A comparison of statistical emulation methodologies for multi-wave calibration of environmental models

Expensive computer codes, particularly those used simulating environmental or geological processes such as climate models, require calibration (sometimes called tuning). When calibrating expensive simulators using uncertainty quantification methods, it is usually necessary to use a statistical model called an emulator in place of the computer code when running the calibration algorithm. Though emulators based on Gaussian processes are typically many orders of magnitude faster to evaluate than the simulator they mimic, many applications have sought to speed up the computations by using regression-only emulators within the calculations instead, arguing that the extra sophistication brought using the Gaussian process is not worth the extra computational power. This was the case for the analysis that produced the UK climate projections in 2009. In this paper we compare the effectiveness of both emulation approaches upon a multi-wave calibration framework that is becoming popular in the climate modelling community called \history matching". We find that Gaussian processes offer significant benefits to the reduction of parametric uncertainty over regression-only approaches. We find that in a multi-wave experiment, a combination of regression-only emulators initially, followed by Gaussian process emulators for refocussing experiments can be nearly as effective as using Gaussian processes throughout for a fraction of the computational cost. We also discover a number of design and emulator-dependent features of the multi-wave history matching approach that can cause apparent, yet premature, convergence of our estimates of parametric uncertainty. We compare these approaches to calibration in idealised examples and apply it to a well-known geological reservoir mode

Reintegrating Biology through the Nexus of Energy, Information, and Matter

Information, energy, and matter are fundamental properties of all levels of biological organization, and life emerges from the continuous flux of matter, energy, and information. This perspective piece defines and explains each of the three pillars of this nexus. We propose that a quantitative characterization of the complex interconversions between matter, energy, and information that compose this nexus will help us derive biological insights that connect phenomena across different levels of biological organization. We articulate examples from multiple biological scales that highlight how this nexus approach leads to a more complete understanding of the biological system. Metrics of energy, information, and matter can provide a common currency that helps link phenomena across levels of biological organization. The propagation of energy and information through levels of biological organization can result in emergent properties and system-wide changes that impact other hierarchical levels. Deeper consideration of measured imbalances in energy, information, and matter can help researchers identify key factors that influence system function at one scale, highlighting avenues to link phenomena across levels of biological organization and develop predictive models of biological systems

Vertical integration and firm boundaries : the evidence

Since Ronald H. Coase's (1937) seminal paper, a rich set of theories has been developed that deal with firm boundaries in vertical or input–output structures. In the last twenty-five years, empirical evidence that can shed light on those theories also has been accumulating. We review the findings of empirical studies that have addressed two main interrelated questions: First, what types of transactions are best brought within the firm and, second, what are the consequences of vertical integration decisions for economic outcomes such as prices, quantities, investment, and profits. Throughout, we highlight areas of potential cross-fertilization and promising areas for future work

Melting Alpine Glaciers Enrich High-Elevation Lakes with Reactive Nitrogen

Alpine glaciers have receded substantially over the last century in many regions of the world. Resulting changes in glacial runoff not only affect the hydrological cycle, but can also alter the physical (i.e., turbidity from glacial flour) and biogeochemical properties of downstream ecosystems. Here we compare nutrient concentrations, transparency gradients, algal biomass, and fossil diatom species richness in two sets of high-elevation lakes: those fed by snowpack melt alone (SF lakes) and those fed by both glacial and snowpack meltwaters (GSF lakes). We found that nitrate (NO3-) concentrations in the GSF lakes were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than in SF lakes. Although nitrogen (N) limitation is common in alpine lakes, algal biomass was lower in highly N-enriched GSF lakes than in the N-poor SF lakes. Contrary to expectations, GSF lakes were more transparent than SF lakes to ultraviolet and equally transparent to photosynthetically active radiation.Sediment diatom assemblages had lower taxonomic richness in the GSF lakes, a feature that has persisted over the last century. Our results demonstrate that the presence of glaciers on alpine watersheds more strongly influences NO3- concentrations in high-elevation lake ecosystems than any other geomorphic or biogeographic characteristic

Effects of UV radiation on aquatic ecosystems and interactions with other environmental factors

Interactions between climate change and UV radiation are having strong effects on aquatic ecosystems due to feedback between temperature, UV radiation, and greenhouse gas concentration. Higher air temperatures and incoming solar radiation are increasing the surface water temperatures of lakes and oceans, with many large lakes warming at twice the rate of regional air temperatures. Warmer oceans are changing habitats and the species composition of many marine ecosystems. For some, such as corals, the temperatures may become too high. Temperature differences between surface and deep waters are becoming greater. This increase in thermal stratification makes the surface layers shallower and leads to stronger barriers to upward mixing of nutrients necessary for photosynthesis. This also results in exposure to higher levels of UV radiation of surface-dwelling organisms. In polar and alpine regions decreases in the duration and amount of snow and ice cover on lakes and oceans are also increasing exposure to UV radiation. In contrast, in lakes and coastal oceans the concentration and colour of UV-absorbing dissolved organic matter (DOM) from terrestrial ecosystems is increasing with greater runoff from higher precipitation and more frequent extreme storms. DOM thus creates a refuge from UV radiation that can enable UV-sensitive species to become established. At the same time, decreased UV radiation in such surface waters reduces the capacity of solar UV radiation to inactivate viruses and other pathogens and parasites, and increases the difficulty and price of purifying drinking water for municipal supplies. Solar UV radiation breaks down the DOM, making it more available for microbial processing, resulting in the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In addition to screening solar irradiance, DOM, when sunlit in surface water, can lead to the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Increases in carbon dioxide are in turn acidifying the oceans and inhibiting the ability of many marine organisms to form UV-absorbing exoskeletons. Many aquatic organisms use adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects of solar UV-B radiation (280–315 nm), including vertical migration, crust formation, synthesis of UV-absorbing substances, and enzymatic and non-enzymatic quenching of ROS. Whether or not genetic adaptation to changes in the abiotic factors plays a role in mitigating stress and damage has not been determined. This assessment addresses how our knowledge of the interactive effects of UV radiation and climate change factors on aquatic ecosystems has advanced in the past four years.Fil: Häder, Donat P.. Universitat Erlangen-Nuremberg; AlemaniaFil: Williamson, Craig E.. Miami University; Estados UnidosFil: Wängberg, Sten Åke. University of Gothenburg. Department of Biological and Environmental Science; SueciaFil: Rautio, Milla. Université du Québec à Chicoutimi. Département des Sciences Fondamentales and Centre for Northern Studies; CanadáFil: Rose, Kevin C.. University Of Wisconsin; Estados UnidosFil: Gao, Kunshan. Xiamen University. State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science; ChinaFil: Helbling, Eduardo Walter. Fundación Playa Unión. Estación de Fotobiología Playa Unión; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; ArgentinaFil: Sinha, Rajeshwar P.. Banaras Hindu University. Centre of Advanced Study in Botany; IndiaFil: Worrest, Robert. Columbia University; Estados Unido

Melting Alpine Glaciers Enrich High-Elevation Lakes with Reactive Nitrogen

Alpine glaciers have receded substantially over the last century in many regions of the world. Resulting changes in glacial runoff not only affect the hydrological cycle, but can also alter the physical (i.e., turbidity from glacial flour) and biogeochemical properties of downstream ecosystems. Here we compare nutrient concentrations, transparency gradients, algal biomass, and fossil diatom species richness in two sets of high-elevation lakes: those fed by snowpack melt alone (SF lakes) and those fed by both glacial and snowpack meltwaters (GSF lakes). We found that nitrate (NO3-) concentrations in the GSF lakes were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than in SF lakes. Although nitrogen (N) limitation is common in alpine lakes, algal biomass was lower in highly N-enriched GSF lakes than in the N-poor SF lakes. Contrary to expectations, GSF lakes were more transparent than SF lakes to ultraviolet and equally transparent to photosynthetically active radiation.Sediment diatom assemblages had lower taxonomic richness in the GSF lakes, a feature that has persisted over the last century. Our results demonstrate that the presence of glaciers on alpine watersheds more strongly influences NO3- concentrations in high-elevation lake ecosystems than any other geomorphic or biogeographic characteristic

'Juggling amidst complexity' – hospice staff's experience of providing palliative care for infants referred from a neonatal unit

Hospice has been pivotal to children's palliative care provision in the United Kingdom (UK) for more than 3 decades. Some hospices have recently expanded to include care of infants transferred from neonatal units as well as antenatal referrals. Despite developments evidence suggests hospice care is often not offered to parents in neonatal units (NNU). This study examines perspectives of 17 staff from 3 children's hospices regarding the challenges and opportunities caring for infants in hospice. Data was collected from 3 focus groups and analysed using a thematic approach. Findings suggest that hospice staff juggle many complex issues when caring for infants at the end-of-life. Such issues centre round the referral process from hospital services borne from an apparent reluctance of hospital staff to let go, through involving hospice. Education, partnership working, planning for all possible outcomes seems crucial in further developing quality palliative care for infants and their families