NIH grants R01HL127200 and R01HL148667 awarded to X.Z

Rituximab, B-lymphocyte depletion, and preservation of beta-cell function

BACKGROUND: The immunopathogenesis of type 1 diabetes mellitus is associated with T-lymphocyte autoimmunity. However, there is growing evidence that B lymphocytes play a role in many T-lymphocyte-mediated diseases. It is possible to achieve selective depletion of B lymphocytes with rituximab, an anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody. This phase 2 study evaluated the role of B-lymphocyte depletion in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind study in which 87 patients between 8 and 40 years of age who had newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes were assigned to receive infusions of rituximab or placebo on days 1, 8, 15, and 22 of the study. The primary outcome, assessed 1 year after the first infusion, was the geometric mean area under the curve (AUC) for the serum C-peptide level during the first 2 hours of a mixed-meal tolerance test. Secondary outcomes included safety and changes in the glycated hemoglobin level and insulin dose. RESULTS: At 1 year, the mean AUC for the level of C peptide was significantly higher in the rituximab group than in the placebo group. The rituximab group also had significantly lower levels of glycated hemoglobin and required less insulin. Between 3 months and 12 months, the rate of decline in C-peptide levels in the rituximab group was significantly less than that in the placebo group. CD19+ B lymphocytes were depleted in patients in the rituximab group, but levels increased to 69% of baseline values at 12 months. More patients in the rituximab group than in the placebo group had adverse events, mostly grade 1 or grade 2, after the first infusion. The reactions appeared to be minimal with subsequent infusions. There was no increase in infections or neutropenia with rituximab. CONCLUSIONS: A four-dose course of rituximab partially preserved beta-cell function over a period of 1 year in patients with type 1 diabetes. The finding that B lymphocytes contribute to the pathogenesis of type 1 diabetes may open a new pathway for exploration in the treatment of patients with this condition

Home use of a bihormonal bionic pancreas versus insulin pump therapy in adults with type 1 diabetes: a multicentre randomised crossover trial

The safety and effectiveness of a continuous, day-and-night automated glycaemic control system using insulin and glucagon has not been shown in a free-living, home-use setting. We aimed to assess whether bihormonal bionic pancreas initialised only with body mass can safely reduce mean glycaemia and hypoglycaemia in adults with type 1 diabetes who were living at home and participating in their normal daily routines without restrictions on diet or physical activity

A cross-sectional study of osteocalcin and body fat measures among obese adolescents

Osteocalcin (OCN), a marker of osteoblast activity, has been implicated in the regulation of energy metabolism by the skeleton and thus may affect body fat measures. We examined the relationships of OCN to body fat measures and whether they vary according to markers of energy and vitamin D metabolism. Data was obtained from 58 obese adolescents aged 13–17.9 years (38 females, 8 black or African-American). We calculated total fat mass (FM) [dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)] and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) [computerized axial tomography (CT)]. Blood tests included leptin, OCN, 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], parathyroid hormone (PTH), thyroid function tests, and triglycerides. Markers of glucose metabolism were obtained from fasting and OGTT samples. Adolescents with 25(OH)D<20 ng/mL were considered deficient (n=17/58); none had high PTH (PTH≥65 pg/mL). OCN was associated with lower VAT (−84.27±33.89 mm2) and BMI (−0.10±0.05 kg/m2), not FM (p=0.597) in a core model including age, sex, race, geographic latitude, summer, height z-score, and tanner stage. Adding 25(OH)D deficiency and PTH attenuated the inverse association of OCN to VAT. We found a significant interaction of OCN and 25(OH)D deficiency on FM (0.37±0.18 kg, p=0.041) and BMI (0.28±0.10 kg/m2, p=0.007) in this adjusted model, which was further explained by leptin. Adding A1C to the core model modified the relationship of OCN to VAT (−93.08±35.05 mm2, p=0.011), which was further explained by HOMA-IR. In summary, these findings provide evidence for a relationship between OCN and body fat measures that is dependent on energy metabolism and vitamin D status among obese adolescents

High-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater provides insights into circulating variants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) likely emerged from a zoonotic spill-over event and has led to a global pandemic. The public health response has been predominantly informed by surveillance of symptomatic individuals and contact tracing, with quarantine, and other preventive measures have then been applied to mitigate further spread. Non-traditional methods of surveillance such as genomic epidemiology and wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) have also been leveraged during this pandemic. Genomic epidemiology uses high-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to inform local and international transmission events, as well as the diversity of circulating variants. WBE uses wastewater to analyse community spread, as it is known that SARS-CoV-2 is shed through bodily excretions. Since both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals contribute to wastewater inputs, we hypothesized that the resultant pooled sample of population-wide excreta can provide a more comprehensive picture of SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity circulating in a community than clinical testing and sequencing alone. In this study, we analysed 91 wastewater samples from 11 states in the USA, where the majority of samples represent Maricopa County, Arizona (USA). With the objective of assessing the viral diversity at a population scale, we undertook a single-nucleotide variant (SNV) analysis on data from 52 samples with \u3e90% SARS-CoV-2 genome coverage of sequence reads, and compared these SNVs with those detected in genomes sequenced from clinical patients. We identified 7973 SNVs, of which 548 were “novel” SNVs that had not yet been identified in the global clinical-derived data as of 17th June 2020 (the day after our last wastewater sampling date). However, between 17th of June 2020 and 20th November 2020, almost half of the novel SNVs have since been detected in clinical-derived data. Using the combination of SNVs present in each sample, we identified the more probable lineages present in that sample and compared them to lineages observed in North America prior to our sampling dates. The wastewater-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequence data indicates there were more lineages circulating across the sampled communities than represented in the clinical-derived data. Principal coordinate analyses identified patterns in population structure based on genetic variation within the sequenced samples, with clear trends associated with increased diversity likely due to a higher number of infected individuals relative to the sampling dates. We demonstrate that genetic correlation analysis combined with SNVs analysis using wastewater sampling can provide a comprehensive snapshot of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic population structure circulating within a community, which might not be observed if relying solely on clinical cases